Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (10% profit margin, 17% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
As of 2026-11-02, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: MPC) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $444.73 (+2.83% 1D, market cap $121.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, MPC ranks #35 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Energy sector (Integrated oil Companies), MPC carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 30.0x, gross margin of 10.0%, and ROIC of 16.9%. By comparison, EQNR (Equinor ASA) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $118.96B) and BP (BP p.l.c.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $131.81B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PSX leads on earnings multiple (24.2x) while MPC leads on capital efficiency (16.9% ROIC).
Per MPC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001510295), Marathon Petroleum Corporation generated $132.70B in revenue (-4.4% YoY), $4.05B in net income, and $4.77B in free cash flow against $83.95B in total assets and $26.94B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.9% realized swing band)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.6% FCF Margin ($4.77B FCF) & 10% Gross Margin
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (46.6) create a -8 pt regime headwind
Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, MPC faces multiple-compression risk if 30.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($420.65) or 200D SMA ($293.04) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($468.75) toward Bear Floor ($364.68).
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) surged +2.83% to $444.73, trading at 85% of its 52-week range ($161.93 – $493.98). High-quality cash engine (10% profit margin, 17% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
Yahoo Finance report covering Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Zacks highlights MPC, AMGN and CVX as standout performers, with strong returns across its stock recommendations and model portfolios despite market volatility.
Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC) has outperformed the market over the past 15 years by 10.8% on an annualized basis producing an average annual return of 23.37%. Currently, Marathon Petroleum has a market capitalization of
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. -4.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MPC today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MPC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) ranks #35 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #9 by equity capitalization ($121.46B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PSX leads on earnings valuation at 24.2x trailing P/E, while MPC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.9% ROIC and 10.0% gross margin. EQNR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with MPC at 70/100 (B-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPC
ACTIVE
Marathon Petroleum Corporation | B- | 70/100 | 30.0x | 10.0% | 16.9% | +2.83% | $121.46B | Benchmark Subject |
| EQNR Equinor ASA | B | 74/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | +2.46% | $118.96B | /eqnr-vs-mpc → |
| BP BP p.l.c. | B | 72/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | +0.08% | $131.81B | /bp-vs-mpc → |
| VLO Valero Energy Corporation | C+ | 69/100 | 45.7x | — | 8.2% | +3.92% | $107.25B | /vlo-vs-mpc → |
| PSX Phillips 66 | D+ | 56/100 | 24.2x | 12.3% | 9.2% | +3.37% | $106.73B | /psx-vs-mpc → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) reported GAAP revenue of $132.70B (-4.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $138.86B , and -10.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $4.05B, operating cash flow of $8.25B, and free cash flow of $4.77B (-22.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, MPC closed FY2025 with $83.95B in total assets against $26.94B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.86, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $132.70B | $4.05B | $8.25B | $4.77B | $83.95B | $26.94B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $138.86B | $3.44B | $8.66B | $6.13B | $78.86B | $24.46B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $148.38B | $9.68B | $14.12B | $7.44B | $178.05B | $41.66B |
As of 2026-11-02, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: MPC) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $444.73 (+2.83% 1D, market cap $121.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, MPC ranks #35 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Energy sector (Integrated oil Companies), MPC carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 30.0x, gross margin of 10.0%, and ROIC of 16.9%. By comparison, EQNR (Equinor ASA) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $118.96B) and BP (BP p.l.c.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $131.81B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PSX leads on earnings multiple (24.2x) while MPC leads on capital efficiency (16.9% ROIC).
Per MPC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001510295), Marathon Petroleum Corporation generated $132.70B in revenue (-4.4% YoY), $4.05B in net income, and $4.77B in free cash flow against $83.95B in total assets and $26.94B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
MPC last traded at $444.73 (+2.83% on volume of 2,084,619 shares), positioning the stock +5.72% above its 50-day simple moving average ($420.65) and +51.76% above its 200-day simple moving average ($293.04). Across its 52-week range of $161.93 to $493.98, MPC sits at the 85.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($409.60 to $479.86).
Why MPC Stock surged +2.83% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (10% profit margin, 17% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
Per the Roarable RQD rating, MPC scores 70 out of 100 (letter grade B-, verdict "Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation"). The five pillars are:
Investor implication: the composite score rewards institutional positioning and capital efficiency, while tempering the view with macro sensitivity and leverage. Valuation is a central tradeoff: per the market data, trailing P/E is 30 and forward P/E is 27.9, which are elevated relative to the company's trailing earnings power. The score describes source-data conditions and is not personalized financial advice.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, classified in the Integrated oil Companies industry, per the company profile. Per the market data, its gross margin is 10%, operating margin 6.2%, and net margin 3%, indicating a business where revenue scale is large relative to per-dollar profit. Not available in source data for product mix, customer base, or detailed revenue model.
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 (filed 2025-12-31) | $132699.0M | $8291.0M | $4047.0M | N/A | $4767.0M | $3672.0M | $26941.0M |
| FY 2024 (filed 2024-12-31) | $138864.0M | $6796.0M | $3445.0M | N/A | $6132.0M | $3210.0M | $24458.4M |
| FY 2023 (filed 2023-12-31) | $148379.0M | $14514.0M | $9681.0M | N/A | $7439.9M | N/A | $41664.8M |
Per the SEC financials, revenue declined from $148379.0M (FY 2023) to $132699.0M (FY 2025), while operating income fell from $14514.0M to $8291.0M over the same span, and net income moved from $9681.0M to $4047.0M. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 16.9%, Altman Z is 3.86, and Piotroski F is 6/9, with Debt/Equity of 1.45. Reported debt rose from $24458.4M (FY 2024) to $26941.0M (FY 2025), while cash rose from $3210.0M to $3672.0M.
Per the recent news feed, six Yahoo Finance and Seeking Alpha items reference MPC. Headlines describe the stock's recent decline during a market advance, its "good momentum" but "little margin of safety" characterization, its "trending" status, and a "long-term structural bull market" thesis. One item is tagged as a CATALYST (GREEN light); the remaining five are tagged as MARKET WIRE (YELLOW). One headline cites a profitability "ceiling" tied to a Middle East conflict, which is a flagged risk watch item. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Welcome to the MPC (Marathon Petroleum Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 70/100 (Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation) in Integrated oil Companies. Bulls point to capital efficiency (16.9% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MPC, but look at what you are paying: 30.0x trailing P/E with 10.0% gross margins. Unless Marathon Petroleum Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MPC, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Integrated oil Companies and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $432.51 (52-wk range $161.93 - $493.98), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.
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