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Open Text Corporation (OTEX) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$26.52 -0.26% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $26.46

Open Text Corporation (OTEX) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $6.66B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OTEX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OTEX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Open Text Corporation (NASDAQ: OTEX) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $26.52 (-0.26% 1D, market cap $6.66B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, OTEX ranks #226 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OTEX compare to DOX and RNG in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (EDP Services), OTEX carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.6x, gross margin of 72.3%, and ROIC of 7.7%. By comparison, DOX (Amdocs Limited) holds a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 13.6x, ROIC 23.6%, cap $6.78B) and RNG (RingCentral Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 16.8%, cap $6.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DOX leads on earnings multiple (13.6x) while DOX leads on capital efficiency (23.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OTEX?
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Per OTEX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001002638), Open Text Corporation generated $5.17B in revenue (-10.4% YoY), $435.9M in net income, and $598.0M in free cash flow against $13.57B in total assets and $6.34B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $26.46 (-0.24%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 11.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510059
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk D
Cash (11)Whales (14)SEC (7)Macro (11)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target
$41 Bull$27 Base$21 Bear
📬 FREE OTEX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OTEX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OTEX SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.9% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 13 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
51
Grade C-$24.97+7.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
54
Grade C-$26.75+1.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$27.13-2.2% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$26.52+0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OTEX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, OTEX faces multiple-compression risk if 15.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 69.8% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($24.45) or 200D SMA ($23.83) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($26.64) toward Bear Floor ($20.78).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OTEX• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OTEX Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your OTEX Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $26.52: 377.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $20.78
$7,836
$-2,164 (-21.6%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $26.64
$10,045
+$45 (+0.5%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $41.11
$15,502
+$5,502 (+55.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$2874%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$3969%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$2458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (OTEX Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
OTEX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.56%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $27.07H $27.07L $26.52C $26.52VOL 1.78M
RES: $28.88SUP: $20.13SMA50: $24.45SMA200: $23.83
$31.18$28.09$25.00$21.91$18.82RES $28.88SUP $20.13$26.522026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OTEX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OTEX Butterfly Map → + Track OTEX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -10.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OTEX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OTEX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OTEX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OTEX)

Technology Rank #226 of 715 ⚔️ DOX vs OTEX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (OTEX vs. DOX, RNG, SAIC, EPAM)

Industry: EDP Services (163 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Open Text Corporation (OTEX) ranks #226 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #186 by equity capitalization ($6.66B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DOX leads on earnings valuation at 13.6x trailing P/E, while DOX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.6% ROIC and 35.1% gross margin. EPAM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 83/100 (A-) compared with OTEX at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
OTEX ACTIVE
Open Text Corporation
C- 59/100 15.6x 72.3% 7.7% -0.26% $6.66B Benchmark Subject
DOX
Amdocs Limited
B+ 77/100 13.6x 35.1% 23.6% +1.13% $6.78B /dox-vs-otex →
RNG
RingCentral Inc.
B 73/100 — 71.2% 16.8% -4.52% $6.88B /rng-vs-otex →
SAIC
Science Applications International Corporation
B 75/100 17.7x 12.0% 10.9% +0.69% $6.36B /saic-vs-otex →
EPAM
EPAM Systems Inc.
A- 83/100 18.4x 28.8% 17.1% +2.34% $7.25B /epam-vs-otex →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001002638 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Open Text Corporation (OTEX) reported GAAP revenue of $5.17B (-10.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.77B , and +15.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $435.9M, operating cash flow of $830.6M, and free cash flow of $598.0M (-15.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, OTEX closed FY2025 with $13.57B in total assets against $6.34B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.41, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-06-30 $5.17B $435.9M $830.6M $598.0M $13.57B $6.34B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-06-30 $5.77B $465.1M $967.7M $708.1M $13.73B $6.35B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-06-30 $4.48B $150.4M $779.2M $577.4M $5.38B $1.26B

3. OTEX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OTEX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Open Text Corporation (NASDAQ: OTEX) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $26.52 (-0.26% 1D, market cap $6.66B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, OTEX ranks #226 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OTEX compare to DOX and RNG in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (EDP Services), OTEX carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.6x, gross margin of 72.3%, and ROIC of 7.7%. By comparison, DOX (Amdocs Limited) holds a B+ grade (77/100 RQD, P/E 13.6x, ROIC 23.6%, cap $6.78B) and RNG (RingCentral Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 16.8%, cap $6.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, DOX leads on earnings multiple (13.6x) while DOX leads on capital efficiency (23.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OTEX?

Per OTEX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001002638), Open Text Corporation generated $5.17B in revenue (-10.4% YoY), $435.9M in net income, and $598.0M in free cash flow against $13.57B in total assets and $6.34B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OTEX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OTEX last traded at $26.52 (-0.26% on volume of 1,214,467 shares), positioning the stock +8.47% above its 50-day simple moving average ($24.45) and +11.29% above its 200-day simple moving average ($23.83). Across its 52-week range of $19.78 to $39.15, OTEX sits at the 34.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.9% ($24.96 to $28.08).

Direct Sub-Reports: OTEX RQD Cockpit OTEX 12M Forecast OTEX Earnings & Move OTEX Dividends & DRIP OTEX Insiders & 13F OTEX Whale Options OTEX Profit Sankey OTEX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

OTEX — Open Text Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-06-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Open Text Corporation (OTEX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 59/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $26.52 (-0.26% 1D, market capitalization $6.66B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7.7%, gross margin of 72.3%, operating margin of 17.3%, and free cash flow yield of 8.82%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (7/20): Incorporates a 1.36x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.41, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.57x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Open Text Corporation (OTEX) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the EDP Services industry (Technology sector) with an equity market capitalization of $6.66B. The business operates with a gross margin of 72.3%, an operating margin of 17.3%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7.7% (free cash flow yield of 8.82%). Within the EDP Services peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-06-30), Open Text Corporation (OTEX) reported $5.17B in annual revenue (up from $5.77B in FY2024, -10.4% YoY) and $435.9M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.48B revenue, $150.4M net income) through FY2025, OTEX scaled operating cash flow to $830.6M and free cash flow to $598.0M, backed by $13.57B in total assets against $6.34B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 59/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 8.82% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $19.78 – $39.15 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh 15.6x trailing P/E and 10.9x EV/EBITDA against 17.3% operating margins and a 1.36x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

A prospective investor should note that the absence of mapped links means second-order ripple effects cannot be assessed from the provided data.

  • Key Question #1: Can OTEX sustain or expand its 17.3% operating margin and 7.7% ROIC against EDP Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $5.17B and free cash flow of $598.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $6.34B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is OTEX's 14.5x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.36x)?

OTEX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Open Text Corporation (OTEX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to OTEX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

OTEX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $26.52?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OTEX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on OTEX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $31.11 (+17.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (16/20) and a 8.82% FCF yield with a forward P/E of 14.5 support valuation despite a weak balance sheet.

The street is overcomplicating Open Text Corporation (OTEX). Insider conviction (16/20) and a 8.82% FCF yield with a forward P/E of 14.5 support valuation despite a weak balance sheet.. With an RQD score of 59/100 (C-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 7/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $28.72.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — OTEX's 7/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $22.87 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $26.59

A Forensic Balance Sheet score of 7/20, with Altman Z 1.41 and Debt/Equity 1.57, amplified by beta of 1.36, leaves the stock exposed to

I respect the product at Open Text Corporation, but the stock at $26.59 is a different story. A Forensic Balance Sheet score of 7/20, with Altman Z 1.41 and Debt/Equity 1.57, amplified by beta of 1.36, leaves the stock exposed to leverage-driven downside.. FCF yield is 8.82% and RQD sits at 59/100 (C-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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