National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$40.18 -1.88% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.97

National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $256.0M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NKSH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, National Bankshares Inc. (NASDAQ: NKSH) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $40.18 (-1.88% 1D, market cap $256.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NKSH ranks #345 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NKSH compare to OVBC and EFSI in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), NKSH carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.6%. By comparison, OVBC (Ohio Valley Banc Corp.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 17.3x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $264.8M) and EFSI (Eagle Financial Services Inc) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 30.3x, ROIC 4.3%, cap $246.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PEBK leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while PEBK leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NKSH?
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Per NKSH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000796534), National Bankshares Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $15.8M in net income, and $17.9M in free cash flow against $1.82B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.97 (-0.53%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510062
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C+
Cash (12)Whales (7)SEC (13)Macro (14)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
$48 Bull$41 Base$32 Bear
📬 FREE NKSH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NKSH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NKSH SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 67% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 38.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
70
Grade B$43.20+1.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
67
Grade B-$44.01-7.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$40.77-1.4% Next Q
Current
62
Grade C$40.18+0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (70) → C (62)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NKSH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, NKSH faces multiple-compression risk if 16.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($42.19) or 200D SMA ($38.43) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($40.90) toward Bear Floor ($31.90).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NKSH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NKSH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
38.930 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
5 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE67% OF RANGE
L: $28$40.18H: $46
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: C-RQD 12 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 23 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WATCH
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

No major SEC filing blowups, though current interest rates and Fed liquidity call for normal position sizing.

Factor Grade: C+RQD 27 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on NKSH

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (60)

8.6% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 6.86% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (62)

23/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 14/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like NKSH
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (NKSH Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
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NKSH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.95%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $40.95H $40.95L $40.18C $40.18VOL 35.9K
RES: $46.39SUP: $39.53SMA50: $42.19SMA200: $38.43
$46.92$43.08$39.24$35.40$31.56RES $46.39SUP $39.53$40.182026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NKSH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
9.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NKSH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NKSH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NKSH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NKSH)

Financials Rank #345 of 1096 ⚔️ OVBC vs NKSH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NKSH vs. OVBC, EFSI, RMBI, PEBK)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) ranks #345 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #842 by equity capitalization ($256.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PEBK leads on earnings valuation at 12.3x trailing P/E, while PEBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. OVBC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with NKSH at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NKSH ACTIVE
National Bankshares Inc.
C 62/100 16.5x — 8.6% -1.88% $256.0M Benchmark Subject
OVBC
Ohio Valley Banc Corp.
C+ 68/100 17.3x — 9.2% -1.21% $264.8M /ovbc-vs-nksh →
EFSI
Eagle Financial Services Inc
C 63/100 30.3x — 4.3% -0.98% $246.8M /efsi-vs-nksh →
RMBI
Richmond Mutual Bancorporation Inc.
C 65/100 23.0x — 7.9% 0.00% $265.8M /rmbi-vs-nksh →
PEBK
Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina Inc.
C+ 67/100 12.3x — 12.6% -1.27% $240.5M /pebk-vs-nksh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000796534

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $15.8M, operating cash flow of $17.9M, and free cash flow of $17.9M (+89.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, NKSH closed FY2025 with $1.82B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 $15.8M $17.9M $17.9M $1.82B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $7.6M $9.4M $9.4M $1.81B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 $15.7M $15.5M $15.5M — —

3. NKSH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NKSH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, National Bankshares Inc. (NASDAQ: NKSH) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $40.18 (-1.88% 1D, market cap $256.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NKSH ranks #345 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NKSH compare to OVBC and EFSI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), NKSH carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 16.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.6%. By comparison, OVBC (Ohio Valley Banc Corp.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 17.3x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $264.8M) and EFSI (Eagle Financial Services Inc) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 30.3x, ROIC 4.3%, cap $246.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PEBK leads on earnings multiple (12.3x) while PEBK leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NKSH?

Per NKSH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000796534), National Bankshares Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $15.8M in net income, and $17.9M in free cash flow against $1.82B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NKSH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NKSH last traded at $40.18 (-1.88% on volume of 35,904 shares), positioning the stock -4.76% below its 50-day simple moving average ($42.19) and +4.55% above its 200-day simple moving average ($38.43). Across its 52-week range of $28.35 to $45.99, NKSH sits at the 67.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.2% ($37.69 to $42.67).

NKSH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell NKSH stock right now?

National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (9% return on capital), mixed timing at 17x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is NKSH's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

NKSH's 12-month base price target is $40.9 (range $31.9 to $48.29), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 62/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

NKSH — National Bankshares Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:39:45Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, NKSH carries an RQD Score of 63 out of 100, a letter grade of C, and the verdict "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." Across the five pillars, the Fundamental Cash Engine scores 12 of 20, citing ROIC of 8.6% and FCF yield of 6.86%; this is the pillar that anchors the cash-generation case, though a below-midpoint score signals that returns on capital are not yet strong enough to drive a premium valuation. The Whale 13F Flow pillar scores 8 of 20 for institutional accumulation and options positioning, the weakest pillar, implying limited evidence of large-holder conviction. The Insider Conviction pillar scores 16 of 20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, the strongest pillar, which is a supportive signal of insider confidence. The Macro Regime Fit pillar scores 14 of 20 with a Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity noted, suggesting market-level risk roughly in line with the broad market. The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 13 of 20, citing an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 5 of 9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the upside drivers are the cash-generation profile, the insider-flow signal, and a forward P/E of 15.3 relative to a trailing P/E of 16.5, which implies expected earnings growth per the market data. The valuation tradeoff is that the stock trades near the upper end of its 52-week range, with the price of 40.95 against a high of 45.99, while institutional whale flow is weak. The overall profile reads as balanced rather than compelling: the business generates cash and insiders appear constructive, but institutional conviction is thin and recent earnings coverage is mixed. This is an educational reading of the scores, not personalized financial advice.

Business

National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, classified under the Major Banks industry per the SEC profile. Per the profile, the company is a banking-oriented financial institution with a market capitalization of $0.3B. The source data does not describe specific products, customer segments, or revenue mix, so the detailed mechanics of how the company earns income are not available in source data.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$0.0M$15.8MN/A$17.9M$59.2MN/A
FY 2024$0.0M$0.0M$7.6MN/A$9.4M$108.1MN/A
FY 2023$0.0M$0.0M$15.7MN/A$15.5MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, net income was $15.8M in FY 2025, $7.6M in FY 2024, and $15.7M in FY 2023, with FCF of $17.9M, $9.4M, and $15.5M respectively. Revenue, operating income, and EPS are reported as zero or N/A in the source, so margin analysis is not available in source data; the reported gross, operating, and net margins all read 0%. Per the market data, ROIC is 8.6%, and the Roarable RQD rating cites an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 5 of 9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. Cash declined from $108.1M in FY 2024 to $59.2M in FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the most recent items are headlines about Q3 earnings for NKSH. Two items carry a RED "RISK WATCH" flag: a Yahoo Finance headline reporting the stock fell after a strong Q3 earnings report, and a Simply Wall St headline reporting a stock drop on Q3 earnings funding questions. Three items carry YELLOW "MARKET WIRE" flags from Yahoo Finance, TradingView, and GuruFocus, covering market action and institutional positioning. One item carries a GREEN "CATALYST" flag from 24/7 Wall St., describing a margin increase that offset an EPS miss. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore not available in source data. The only sector context provided is the Financials / Major Banks classification.

Open Questions

  • What is the reconciliation between the strong Q3 earnings headlines and the reported price decline, and what drove the EPS miss cited in the news feed?
  • What are the revenue, operating income, and EPS figures for each reported fiscal year, since the source shows zero or N/A values?
  • What explains the drop in cash from $108.1M in FY 2024 to $59.2M in FY 2025 alongside the rise in net income?
  • What is the company's debt position, given that debt is reported as N/A across all periods?
  • Who holds the stock institutionally and what is the analyst consensus, given both data sections are empty?

NKSH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for National Bankshares Inc. (NKSH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to NKSH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NKSH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $40.18?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NKSH 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NKSH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $44.23 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is NKSH (C • RQD 63/100) a Buy at $40.95?

Welcome to the NKSH (National Bankshares Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 63/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Major Banks. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $31.12 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $40.95

Pump the brakes on NKSH — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NKSH, but look at what you are paying: 16.5x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless National Bankshares Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $52.01 (+27.0%)
Spot @ $40.95

NKSH cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NKSH, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Banks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $40.95 (52-wk range $27.70 - $45.99), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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