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PROG Holdings Inc. (PRG) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$38.19 +9.90% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.80

PROG Holdings Inc. (PRG) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.36B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PRG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, PROG Holdings Inc. (NYSE: PRG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $38.19 (+9.90% 1D, market cap $1.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PRG ranks #174 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PRG compare to UPBD and ARLO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), PRG carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 37.3%. By comparison, UPBD (Upbound Group Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 30.7%, cap $1.21B) and ARLO (Arlo Technologies Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 106.3x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $1.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRG leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while PRG leads on capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PRG?
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Per PRG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001808834), PROG Holdings Inc. generated $2.41B in revenue (+0.4% YoY), $146.8M in net income, and $324.9M in free cash flow against $1.61B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $38.80 (+1.59%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 13.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk D+
Cash (19)Whales (11)SEC (14)Macro (8)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target
$50 Bull$40 Base$31 Bear
📬 FREE PRG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PRG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PRG SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 13.5% FCF Margin ($324.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (60.6) create a -12 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$30.58+1.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$30.92-4.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$29.61+29% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$38.19+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PRG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, PRG faces multiple-compression risk if 8.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($33.83) or 200D SMA ($35.68) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($40.08) toward Bear Floor ($31.26).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PRG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PRG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±11.4%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (PRG)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for PRG.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating PRG & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on PRG
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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PRG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.41%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $33.48H $38.19L $33.48C $38.19VOL 1.01M
RES: $43.73SUP: $24.92SMA50: $33.83SMA200: $35.68
$49.31$42.77$36.23$29.69$23.15RES $43.73SUP $24.92$38.192026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PRG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PRG Butterfly Map → + Track PRG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-3.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PRG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PRG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PRG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PRG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #174 of 1011 ⚔️ UPBD vs PRG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (PRG vs. UPBD, ARLO, KPLT, CTOS)

Industry: Diversified Commercial Services (32 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, PROG Holdings Inc. (PRG) ranks #174 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #471 by equity capitalization ($1.36B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRG leads on earnings valuation at 8.9x trailing P/E, while PRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 37.3% ROIC and — gross margin. UPBD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with PRG at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PRG ACTIVE
PROG Holdings Inc.
C+ 69/100 8.9x — 37.3% +9.90% $1.36B Benchmark Subject
UPBD
Upbound Group Inc.
B- 70/100 16.0x 48.4% 30.7% +10.34% $1.21B /upbd-vs-prg →
ARLO
Arlo Technologies Inc.
C 63/100 106.3x 44.0% 6.0% -2.35% $1.56B /arlo-vs-prg →
KPLT
Katapult Holdings Inc.
D 47/100 — 17.7% -0.8% +6.46% $880.7M /kplt-vs-prg →
CTOS
Custom Truck One Source Inc.
C- 60/100 — 28.5% 4.1% +0.28% $2.41B /ctos-vs-prg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001808834

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), PROG Holdings Inc. (PRG) reported GAAP revenue of $2.41B (+0.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.40B , and +3.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $146.8M, operating cash flow of $335.0M, and free cash flow of $324.9M (+149.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, PRG closed FY2025 with $1.61B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.21, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.41B $146.8M $335.0M $324.9M $1.61B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.40B $197.2M $138.5M $130.2M $1.51B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.34B $138.8M $204.2M $204.2M — —

3. PRG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PRG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, PROG Holdings Inc. (NYSE: PRG) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $38.19 (+9.90% 1D, market cap $1.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PRG ranks #174 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PRG compare to UPBD and ARLO in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Diversified Commercial Services), PRG carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 37.3%. By comparison, UPBD (Upbound Group Inc.) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 16.0x, ROIC 30.7%, cap $1.21B) and ARLO (Arlo Technologies Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 106.3x, ROIC 6.0%, cap $1.56B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRG leads on earnings multiple (8.9x) while PRG leads on capital efficiency (37.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PRG?

Per PRG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001808834), PROG Holdings Inc. generated $2.41B in revenue (+0.4% YoY), $146.8M in net income, and $324.9M in free cash flow against $1.61B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PRG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PRG last traded at $38.19 (+9.90% on volume of 1,281,912 shares), positioning the stock +12.89% above its 50-day simple moving average ($33.83) and +7.03% above its 200-day simple moving average ($35.68). Across its 52-week range of $25.18 to $47.73, PRG sits at the 57.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.4% ($33.84 to $42.54).

Direct Sub-Reports: PRG RQD Cockpit PRG 12M Forecast PRG Earnings & Move PRG Dividends & DRIP PRG Insiders & 13F PRG Whale Options PRG Profit Sankey PRG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

PRG — PROG Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

PROG Holdings Inc. (PRG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $38.19 (+9.90% 1D, market capitalization $1.36B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (19/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 37.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 8.6%, and free cash flow yield of 24.89%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (17/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.21, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

PROG Holdings Inc. (PRG) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Diversified Commercial Services industry. Revenue, margin, and cash-flow figures in the financials section indicate an operating business with reported revenue of $2.41B in FY 2025.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), PROG Holdings Inc. (PRG) reported $2.41B in annual revenue (up from $2.40B in FY2024, +0.4% YoY) and $146.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.34B revenue, $138.8M net income) through FY2025, PRG scaled operating cash flow to $335.0M and free cash flow to $324.9M, backed by $1.61B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 19/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $25.18 – $47.73 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 8.9x trailing P/E and 4.6x EV/EBITDA against 8.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Diversified Commercial Services (Consumer Discretionary), PRG carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can PRG sustain or expand its 8.6% operating margin and 37.3% ROIC against Diversified Commercial Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.41B and free cash flow of $324.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is PRG's 8.3x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

PRG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for PROG Holdings Inc. (PRG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PRG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PRG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $38.19?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PRG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PRG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $41.00 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported FCF nearly tripled from $130.2M in FY 2024 to $324.9M in FY 2025 while the stock trades at 8.9x TTM earnings and a 24.89% FCF

Here is why I am bullish on PRG here at $34.75: Reported FCF nearly tripled from $130.2M in FY 2024 to $324.9M in FY 2025 while the stock trades at 8.9x TTM earnings and a 24.89% FCF yield.. Compare PRG's 8.6% operating margin and 37.3% ROIC against the rest of Diversified Commercial Services. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $33.01 are getting bought.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on 8.9x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Diversified Commercial Services. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $28.49 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $34.75

The ChartMill headline reports a Q3 miss and cut guidance, and the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and Macro Regime Fit pillar of 9/20 signal

The ChartMill headline reports a Q3 miss and cut guidance, and the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and Macro Regime Fit pillar of 9/20 signal limited forensic and macro support.. Look at the math on PRG: paying 8.9x trailing P/E for 37.3% ROIC and 8.6% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Diversified Commercial Services demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $30.58 before getting long.

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