Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MTN / dividends

SGHC (46) CHDN (56) SPHR (41) MSGK (67) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$151.83 -1.75% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $151.06

Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 58/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $5.41B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MTN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MTN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE: MTN) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 58/100 at a spot price of $151.83 (-1.75% 1D, market cap $5.41B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MTN ranks #366 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MTN compare to SGHC and CHDN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), MTN carries a Roarable D+ (58/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 22.1%. By comparison, SGHC (Super Group (SGHC) Limited) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $5.43B) and CHDN (Churchill Downs Incorporated) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 16.3x, ROIC 9.2%, cap $6.50B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CHDN leads on earnings multiple (16.3x) while MTN leads on capital efficiency (22.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTN?

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Per MTN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-07-31, CIK 0000812011), Vail Resorts Inc. generated $2.96B in revenue (+2.7% YoY), $298.0M in net income, and $421.5M in free cash flow against $5.60B in total assets and $2.23B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $151.06 (-0.51%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 14.2% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 58/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (58/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MTN SCORES 58/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 15 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$149.45-1.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$147.01+3.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$151.95-0.1% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$151.83+0% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (50) → D+ (58)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MTN Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 58/100 (D+) score, MTN faces multiple-compression risk if 18.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($143.47) or 200D SMA ($138.38) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($151.83) toward Bear Floor ($118.43).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MTN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MTN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 28, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 58%NO 42%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

7.76% Total Yield

5.96% Cash ($9.05/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

88/100 • FORTRESS PAYOUT

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

50.6% of FCF

8 consecutive years of payout growth

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (11.3% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $29,171

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $2,264/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$11.1K

Yr 1

$12.4K

Yr 2

$13.8K

Yr 3

$15.3K

Yr 4

$17.1K

Yr 5

$19.0K

Yr 6

$21.2K

Yr 7

$23.5K

Yr 8

$26.2K

Yr 9

$29.2K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MTN)

✓Walkthrough of MTN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MTN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.14%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-11-03O $154.5H $154.5L $151.8C $151.8VOL 433.1K

RES: $156.8SUP: $133.3SMA50: $143.5SMA200: $138.4

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MTN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MTN Butterfly Map → + Track MTN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

11.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +2.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTN)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #366 of 1011 ⚔️ SGHC vs MTN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MTN vs. SGHC, CHDN, SPHR, MSGK)

Industry: Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation (51 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) ranks #366 by composite RQD confidence (58/100, grade D+) and #254 by equity capitalization ($5.41B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CHDN leads on earnings valuation at 16.3x trailing P/E, while MTN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.1% ROIC and — gross margin. MSGK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with MTN at 58/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MTN ACTIVE Vail Resorts Inc.	D+	58/100	18.5x	—	22.1%	-1.75%	$5.41B	Benchmark Subject
SGHC Super Group (SGHC) Limited	D	46/100	—	—	—	-0.28%	$5.43B	/sghc-vs-mtn →
CHDN Churchill Downs Incorporated	D+	56/100	16.3x	—	9.2%	+4.03%	$6.50B	/chdn-vs-mtn →
SPHR Sphere Entertainment Co.	D-	41/100	121.6x	—	-7.3%	-3.50%	$3.92B	/sphr-vs-mtn →
MSGK MSG Knickerbockers Corp.	C+	67/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+0.88%	$7.55B	/msgk-vs-mtn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-07-31 • CIK 0000812011

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-07-31), Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) reported GAAP revenue of $2.96B (+2.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.89B , and +2.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $298.0M, operating cash flow of $554.9M, and free cash flow of $421.5M (-8.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, MTN closed FY2025 with $5.60B in total assets against $2.23B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.56, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-07-31	$2.96B	$298.0M	$554.9M	$421.5M	$5.60B	$2.23B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-07-31	$2.89B	$246.3M	$589.0M	$459.2M	$5.52B	$2.12B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-07-31	$2.89B	$285.1M	$637.9M	$507.8M	$3.47B	$811.3M

3. MTN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MTN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MTN compare to SGHC and CHDN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTN?

Where is MTN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MTN last traded at $151.83 (-1.75% on volume of 433,086 shares), positioning the stock +5.83% above its 50-day simple moving average ($143.47) and +9.72% above its 200-day simple moving average ($138.38). Across its 52-week range of $118.51 to $163.34, MTN sits at the 74.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.6 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.8% ($143.02 to $160.64).

MTN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does MTN pay a dividend and is it safe?

Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) offers a 5.96% cash dividend yield ($9.05 annualized) and 7.76% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as FORTRESS PAYOUT.

Direct Sub-Reports: MTN RQD Cockpit MTN 12M Forecast MTN Earnings & Move MTN Dividends & DRIP MTN Insiders & 13F MTN Whale Options MTN Profit Sankey MTN News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 58/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MTN — Vail Resorts Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:20:11Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MTN scores 59 out of 100, a letter grade of C-, with a verdict label of "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 12 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 22.1% and an FCF yield of 7.65%. Strong returns on capital are offset by a score that remains in the lower half of the pillar's range.
Whale 13F Flow: 16 / 20. The RQD rating cites institutional accumulation and options positioning as a relative strength.
Insider Conviction: 16 / 20. The RQD rating cites SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow as a relative strength.
Macro Regime Fit: 10 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this reflects a beta of 1.07 and sector sensitivity, indicating the stock tends to move somewhat more than the market.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 5 / 20. This is the weakest pillar. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 1.56, the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, and Debt/Equity is 6.9.

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the implication is a mixed profile. The highest-weighted cash-generation and capital-return metrics are supportive, and the flow-based pillars (institutional and insider activity) are the strongest signals in the rating. The balance-sheet pillar is the principal constraint: a low Altman Z-Score and high Debt/Equity mean the company's leverage is a material risk factor relative to its earnings base, and that risk is more relevant in a tighter credit or weaker macro environment. Macro fit is moderate, with beta above 1 implying amplified exposure to market swings. The "Hold — Cautious Neutral" verdict reflects these offsetting factors rather than a directional call.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
154.53	$5.51B	18.5	17.2	10.7	8.36	5.96%	1.07	$118.51 - $163.34	22.1%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news data, the headlines are dominated by activist-investor activity. Reports reference Oasis Management increasing its stake to 9% amid an intensifying proxy fight, and a report describing an activist reportedly eyeing a proxy fight to force a sale of the company. A Reuters report describes the company's largest investor backing management against Oasis. Investing.com reports Stifel raising its price target on turnaround confidence (tagged as a green catalyst). A VailDaily.com analysis raises operational questions about management changes. A Yahoo Finance item notes the stock trading up. Per the Butterfly graph, there are no proprietary signals or supply-chain links. The principal watch item is the outcome of the proxy contest, which the source data does not resolve.

Open Questions

What is the outcome and timeline of the proxy contest involving Oasis Management and the company's management?
What is the EPS (reported) for each fiscal period, given EPS is listed as N/A in the financials?
How will the rising debt load (from $811.3M in FY 2023 to $2229.8M in FY 2025) be serviced, and what are the maturity and interest-rate terms?
What is the company's revenue mix and segment breakdown?
What are the specific analyst price targets and consensus rating?

MTN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MTN Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 17h ago

Vail Resorts (MTN) Stock Trades Up, Here Is Why

Yahoo Finance report covering Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE SnowBrains • 20h ago

Oasis Management Increases Stake in Vail Resorts to 9% as Proxy Fight Intensifies

SnowBrains report covering Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stocktwits • 23h ago

MTN Stock Sees Best Day In Six Years — Activist Investor Reportedly Eyes Proxy Fight To Force Vail Resorts Sale

Stocktwits report covering Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Reuters • 1d ago

Vail Resorts' biggest investor backs company in fight with activist Oasis

Reuters report covering Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 1d ago

Stifel raises Vail Resorts stock price target on turnaround confidence

Investing.com report covering Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE VailDaily.com • 1d ago

Analysis | Taylor: If you were running Vail Resorts, what changes would you make?

VailDaily.com report covering Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE 24/7 Wall St. • 1d ago

Vail Resorts vs Host Hotels: Which Leisure Dividend Can Weather the Next Soft Patch?

24/7 Wall St. report covering Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Vail Resorts (MTN) Could Be 1% Undervalued After Its Winter Music Expansion

Yahoo Finance report covering Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MTN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $151.83?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MTN 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $166.89 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MTN (C- • RQD 59/100) a Buy at $154.53?

Welcome to the MTN (Vail Resorts Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 59/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation. Bulls point to capital efficiency (22.1% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $126.71 (-18.0%)

Spot @ $154.53

Pump the brakes on MTN — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MTN, but look at what you are paying: 18.5x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Vail Resorts Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $179.25 (+16.0%)

Spot @ $154.53

MTN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MTN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $154.53 (52-wk range $118.51 - $163.34), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.