PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$14.03 -3.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.92

PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $9.84B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PAYP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (NASDAQ: PAYP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $14.03 (-3.44% 1D, market cap $9.84B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PAYP ranks #291 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PAYP compare to GRAB and HQY in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), PAYP carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, GRAB (Grab Holdings Limited (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $11.32B) and HQY (HealthEquity Inc.) posts a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 39.0x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $8.38B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GRAB leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while ETSY leads on capital efficiency (33.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PAYP?
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For PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #291 in Consumer Discretionary, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.92 (-0.81%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 6.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510062
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-
Cash (12)Whales (13)SEC (13)Macro (15)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
$26 Bull$14 Base$11 Bear
📬 FREE PAYP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PAYP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PAYP SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 15% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 35 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.9% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
70
Grade B$15.71-0.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
67
Grade B-$15.68-4.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$15.02-6.6% Next Q
Current
62
Grade C$14.03+0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (70) → C (62)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PAYP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, PAYP faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($15.95) or 200D SMA ($17.19) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($14.28) toward Bear Floor ($11.14).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PAYP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PAYP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • Trailing 12 Months

How PAYP Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$275.5M (6.9% FCF Margin)
Revenue$4.00BGross Profit $2.08B (52%)Cost of Sales $1.92BOp Profit $1.08B (27%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $998.4MNet Profit$865.3M (21.6%)Tax/Other $216.3M
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring PAYP)

  • ✓Walkthrough of PAYP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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PAYP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -36.63%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-10-30O $14.20H $14.29L $13.88C $14.03VOL 568.9K
RES: $20.96SUP: $14.29SMA50: $15.95SMA200: $17.19
$24.18$20.90$17.62$14.33$11.05RES $20.96SUP $14.29$14.032026-04-302026-06-152026-07-312026-09-162026-10-30
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PAYP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PAYP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PAYP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PAYP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PAYP)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #291 of 1011 ⚔️ GRAB vs PAYP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (PAYP vs. GRAB, HQY, ETSY, ANDG)

Industry: Business Services (90 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP) ranks #291 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #174 by equity capitalization ($9.84B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GRAB leads on earnings valuation at 32.8x trailing P/E, while ETSY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.3% ROIC and 71.6% gross margin. HQY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 78/100 (B+) compared with PAYP at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PAYP ACTIVE
PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares
C 62/100 — — — -3.44% $9.84B Benchmark Subject
GRAB
Grab Holdings Limited (Class A)
D+ 53/100 32.8x — 9.9% -1.81% $11.32B /grab-vs-payp →
HQY
HealthEquity Inc.
B+ 78/100 39.0x 69.5% 9.3% +1.10% $8.38B /hqy-vs-payp →
ETSY
Etsy Inc.
B 74/100 48.4x 71.6% 33.3% -2.87% $7.90B /etsy-vs-payp →
ANDG
Andersen Group Inc. (Class A)
C 62/100 — — -28.9% +1.05% $7.39B /andg-vs-payp →

2. PAYP Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP) operates in Business Services (Consumer Discretionary) with an equity capitalization of $9.84B, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. PAYP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PAYP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (NASDAQ: PAYP) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $14.03 (-3.44% 1D, market cap $9.84B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PAYP ranks #291 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PAYP compare to GRAB and HQY in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), PAYP carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, GRAB (Grab Holdings Limited (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $11.32B) and HQY (HealthEquity Inc.) posts a B+ grade (78/100 RQD, P/E 39.0x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $8.38B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GRAB leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while ETSY leads on capital efficiency (33.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PAYP?

For PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #291 in Consumer Discretionary, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PAYP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PAYP last traded at $14.03 (-3.44% on volume of 568,928 shares), positioning the stock -12.04% below its 50-day simple moving average ($15.95) and -18.38% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.19). Across its 52-week range of $12.07 to $24.89, PAYP sits at the 15.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($12.92 to $15.14).

PAYP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP)?

In Trailing 12 Months, PAYP converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 27% operating margin, and $275.5M in free cash flow (6.9% FCF margin).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 62/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

PAYP — PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T14:10:27Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, PAYP scores 62 out of 100, earning a letter grade of C and the verdict label "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 12 / 20. The pillar is noted with ROIC of 0% and FCF yield of 0%. For a prospective investor, this indicates the rating does not credit the business with a demonstrated return on invested capital or free-cash-flow generation at the present time, which removes one of the most common sources of long-term valuation support.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 13 / 20. The pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The underlying holder detail is not itemized in the source data, so the score can be read as moderate institutional interest without the specifics behind it.
  • Insider Conviction: 9 / 20. The pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. This is the lowest-scoring pillar and suggests insider and congressional activity provides limited conviction support.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 15 / 20. Per the rating, beta is 1.0 and the pillar reflects sector sensitivity. The stock is therefore rated as moving broadly in line with the market, with no outsized macro sensitivity identified in the rating inputs.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 13 / 20. The pillar cites an Altman Z of 2.5, a Piotroski F of 6/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5. These figures describe a balance sheet with mixed forensic signals: the Z-score and F-score point to a middling-to-reasonable financial position, and leverage is moderate.

Taken together, the rating implies a balanced risk-reward profile: the balance sheet and macro fit support the score, while the absent cash-engine returns and weak insider conviction weigh on it. Valuation tradeoffs are difficult to assess because forward and trailing earnings multiples are not available in source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Two market-wire items are listed, both rated YELLOW by the source feed:

  • A TradingView report covering PAYP market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts, published about one hour before the data timestamp.
  • A report titled as a Q3 2026 earnings item stating EPS topped estimate while revenue details remain limited, published about three hours before the data timestamp, attributed to a www.dars.gov.et source.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Risk watch item: the earnings headline notes revenue details remain limited, which leaves the revenue trajectory unverified from source data.

Open Questions

  • What are PayPay's reported revenue, operating income, and net income for recent periods, given that the earnings headline notes limited revenue detail?
  • Why is ROIC and FCF yield reported as 0%, and does this reflect a true absence of returns or missing data?
  • What are the trailing and forward P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples, and how do they compare to the sector?
  • Who are the institutional holders and insiders driving the whale and insider pillar scores?
  • What analyst consensus ratings and price targets exist for PAYP?

PAYP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares (PAYP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PAYP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PAYP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $14.03?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PAYP 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PAYP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $15.15 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is PAYP (C • RQD 62/100) a Buy at $14.03?

Welcome to the PAYP (PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 62/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Business Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.50 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $14.03

Pump the brakes on PAYP — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on PAYP, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless PayPay Corporation American Depository Shares expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $16.27 (+16.0%)
Spot @ $14.03

PAYP cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on PAYP, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Business Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $14.03 (52-wk range $12.07 - $24.89), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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