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Novartis AG (NVS) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$160.79 -0.19% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $160.43

Novartis AG (NVS) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $306.81B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NVS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Novartis AG (NYSE: NVS) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $160.79 (-0.19% 1D, market cap $306.81B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, NVS ranks #98 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NVS compare to AZN and MRK in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), NVS carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, AZN (AstraZeneca PLC) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $289.44B) and MRK (Merck & Company Inc.) posts a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 19.8x, ROIC 20.7%, cap $368.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRK leads on earnings multiple (19.8x) while ABBV leads on capital efficiency (29.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NVS?
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For Novartis AG (NVS), key quantitative strengths include Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side and Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs., while primary risk factors center on Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $160.44 (-0.22%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 15.8% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510067
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B-
Cash (11)Whales (16)SEC (16)Macro (12)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4% Base Target
$197 Bull$167 Base$130 Bear
📬 FREE NVS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NVS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NVS SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±3.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.74 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 13.9% operating margin leave 9 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$146.88+4.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$153.93+1.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$156.08+3% Next Q
Current
67
Grade C+$160.79+1.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NVS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, NVS faces multiple-compression risk if 32.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($148.53) or 200D SMA ($152.07) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($167.30) toward Bear Floor ($130.49).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NVS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NVS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • Trailing 12 Months

How NVS Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$6.78B (15.8% FCF Margin)
Revenue$42.95BGross Profit $22.34B (52%)Cost of Sales $20.62BOp Profit $5.97B (13.9%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $16.37BNet Profit$4.68B (10.9%)Tax/Other $1.29B
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NVS)

  • ✓Walkthrough of NVS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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NVS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.18%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $161.1H $161.1L $160.8C $160.8VOL 3.15M
RES: $164.0SUP: $134.1SMA50: $148.5SMA200: $152.1
$166.4$158.4$150.5$142.5$134.5RES $164.0SUP $134.1$160.82026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NVS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NVS Butterfly Map → + Track NVS →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +15.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NVS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NVS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NVS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NVS)

Health Care Rank #98 of 1015 ⚔️ AZN vs NVS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (NVS vs. AZN, MRK, ABT, ABBV)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Novartis AG (NVS) ranks #98 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #7 by equity capitalization ($306.81B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MRK leads on earnings valuation at 19.8x trailing P/E, while ABBV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.0% ROIC and 70.2% gross margin. ABBV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 82/100 (A-) compared with NVS at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NVS ACTIVE
Novartis AG
C+ 67/100 32.8x — 9.9% -0.19% $306.81B Benchmark Subject
AZN
AstraZeneca PLC
C+ 67/100 32.8x — 9.9% +7.02% $289.44B /azn-vs-nvs →
MRK
Merck & Company Inc.
B+ 80/100 19.8x 74.8% 20.7% +2.18% $368.89B /mrk-vs-nvs →
ABT
Abbott Laboratories
B+ 77/100 27.7x 56.4% 11.9% +1.56% $183.77B /abt-vs-nvs →
ABBV
AbbVie Inc.
A- 82/100 121.6x 70.2% 29.0% +1.41% $521.11B /abbv-vs-nvs →

2. NVS Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Novartis AG (NVS) operates in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care) with an equity capitalization of $306.81B, trailing P/E of 32.8x, forward P/E of 27.6x, and EV/EBITDA of 21.0x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, net profit margin of 10.9%, ROIC of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of 3.74 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.

3. NVS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NVS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Novartis AG (NYSE: NVS) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $160.79 (-0.19% 1D, market cap $306.81B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, NVS ranks #98 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NVS compare to AZN and MRK in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), NVS carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, AZN (AstraZeneca PLC) holds a C+ grade (67/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $289.44B) and MRK (Merck & Company Inc.) posts a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 19.8x, ROIC 20.7%, cap $368.89B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRK leads on earnings multiple (19.8x) while ABBV leads on capital efficiency (29.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NVS?

For Novartis AG (NVS), key quantitative strengths include Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side and Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs., while primary risk factors center on Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NVS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NVS last traded at $160.79 (-0.19% on volume of 3,152,901 shares), positioning the stock +8.25% above its 50-day simple moving average ($148.53) and +5.73% above its 200-day simple moving average ($152.07). Across its 52-week range of $122.86 to $170.46, NVS sits at the 79.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 68.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.8% ($154.68 to $166.90).

Direct Sub-Reports: NVS RQD Cockpit NVS 12M Forecast NVS Earnings & Move NVS Dividends & DRIP NVS Insiders & 13F NVS Whale Options NVS Profit Sankey NVS News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NVS — Novartis AG: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Novartis AG (NVS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 67/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $160.79 (-0.19% 1D, market capitalization $306.81B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.05x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.74, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Profile data identifies Novartis AG as a NYSE-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry, with a market capitalization of $307.4B. Product lines, customers, and revenue model are not described in the source data.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 67/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $122.86 – $170.46 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 32.8x trailing P/E and 21.0x EV/EBITDA against 13.9% operating margins and a 1.05x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), NVS carries a macro regime beta of 1.05 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can NVS sustain or expand its 13.9% operating margin and 9.9% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (2.21% FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score 3.74) toward the $170.46 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NVS's 27.6x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.05x)?

NVS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Novartis AG (NVS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NVS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NVS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $160.79?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NVS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NVS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $202.60 (+26.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance-sheet strength (Altman Z 3.74, Piotroski F 8/9, Debt/Equity 0.39) is the RQD's strongest pillar at 16/20.

Long NVS at $160.79 targeting $202.60. Forensic balance-sheet strength (Altman Z 3.74, Piotroski F 8/9, Debt/Equity 0.39) is the RQD's strongest pillar at 16/20.. Institutional whale score is 16/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $123.24 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — NVS's 16/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $130.24 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $160.79

Valuation & margin reality check on NVS at $160.79 before chasing here

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on NVS: Valuation & margin reality check on NVS at $160.79 before chasing here. At 32.8x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $204.64 -4.22% AAPL $344.63 -1.23% MSFT $521.91 -1.55% TSLA $399.81 -0.86% PLTR $184.11 -6.27% SOFI $16.76 -4.83% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%