Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4% Move

$22.44 -0.22% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.39

Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $544.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PDLB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Ponce Financial Group Inc. (NASDAQ: PDLB) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $22.44 (-0.22% 1D, market cap $544.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, PDLB ranks #156 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PDLB compare to NRIM and FMAO in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), PDLB carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.1%. By comparison, NRIM (Northrim BanCorp Inc) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $530.5M) and FMAO (Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $501.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NRIM leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while NRIM leads on capital efficiency (19.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PDLB?
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Per PDLB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001874071), Ponce Financial Group Inc. generated $1.35B in revenue (+6.1% YoY), $27.6M in net income, and $54.6M in free cash flow against $3.22B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $22.39 (-0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510068
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C
Cash (13)Whales (15)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
$28 Bull$23 Base$18 Bear
📬 FREE PDLB RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PDLB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PDLB SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (74) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
60
Grade C$20.11+0.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
63
Grade C+$20.15+8.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$21.78+3% Next Q
Current
68
Grade C+$22.44+1.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PDLB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, PDLB faces multiple-compression risk if 19.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.54) or 200D SMA ($18.79) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($23.45) toward Bear Floor ($18.29).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PDLB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PDLB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~57 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4% Swing Band

±$0.90 Expected Swing
$21.54 (-4%)Spot $22.44$23.34 (+4%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

PDLB Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 68/100

Trailing EPS: $1.14 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (68/100)Model Risk Weight (32/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$1.35B$27.6M$54.6M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$1.28B$10.3M$4.5M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$97.9M$3.4M$6.5M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating PDLB & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on PDLB
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
PDLB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +28.97%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $22.68H $22.68L $22.44C $22.44VOL 247.4K
RES: $22.91SUP: $20.10SMA50: $20.54SMA200: $18.79
$23.30$21.26$19.21$17.16$15.11RES $22.91SUP $20.10$22.442026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PDLB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
13.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PDLB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PDLB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PDLB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PDLB)

Financials Rank #156 of 1096 ⚔️ NRIM vs PDLB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (PDLB vs. NRIM, FMAO, KRNY, HTB)

Industry: Savings Institutions (33 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) ranks #156 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #680 by equity capitalization ($544.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NRIM leads on earnings valuation at 8.3x trailing P/E, while NRIM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.8% ROIC and — gross margin. PDLB currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PDLB ACTIVE
Ponce Financial Group Inc.
C+ 68/100 19.9x — 5.1% -0.22% $544.0M Benchmark Subject
NRIM
Northrim BanCorp Inc
C 62/100 8.3x — 19.8% +1.72% $530.5M /nrim-vs-pdlb →
FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc.
C+ 68/100 15.3x — 9.0% +1.26% $501.2M /fmao-vs-pdlb →
KRNY
Kearny Financial Corp
D+ 54/100 23.0x — 3.4% +2.63% $592.2M /krny-vs-pdlb →
HTB
HomeTrust Bancshares Inc.
C- 60/100 11.6x — 10.7% +2.46% $732.8M /htb-vs-pdlb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001874071

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) reported GAAP revenue of $1.35B (+6.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.28B , and +1282.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $27.6M, operating cash flow of $55.6M, and free cash flow of $54.6M (+1115.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, PDLB closed FY2025 with $3.22B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.35B $27.6M $55.6M $54.6M $3.22B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.28B $10.3M $7.2M $4.5M $3.04B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $97.9M $3.4M $6.5M $6.5M — —

3. PDLB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PDLB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Ponce Financial Group Inc. (NASDAQ: PDLB) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $22.44 (-0.22% 1D, market cap $544.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, PDLB ranks #156 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PDLB compare to NRIM and FMAO in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Savings Institutions), PDLB carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 19.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.1%. By comparison, NRIM (Northrim BanCorp Inc) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 8.3x, ROIC 19.8%, cap $530.5M) and FMAO (Farmers & Merchants Bancorp Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $501.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NRIM leads on earnings multiple (8.3x) while NRIM leads on capital efficiency (19.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PDLB?

Per PDLB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001874071), Ponce Financial Group Inc. generated $1.35B in revenue (+6.1% YoY), $27.6M in net income, and $54.6M in free cash flow against $3.22B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PDLB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PDLB last traded at $22.44 (-0.22% on volume of 284,579 shares), positioning the stock +9.25% above its 50-day simple moving average ($20.54) and +19.43% above its 200-day simple moving average ($18.79). Across its 52-week range of $14.01 to $22.81, PDLB sits at the 95.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 74.0 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.0% ($21.54 to $23.34).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 68/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

PDLB — Ponce Financial Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:35:09Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

PDLB scores 68 out of 100, a C+ grade labeled "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 (ROIC 5.1%; FCF yield 9.96%), Whale 13F Flow at 15/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 15/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 12/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 5/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). For a prospective investor, the strongest pillars are the two flow-based pillars, which together carry the score's upper-neutral tilt. The fundamental and balance-sheet pillars sit in the middle of their ranges, and the macro pillar is the weakest, reflecting a market-neutral beta. The upside case rests on the FCF yield of 9.96% and institutional and insider positioning; the valuation tradeoff is a trailing P/E of 19.9 against a forward P/E of 18.5, with a 52-week range of $13.91 to $22.81 and the price at $22.68 near the top of that band. The rating's "Watch for Breakout" label signals that the score is not yet a clear buy signal.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Savings Institutions industry..5B. —

Net income rose from $3.4M in FY 2023 to $27.6M in FY 2025, and free cash flow reached $54.6M in FY 2025. ROIC is 5.1%, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, and the Piotroski F-Score is 5 out of 9. Debt/Equity is 0.5, and cash was $126.2M at FY 2025 versus $139.8M at FY 2024.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case: Free cash flow reached $54.6M in FY 2025 against a 9.96% FCF yield, with net income rising from $3.4M in FY 2023 to $27.6M in FY 2025. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 (ROIC 5.1%, FCF yield 9.96%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $14.01 – $22.81 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Q3 earnings lagged estimates, and the $18.2 million quarterly profit was helped by a one-time $10.5 million tax benefit. Investors must weigh 19.9x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector-level context provided is the Financials / Savings Institutions classification and the beta of 1.0, which indicates market-level sensitivity.

  • Key Question #1: What is the company's revenue and operating income, given both are reported as — in the SEC financials?
  • Key Question #2: What drove the Q3 earnings miss, and how much of the quarter's profit depends on the one-time $10.5 million tax benefit?
  • Key Question #3: What are the FY 2025 debt and EPS figures, which are reported as N/A?

PDLB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ponce Financial Group Inc. (PDLB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PDLB Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PDLB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $22.44?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PDLB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PDLB:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $28.11 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Free cash flow reached $54.6M in FY 2025 against a 9.96% FCF yield, with net income rising from $3.4M in FY 2023 to $27.6M in FY 2025.

Don't sleep on PDLB's setup in Financials. Free cash flow reached $54.6M in FY 2025 against a 9.96% FCF yield, with net income rising from $3.4M in FY 2023 to $27.6M in FY 2025.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (68/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Shorting a 15/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $22.49 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

FA FadeTheHype Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $17.77 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $22.49

Q3 earnings lagged estimates, and the $18.2 million quarterly profit was helped by a one-time $10.5 million tax benefit.

Fading this rally in PDLB at $22.49. Q3 earnings lagged estimates, and the $18.2 million quarterly profit was helped by a one-time $10.5 million tax benefit.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $22.49 (52-wk range $14.01–$22.81), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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