Stock Ratings / Health Care / MTVA / options

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MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$1.12 -5.88% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.11

MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 31/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $7.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MTVA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MTVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, MetaVia Inc. (NASDAQ: MTVA) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 31/100 at a spot price of $1.12 (-5.88% 1D, market cap $7.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MTVA ranks #780 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MTVA compare to LEXX and CNSP in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), MTVA carries a Roarable E (31/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, LEXX (Lexaria Bioscience Corp.) holds a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $7.4M) and CNSP (CNS Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $7.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTVA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MTVA leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTVA?

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Per MTVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001638287), MetaVia Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$13.0M in net income, and -$15.7M in free cash flow against $11.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.11 (-1.25%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (31/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-12.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTVA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (31/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MTVA SCORES 31/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 35 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$1.43-9.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$1.29-10.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$1.15-2.6% Next Q

Current

Grade E$1.12-9.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (39) → E (31)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MTVA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MTVA currently carries a cautious 31/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.51) and Max Pain ($1.18) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.59.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MTVA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MTVA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 31%NO 69%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±12.5%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MTVA)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MTVA.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MTVA)

✓Walkthrough of MTVA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MTVA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.81%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $1.19H $1.19L $1.12C $1.12VOL 74.1K

RES: $1.18SUP: $1.09SMA50: $1.51SMA200: $1.66

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MTVA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MTVA Butterfly Map → + Track MTVA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTVA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTVA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTVA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTVA)

Health Care Rank #780 of 1016 ⚔️ LEXX vs MTVA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (MTVA vs. LEXX, CNSP, UPC, IMRN)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) ranks #780 by composite RQD confidence (31/100, grade E) and #915 by equity capitalization ($7.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTVA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while MTVA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. IMRN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 47/100 (D) compared with MTVA at 31/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MTVA ACTIVE MetaVia Inc.	E	31/100	—	—	-35.0%	-5.88%	$7.4M	Benchmark Subject
LEXX Lexaria Bioscience Corp.	E	34/100	—	96.0%	-35.0%	-7.43%	$7.4M	/lexx-vs-mtva →
CNSP CNS Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D-	43/100	—	—	-35.0%	+4.82%	$7.3M	/cnsp-vs-mtva →
UPC Universe Pharmaceuticals Inc. (Class A)	E	33/100	—	35.3%	—	-3.25%	$7.5M	/upc-vs-mtva →
IMRN Immuron Limited	D	47/100	—	—	—	-4.60%	$7.1M	/imrn-vs-mtva →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001638287

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$13.0M, operating cash flow of -$15.7M, and free cash flow of -$15.7M (+36.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, MTVA closed FY2025 with $11.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$13.0M	-$15.7M	-$15.7M	$11.1M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$27.6M	-$24.7M	-$24.7M	$16.3M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$12.5M	-$10.8M	-$10.8M	—	—

3. MTVA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MTVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MTVA compare to LEXX and CNSP in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTVA?

Where is MTVA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MTVA last traded at $1.12 (-5.88% on volume of 74,063 shares), positioning the stock -25.83% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.51) and -32.53% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.66). Across its 52-week range of $0.97 to $14.85, MTVA sits at the 1.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.26).

MTVA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MTVA's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for MTVA.

Direct Sub-Reports: MTVA RQD Cockpit MTVA 12M Forecast MTVA Earnings & Move MTVA Dividends & DRIP MTVA Insiders & 13F MTVA Whale Options MTVA Profit Sankey MTVA News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 31/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MTVA — MetaVia Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:52:24Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) carries an RQD Score of 31 out of 100, a letter grade of E, and the verdict label "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The score is built from five pillars, each weighted out of 20:

Fundamental Cash Engine (4 / 20): The weakest pillar, reflecting a ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of 0%. For a prospective investor, this means the business is not currently generating returns on invested capital or free cash flow to support its valuation from operations.
Whale 13F Flow (3 / 20): Institutional accumulation and options positioning score is the lowest of the five, signaling limited smart-money support in the sources provided.
Insider Conviction (5 / 20): SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow scores low, indicating insider and disclosed trading activity does not provide a strong conviction signal.
Macro Regime Fit (9 / 20): Beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity produce a moderate-low score; the stock's market sensitivity is neutral, but the score does not offset weak fundamentals.
Forensic Balance Sheet (10 / 20): Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5 produce the strongest pillar, though a Piotroski F of 2 out of 9 is weak.

Investor implications: upside drivers in this profile are limited to the balance sheet pillar and any binary clinical or catalyst outcomes not captured in the source data. The valuation tradeoff is stark: with a market capitalization of $7.8M and no reported revenue, valuation cannot be anchored to earnings or cash flow, leaving the price highly sensitive to sentiment and news. The 52-week range of $0.97 to $14.85 illustrates extreme volatility relative to a current price of $1.19. Per the Roarable RQD rating's verdict label, the rating advises avoidance on forensic-risk grounds, which an educational reader should weigh alongside the underlying metrics rather than treat as a standalone conclusion.

Business

MetaVia Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. Per the profile, the company is classified in this sector and industry. Source data does not describe its specific products, customers, or revenue model. Reported revenue for FY 2025 is $0.0M. Not available in source data for further details on how the company generates income.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$0.0M	$-13.7M	$-13.0M	N/A	$-15.7M	$10.3M	N/A
FY 2024	$0.0M	$-28.8M	$-27.6M	N/A	$-24.7M	$16.0M	N/A
FY 2023	$0.0M	$-15.9M	$-12.5M	N/A	$-10.8M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, the company reported zero revenue and operating losses across all three periods, with net losses of $-13.0M in FY 2025 and $-27.6M in FY 2024. Gross, operating, and net margins are each reported at 0%, and ROIC is -35%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 2 out of 9, with Debt/Equity at 0.5. Cash declined from $16.0M in FY 2024 to $10.3M in FY 2025; FY 2023 cash and all debt figures are not available in source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts feed:

Clinical catalyst: A report indicates MetaVia will present Phase 1 clinical trial data for DA-1726 in an oral presentation at the Precision Liver Symposium 2026 (Stock Titan).
Management change: A PR Newswire item reports the appointment of Sarah Browne, M.D., as Chief Medical Officer, flagged as RISK WATCH.
Market wire items: Stocktwits, TradingView, Yahoo! Finance Canada, and Investing.com Nigeria items are generic market coverage flagged YELLOW, with no additional substantive detail in the source data.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the sector is Health Care and the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no upstream or downstream dependencies, butterfly links, or proprietary signals are mapped for MTVA. Sector and industry classification is Health Care / Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Investors should watch for second-order effects tied to the DA-1726 clinical program and the newly appointed Chief Medical Officer, since clinical data outcomes could ripple into financing needs given cash declined to $10.3M in FY 2025 against FCF of $-15.7M. Sector correlation data is not available in source data.

Open Questions

What is the company's pipeline, and what regulatory milestones beyond the DA-1726 Phase 1 presentation are expected?
What is the current cash runway given FY 2025 cash of $10.3M and FCF of $-15.7M, and will additional financing be required?
What were the FY 2023 cash and debt balances, which are not reported in the source data?
Who are the institutional and insider holders, and what is their recent trading activity?
What drove the 52-week decline from $14.85 to $0.97, and how does that relate to the forensic balance sheet metrics?

MTVA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MTVA Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stocktwits • 15h ago

MTVA: MetaVia Inc. Latest Stock Price, Analysis, News and Trading Ideas

Stocktwits report covering MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 18h ago

MetaVia Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:MTVA

TradingView report covering MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 21h ago

MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) Seasonal Returns Chart

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

MetaVia to Present Phase 1 Clinical Trial Data for DA-1726 in Oral Presentation at the Precision Liver Symposium 2026

Stock Titan report covering MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH PR Newswire • 1d ago

MetaVia Appoints Seasoned Clinical Development Executive Sarah Browne, M.D., as Chief Medical Officer

PR Newswire report covering MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com Nigeria • 1d ago

MetaVia to present phase 1 trial data at liver symposium By Investing.com

Investing.com Nigeria report covering MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE kalkine.ca • 1d ago

Is Cash the Real Story Behind Penny Stocks MetaVia (NASDAQ:MTVA) and Biomea Fusion (NASDAQ:BMEA)?

kalkine.ca report covering MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 1d ago

12 Health Care Stocks Moving In Monday's After-Market Session

Benzinga report covering MetaVia Inc. (MTVA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MTVA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.12?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MTVA 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.05 (-11.8%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MTVA (E • RQD 31/100) a Buy at $1.19?

Welcome to the MTVA (MetaVia Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 31/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.93 (-21.8%)

Spot @ $1.19

Pump the brakes on MTVA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MTVA, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless MetaVia Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.49 (+25.2%)

Spot @ $1.19

MTVA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MTVA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $1.19 (52-wk range $0.97 - $14.85), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.