What is NLY's 12-month stock price target?

Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $17.74 (-4.1% from $18.49), with a bull-case target of $25.75 and a bear-case floor of $13.84.

Stock Ratings / Financials / NLY / forecast

OHI (66) WY (48) WPC (60) REG (64) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is NLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates NLY D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 49/100.

$18.49 +1.43% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.50

Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $14.36B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NLY Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NYSE: NLY) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $18.49 (+1.43% 1D, market cap $14.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NLY ranks #665 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NLY compare to OHI and WY in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), NLY carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 4.0%. By comparison, OHI (Omega Healthcare Investors Inc.) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.0%, cap $14.24B) and WY (Weyerhaeuser Company) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 43.9x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $14.67B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NLY leads on earnings multiple (7.1x) while REG leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NLY?

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Per NLY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001043219), Annaly Capital Management Inc. generated $6.78B in revenue (+102.8% YoY), $2.05B in net income, and $692.9M in free cash flow against $135.61B in total assets and $53.75B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.50 (+0.07%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 10.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NLY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NLY SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (35% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 15 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$18.16-0.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$18.01+1.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$18.29+1.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D$18.49-5.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (41) → D (49)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NLY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NLY currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NLY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NLY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your NLY Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $18.49: 540.8 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $13.84

$7,485

$-2,515 (-25.1%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $17.74

$9,594

$-406 (-4.1%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $25.75

$13,926

+$3,926 (+39.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$18	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$24	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$16	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NLY)

✓Walkthrough of NLY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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NLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -17.27%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $18.47H $18.49L $18.23C $18.49VOL 13.05M

RES: $25.04SUP: $17.09SMA50: $20.01SMA200: $21.86

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NLY Butterfly Map → + Track NLY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

-7.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +4.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NLY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NLY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NLY)

Financials Rank #665 of 1096 ⚔️ OHI vs NLY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NLY vs. OHI, WY, WPC, REG)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) ranks #665 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #145 by equity capitalization ($14.36B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NLY leads on earnings valuation at 7.1x trailing P/E, while REG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and — gross margin. OHI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with NLY at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NLY ACTIVE Annaly Capital Management Inc.	D	49/100	7.1x	—	4.0%	+1.43%	$14.36B	Benchmark Subject
OHI Omega Healthcare Investors Inc.	C+	66/100	—	—	0.0%	+0.04%	$14.24B	/ohi-vs-nly →
WY Weyerhaeuser Company	D	48/100	43.9x	—	4.1%	+4.62%	$14.67B	/wy-vs-nly →
WPC W. P. Carey Inc.	C-	60/100	32.0x	—	3.7%	+1.01%	$14.75B	/wpc-vs-nly →
REG Regency Centers Corporation	C	64/100	26.0x	—	11.4%	+1.33%	$13.66B	/reg-vs-nly →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001043219

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) reported GAAP revenue of $6.78B (+102.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.34B , and +25.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.05B, operating cash flow of $692.9M, and free cash flow of $692.9M (-79.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, NLY closed FY2025 with $135.61B in total assets against $53.75B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$6.78B	$2.05B	$692.9M	$692.9M	$135.61B	$53.75B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.34B	$1.01B	$3.31B	$3.31B	$103.56B	$40.89B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$5.41B	-$1.64B	$2.37B	$2.37B	$8.00B	$1.87B

3. NLY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NLY compare to OHI and WY in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NLY?

Where is NLY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NLY last traded at $18.49 (+1.43% on volume of 13,417,747 shares), positioning the stock -7.60% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.01) and -15.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($21.86). Across its 52-week range of $17.70 to $24.52, NLY sits at the 11.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($17.62 to $19.36).

Direct Sub-Reports: NLY RQD Cockpit NLY 12M Forecast NLY Earnings & Move NLY Dividends & DRIP NLY Insiders & 13F NLY Whale Options NLY Profit Sankey NLY News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 49/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NLY — Annaly Capital Management Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 49/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $18.49 (+1.43% 1D, market capitalization $14.36B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 4.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 61.4%, and free cash flow yield of 3.50%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (17/20): Incorporates a 1.15x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. (NLY) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, operating in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry, with a market capitalization of $14.6B. Per the market data, the operating margin is 61.4% and net margin is 50.4%, while the gross margin is reported as 0%. Revenue is reported as — in each financial period in the source data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) reported $6.78B in annual revenue (up from $3.34B in FY2024, +102.8% YoY) and $2.05B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($5.41B revenue, -$1.64B net income) through FY2025, NLY scaled operating cash flow to $692.9M and free cash flow to $692.9M, backed by $135.61B in total assets against $53.75B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 49/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $17.70 – $24.52 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 7.1x trailing P/E and 18.2x EV/EBITDA against 61.4% operating margins and a 1.15x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), NLY carries a macro regime beta of 1.15 and gross margin of —.

Key Question #1: Can NLY sustain or expand its 61.4% operating margin and 4.0% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $6.78B and free cash flow of $692.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $53.75B in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is NLY's 6.6x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.15x)?

NLY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NLY Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

Annaly Capital (NLY) Borrows $7 for Every $1 of Equity. What Does That Buy?

Yahoo Finance report covering Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Annaly Capital: Great Dividend, But Wait For A Discount Valuation (NYSE:NLY)

Seeking Alpha report covering Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 1d ago

Annaly Capital Management stock hits 52-week low at 17.81 USD

Investing.com report covering Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Annaly’s Series I Preferred Redemption Could Be A Game Changer For Annaly Capital Management (NLY)

Yahoo Finance report covering Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Annaly Capital Management (NYSE:NLY) Hits New 52-Week Low - Time to Sell?

MarketBeat report covering Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

9.31% Dividend Yield Flirts With A Buy From Annaly Capital Preferred Share (NYSE:NLY.PR.F)

Seeking Alpha report covering Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Surpasses Q3 Earnings Estimates

Yahoo Finance report covering Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH MarketBeat • 1d ago

Annaly Capital Management (NYSE:NLY) Stock Price Target Cut by Piper Sandler

MarketBeat report covering Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NLY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NLY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $18.49?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NLY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $23.15 (+27.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores 17 of 20 in the Roarable RQD rating, the strongest pillar, alongside a 11.5% dividend yield and a P/E (TTM) o

Insider conviction scores 17 of 20 in the Roarable RQD rating, the strongest pillar, alongside a 11.5% dividend yield and a P/E (TTM) of 7.1.. When you look under the hood at NLY, Fundamental Cash Engine is 5/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 4.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (6/20) has been quietly accumulating below $24.52. My 12M target is $23.15.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Shorting a 6/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $18.23 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $13.67 (-25.0%)

Spot @ $18.23

The RQD rating scores the cash engine at 5 of 20 on a 4% ROIC and 3.5% FCF yield, while reported free cash flow fell from $3.31B in F

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on NLY: The RQD rating scores the cash engine at 5 of 20 on a 4% ROIC and 3.5% FCF yield, while reported free cash flow fell from $3.31B in FY 2024 to $692.9M in FY 2025.. At 7.1x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Real Estate Investment Trusts triggers a 12-15% air pocket.