Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$9.33 +2.08% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.39

Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (29% profit margin, 30% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- β€’ BUY Cap $63.6M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OPXS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: OPXS) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $9.33 (+2.08% 1D, market cap $63.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 20/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 19/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, OPXS ranks #77 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OPXS compare to OPTX and RELL in the Technology sector?
β–Ό

Within the Technology sector (Electronic Components), OPXS carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.5x, gross margin of 29.2%, and ROIC of 29.8%. By comparison, OPTX (Syntec Optics Holdings Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.8%, cap $253.4M) and RELL (Richardson Electronics Ltd.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 48.8x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $293.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OPXS leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while OPXS leads on capital efficiency (29.8% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OPXS?
β–Ό

Per OPXS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-28, CIK 0001397016), Optex Systems Holdings Inc. generated $41.3M in revenue (+21.6% YoY), $5.1M in net income, and $6.4M in free cash flow against $30.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (29% profit margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.39 (+0.61%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 20/20 (A+) β€’ 15.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 68.1% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY β€’ B-
025507510070
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- Β· Rk B-
Cash (20)Whales (3)SEC (18)Macro (10)CEO (19)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target
$18 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE OPXS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OPXS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±6.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY OPXS SCORES 70/100 (B-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+20/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 15.6% FCF Margin ($6.4M FCF) & 29.2% Gross Margin

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
78
Grade A-$9.92-0.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
75
Grade B+$9.85-4.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
73
Grade B$9.42-1% Next Q
Current
70
Grade B-$9.33+6.6% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: A- (78) β†’ B- (70)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OPXS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, OPXS faces multiple-compression risk if 12.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 26.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.08) or 200D SMA ($11.85) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.83) toward Bear Floor ($7.65).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OPXSβ€’ $4.8M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œOPXS Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
1.8% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 β€’ REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (13.7% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $36,108

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $650/yr
$11.4K
Yr 1
$12.9K
Yr 2
$14.7K
Yr 3
$16.7K
Yr 4
$19.0K
Yr 5
$21.6K
Yr 6
$24.6K
Yr 7
$27.9K
Yr 8
$31.8K
Yr 9
$36.1K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Cash-Flow & Quality Compounder Desk

Cash-Fortress Compounders: Auditing Free Cash Flow & Yield Safety in OPXS & A-Rated Leaders

  • βœ“12-month Bull/Base/Bear fair-value walkthrough on OPXS and its top sector peer
  • βœ“Top Roarable A-Rated cash compounders with verified executive & 13F accumulation
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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OPXS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.77%πŸ›‘οΈ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $9.23H $9.33L $9.14C $9.33VOL 8.6K
RES: $9.85SUP: $9.07SMA50: $10.08SMA200: $11.85
$14.45$12.99$11.52$10.05$8.58RES $9.85SUP $9.07$9.332026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OPXS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
3.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +21.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OPXS today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OPXS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OPXS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OPXS)

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (OPXS vs. OPTX, RELL, DCM, MSAI)

Industry: Electronic Components (21 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) ranks #77 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #548 by equity capitalization ($63.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OPXS leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while OPXS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.8% ROIC and 29.2% gross margin. OPXS currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
OPXS ACTIVE
Optex Systems Holdings Inc.
B- 70/100 12.5x 29.2% 29.8% +2.08% $63.6M Benchmark Subject
OPTX
Syntec Optics Holdings Inc. (Class A)
D- 42/100 β€” 23.3% -2.8% -16.22% $253.4M /optx-vs-opxs β†’
RELL
Richardson Electronics Ltd.
D+ 54/100 48.8x 31.2% 4.1% -1.22% $293.7M /rell-vs-opxs β†’
DCM
DeFi Capital Markets Inc.
D- 43/100 β€” 16.6% -35.0% +8.80% $9.3M /dcm-vs-opxs β†’
MSAI
MultiSensor AI Holdings Inc.
E 19/100 β€” β€” -35.0% -2.15% $7.2M /msai-vs-opxs β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-09-28 β€’ CIK 0001397016

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-28), Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) reported GAAP revenue of $41.3M (+21.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $34.0M , and +61.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $5.1M, operating cash flow of $6.9M, and free cash flow of $6.4M (+485.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, OPXS closed FY2025 with $30.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 10.17, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-28 $41.3M $5.1M $6.9M $6.4M $30.2M β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-29 $34.0M $3.8M $1.8M $1.1M $24.8M β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-10-01 $25.7M $2.3M -$296.0K -$296.0K β€” β€”

3. OPXS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OPXS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: OPXS) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $9.33 (+2.08% 1D, market cap $63.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 20/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 19/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, OPXS ranks #77 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OPXS compare to OPTX and RELL in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Electronic Components), OPXS carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.5x, gross margin of 29.2%, and ROIC of 29.8%. By comparison, OPTX (Syntec Optics Holdings Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.8%, cap $253.4M) and RELL (Richardson Electronics Ltd.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 48.8x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $293.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OPXS leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while OPXS leads on capital efficiency (29.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OPXS?

Per OPXS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-28, CIK 0001397016), Optex Systems Holdings Inc. generated $41.3M in revenue (+21.6% YoY), $5.1M in net income, and $6.4M in free cash flow against $30.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (29% profit margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OPXS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OPXS last traded at $9.33 (+2.08% on volume of 31,590 shares), positioning the stock -7.44% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.08) and -21.27% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.85). Across its 52-week range of $9.04 to $17.29, OPXS sits at the 3.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.3 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±6.1% ($8.76 to $9.90).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 70/100 (B-) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

OPXS β€” Optex Systems Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:46:03Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Roarable RQD rating is 70, graded B-, with the verdict "Roarable Buy β€” Sound Institutional Accumulation" (). The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 20/20 (ROIC 29.8%; FCF yield 10.02%); Whale 13F Flow at 3/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 19/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 10/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 18/20 (Altman Z 10.17; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). For a prospective investor, the rating's strength lies in cash generation and balance-sheet quality, while its weakest pillar is institutional flow at 3/20, which means the "accumulation" in the verdict label is not strongly reflected in the 13F pillar. The macro pillar at 10/20 signals that the stock's exposure to broader market conditions is not a clear tailwind. Upside drivers cited in the data are the high ROIC and FCF yield; valuation tradeoffs are reflected in P/E (TTM) of 12.5 and forward P/E of 10.5 against a 52-week range of $9.04 - $17.38, with the current price of 9.23 near the low end of that range. Investors should weigh that the rating is a model output, not a recommendation.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Optex Systems Holdings Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, Electronic Components industry (per the company profile). Margin data indicates a gross margin of 29.2%, operating margin of 17.3%, and net margin of 12.5% (per the market data). Specific customer and product information: β€”

Revenue rose from $25.7M in FY 2023 to $41.3M in FY 2025, and net income rose from $2.3M to $5.1M over the same span. Per the market data, ROIC is 29.8%, net margin is 12.5%, and FCF yield is 10.02%. The Altman Z-Score is 10.17, the Piotroski F-Score is 8 out of 9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Debt values are not reported in the financials, so balance-sheet leverage beyond the Debt/Equity ratio cannot be assessed from source data.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case: Cash generation is strong, with ROIC at 29.8% and FCF yield at 10.02%, alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 20/20 (ROIC 29.8%, FCF yield 10.02%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $9.04 – $17.29 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: The stock is down 24% over three months and shows a whale 13F flow pillar score of only 3 out of 20. Investors must weigh 12.5x trailing P/E and 7.7x EV/EBITDA against 17.3% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies: β€” Sector correlation data: β€” Second-order bottlenecks: β€” The main thing to watch is whether the 1.

  • Key Question #1: What is the reported total debt and the composition of the balance sheet, given that debt fields are N/A?
  • Key Question #2: What drove the reported 24% three-month decline, and is it tied to fundamentals or sentiment?
  • Key Question #3: What are the EPS figures for each reported fiscal year, since EPS is listed as N/A in the financials?

OPXS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to OPXS Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

OPXS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $9.33?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OPXS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on OPXS:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC Cross-Asset Macro Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $11.43 (+25.1%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Cash generation is strong, with ROIC at 29.8% and FCF yield at 10.02%, alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.

Don't sleep on OPXS's setup in Technology. Cash generation is strong, with ROIC at 29.8% and FCF yield at 10.02%, alongside a Piotroski F-Score of 8 out of 9.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (70/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator πŸ‚ BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 12.5x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Electronic Components. If gross margin (29.2%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.40 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $9.14

The stock is down 24% over three months and shows a whale 13F flow pillar score of only 3 out of 20.

I respect the product at Optex Systems Holdings Inc., but the stock at $9.14 is a different story. The stock is down 24% over three months and shows a whale 13F flow pillar score of only 3 out of 20.. FCF yield is 10.02% and RQD sits at 70/100 (B-) β€” why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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