Morgan Stanley (MS) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$184.30 -3.00% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $182.95

Morgan Stanley (MS) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ RED ALERT Cap $298.41B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MS Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $184.30 (-3.00% 1D, market cap $298.41B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MS ranks #926 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MS compare to BLK and SCHW in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), MS carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.7x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 3.0%. By comparison, BLK (BlackRock Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 6.2%, cap $182.16B) and SCHW (Charles Schwab Corporation) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.0%, cap $154.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MS leads on earnings multiple (17.7x) while ICE leads on capital efficiency (8.3% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MS?
β–Ό

Per MS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000895421), Morgan Stanley generated $0 in revenue, $16.86B in net income, and -$17.89B in free cash flow against $1.42T in total assets and $588.43B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $182.95 (-0.73%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ D-
025507510040
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- Β· Rk D-
Cash (4)Whales (11)SEC (13)Macro (4)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target
$244 Bull$169 Base$132 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE MS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY MS SCORES 40/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (33% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 5/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (28% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±5% realized swing band)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (51) create a -16 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
48
Grade D$186.64-3.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
45
Grade D$180.40+3.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
43
Grade D$186.91-1.4% Next Q
Current
40
Grade D-$184.30-7.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (48) β†’ D- (40)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MS Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While MS currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($197.10) and Max Pain ($193.52) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $243.86.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MSβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œMS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
2.81% Total Yield
2.21% Cash ($4.07/yr) + 0.6% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
41/100 β€’ ELEVATED PAYOUT WATCH
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
96% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (6.3% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $18,422

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $518/yr
$10.6K
Yr 1
$11.3K
Yr 2
$12.0K
Yr 3
$12.8K
Yr 4
$13.6K
Yr 5
$14.4K
Yr 6
$15.3K
Yr 7
$16.3K
Yr 8
$17.3K
Yr 9
$18.4K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MS)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of MS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
MS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.97%β–Ό DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $190.1H $190.1L $184.3C $184.3VOL 5.55M
RES: $204.0SUP: $169.4SMA50: $197.1SMA200: $194.3
$236.9$217.7$198.5$179.2$160.0RES $204.0SUP $169.4$184.32026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
10.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MS today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MS)

Financials Rank #926 of 1096 βš”οΈ BLK vs MS Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MS vs. BLK, SCHW, CME, ICE)

Industry: Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service (64 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Morgan Stanley (MS) ranks #926 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #5 by equity capitalization ($298.41B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MS leads on earnings valuation at 17.7x trailing P/E, while ICE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.3% ROIC and β€” gross margin. ICE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with MS at 40/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MS ACTIVE
Morgan Stanley
D- 40/100 17.7x β€” 3.0% -3.00% $298.41B Benchmark Subject
BLK
BlackRock Inc.
C 65/100 32.8x β€” 6.2% -2.44% $182.16B /blk-vs-ms β†’
SCHW
Charles Schwab Corporation
D+ 54/100 β€” β€” 0.0% -1.59% $154.72B /schw-vs-ms β†’
CME
CME Group Inc.
B 72/100 26.1x β€” 3.5% +2.27% $106.10B /cme-vs-ms β†’
ICE
Intercontinental Exchange Inc.
B 74/100 27.6x β€” 8.3% +3.56% $91.53B /ice-vs-ms β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000895421

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Morgan Stanley (MS) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $16.86B, operating cash flow of -$17.89B, and free cash flow of -$17.89B (-1413.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, MS closed FY2025 with $1.42T in total assets against $588.43B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 $16.86B -$17.89B -$17.89B $1.42T $588.43B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $13.39B $1.36B $1.36B $1.22T $499.34B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 $9.09B -$33.54B -$33.54B $164.12B $38.41B

3. MS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $184.30 (-3.00% 1D, market cap $298.41B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MS ranks #926 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MS compare to BLK and SCHW in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), MS carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.7x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 3.0%. By comparison, BLK (BlackRock Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 6.2%, cap $182.16B) and SCHW (Charles Schwab Corporation) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.0%, cap $154.72B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MS leads on earnings multiple (17.7x) while ICE leads on capital efficiency (8.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MS?

Per MS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000895421), Morgan Stanley generated $0 in revenue, $16.86B in net income, and -$17.89B in free cash flow against $1.42T in total assets and $588.43B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MS last traded at $184.30 (-3.00% on volume of 7,941,477 shares), positioning the stock -6.49% below its 50-day simple moving average ($197.10) and -5.16% below its 200-day simple moving average ($194.33). Across its 52-week range of $152.80 to $232.25, MS sits at the 39.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±5.0% ($175.09 to $193.51).

MS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

Does MS pay a dividend and is it safe?

Morgan Stanley (MS) offers a 2.21% cash dividend yield ($4.07 annualized) and 2.81% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as ELEVATED PAYOUT WATCH.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 40/100 (D-) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MS β€” Morgan Stanley: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:08:56Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MS scores 40 out of 100 with a letter grade of D-, labeled "Roarable Sell β€” Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 4 / 20 (ROIC 3%; FCF yield -7.25%). This is the weakest pillar and indicates that, per the market data section, the company's return on invested capital and free cash flow yield are both poor relative to the market price.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 11 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning). A middling score; the source does not provide the underlying 13F detail, so the composition of this signal cannot be verified here.
  • Insider Conviction: 8 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow). A below-average score; the underlying trade records are not included in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 4 / 20 (Beta 1.04; sector sensitivity). Beta of 1.04 implies the stock moves roughly in line with the market, and the low pillar score signals weak alignment with the current regime per the RQD methodology.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 13 / 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 5/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The strongest pillar, though still moderate.

For a prospective investor, the rating highlights a tension: the stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 17.7 and forward P/E of 16.5, which may look reasonable on earnings, but the cash-flow and return-on-capital measures per the RQD rating are weak. Upside drivers would need to come from improved free cash flow conversion or higher returns on invested capital; the valuation tradeoff is that earnings multiples do not reflect the negative FCF yield. Investors should weigh the earnings-based valuation against the cash-based warning signals.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
190$298.41B17.716.53110.742.21%1.04$152.8 - $232.253%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$19896.0M$16861.0MN/A$-17889.0M$111695.0M$588428.1M
FY 2024$0.0M$15800.2M$13390.0MN/A$1362.0M$105386.0M$499339.3M
FY 2023$0.0M$10722.7M$9087.0MN/A$-33536.0MN/A$38405.1M

Per the SEC financials, operating income and net income rose across the three reported periods, while free cash flow was negative in FY 2025 and FY 2023 and positive in FY 2024. Debt increased from $38405.1M (FY 2023) to $588428.1M (FY 2025). The Roarable RQD rating cites an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5 as forensic balance-sheet measures. Gross margin is reported as 0% in the market data, which is not consistent with a revenue figure of $0.0M and should be treated as unreliable. ROIC is 3% per the market data.

Open Questions

  • What drives the $0.0M revenue figure alongside reported operating and net income, and how does the company classify its top line?
  • What explains the swing from negative free cash flow in FY 2025 to positive in FY 2024, and what is the underlying cash conversion trend?
  • What is the composition and timing of the debt increase from $38405.1M (FY 2023) to $588428.1M (FY 2025)?
  • What are the underlying 13F, Form 4, and Congressional trade records behind the whale-flow and insider-conviction pillar scores?
  • Why is the reported gross margin 0% and how does it reconcile with the other margin figures?

MS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Morgan Stanley (MS) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to MS Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $184.30?

πŸ‚ 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MS 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MS:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $167.20 (-12.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MS (D- β€’ RQD 40/100) a Buy at $190.00?

Welcome to the MS (Morgan Stanley) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 40/100 (Roarable Sell β€” Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $159.60 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $190.00

Pump the brakes on MS β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MS, but look at what you are paying: 17.7x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Morgan Stanley expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $226.10 (+19.0%)
Spot @ $190.00

MS cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MS, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $190.00 (52-wk range $152.80 - $232.25), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

LIVE TAPE SPY $755.72 -0.38% QQQ $690.49 -1.44% DIA $517.13 -0.37% IWM $279.33 +0.96% NVDA $204.64 -4.22% AAPL $344.63 -1.23% MSFT $521.91 -1.55% TSLA $399.81 -0.86% PLTR $184.11 -6.27% SOFI $16.76 -4.83% IBIT $43.36 -0.94% GLD $355.78 -1.34%