Why MGX Stock dropped -3.24% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$0.76 -3.24% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.75

Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. (MGX) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 23/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $29.5M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MGX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: MGX) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 23/100 at a spot price of $0.76 (-3.24% 1D, market cap $29.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MGX ranks #953 in composite RQD confidence.

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🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MGX compare to GNTA and ALGS in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), MGX carries a Roarable E (23/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GNTA (Genenta Science S.p.A.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $29.8M) and ALGS (Aligos Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $30.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MGX leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

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🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MGX?
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Per MGX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001785279), Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. generated $25.2M in revenue (-51.8% YoY), -$87.9M in net income, and -$89.5M in free cash flow against $221.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.75 (-0.77%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (23/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510023
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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (5)Whales (3)SEC (5)Macro (7)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-15.8% Base Target
$3 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE MGX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MGX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (23/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MGX SCORES 23/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+7/20 pts (30% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 34.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+5/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
31
Grade E$0.92-9.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
28
Grade E$0.83-3.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
26
Grade E$0.80-5% Next Q
Current
23
Grade E$0.76-11.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (31) → E (23)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MGX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MGX currently carries a cautious 23/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.03) and Max Pain ($0.80) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.68.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MGX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MGX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why MGX Stock dropped -3.24% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. (MGX) dropped -3.24% to $0.76, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($0.75 – $2.55). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($0.75 – $2.55) with RSI-14 at 34.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $0.76 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live MGX Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 14d ago
12 Health Care Stocks Moving In Monday's After-Market Session

Gainers Vivos Therapeutics (NASDAQ:VVOS) stock increased by 17.9% to $0.16 during Monday's after-market session. The market value of their outstanding shares is at $2.8 million. SCWorx (NASDAQ:WORX) shares moved

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MGX)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MGX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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MGX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -46.10%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $0.83H $0.83L $0.76C $0.76VOL 77.9K
RES: $1.09SUP: $0.72SMA50: $1.03SMA200: $1.28
$1.94$1.62$1.29$0.97$0.65RES $1.09SUP $0.72$0.762026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MGX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -51.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MGX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MGX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MGX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MGX)

Health Care Rank #953 of 1016 ⚔️ GNTA vs MGX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (MGX vs. GNTA, ALGS, ESLA, EVAX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. (MGX) ranks #953 by composite RQD confidence (23/100, grade E) and #801 by equity capitalization ($29.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MGX leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while MGX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. GNTA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 50/100 (D) compared with MGX at 23/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MGX ACTIVE
Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc.
E 23/100 — — -35.0% -3.24% $29.5M Benchmark Subject
GNTA
Genenta Science S.p.A.
D 50/100 — — — +32.07% $29.8M /gnta-vs-mgx →
ALGS
Aligos Therapeutics Inc.
E 20/100 — — -35.0% -4.17% $30.0M /algs-vs-mgx →
ESLA
Estrella Immunopharma Inc.
D- 38/100 — — -35.0% -33.32% $27.8M /esla-vs-mgx →
EVAX
Evaxion A/S
D 46/100 — — — -0.34% $26.4M /evax-vs-mgx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001785279

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. (MGX) reported GAAP revenue of $25.2M (-51.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $52.3M , and -43.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$87.9M, operating cash flow of -$88.9M, and free cash flow of -$89.5M (+20.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, MGX closed FY2025 with $221.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $25.2M -$87.9M -$88.9M -$89.5M $221.1M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $52.3M -$78.1M -$109.1M -$112.2M $324.6M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $44.8M -$68.3M -$91.4M -$91.4M — —

3. MGX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MGX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: MGX) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 23/100 at a spot price of $0.76 (-3.24% 1D, market cap $29.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, MGX ranks #953 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MGX compare to GNTA and ALGS in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), MGX carries a Roarable E (23/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GNTA (Genenta Science S.p.A.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $29.8M) and ALGS (Aligos Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $30.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGX leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while MGX leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MGX?

Per MGX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001785279), Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. generated $25.2M in revenue (-51.8% YoY), -$87.9M in net income, and -$89.5M in free cash flow against $221.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MGX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MGX last traded at $0.76 (-3.24% on volume of 224,547 shares), positioning the stock -26.21% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.03) and -40.63% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.28). Across its 52-week range of $0.75 to $2.55, MGX sits at the 0.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 34.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.86).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 23/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MGX — Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:48:38Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The MGX scores 24 out of 100, a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 5 / 20. this reflects ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of 0%. For a prospective investor, the company is not currently generating returns on invested capital or free cash flow to shareholders; any upside case must rest on future operating change rather than present cash generation.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 4 / 20. this pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. The low score indicates little supportive institutional flow in the source data, which removes a potential demand tailwind.
  • Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. It is the lowest pillar, signaling weak insider-side conviction in the source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 7 / 20. beta is 1.0 with sector sensitivity considered. A beta of 1.0 means the stock moves in line with the broad market, so it offers no defensive cushion and no obvious macro-regime advantage in the source framing.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 5 / 20. the Altman Z-Score is 0.2, the Piotroski F-Score is 1/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. These forensic readings point to elevated balance-sheet stress.

The RQD framework weighs these factors heavily toward caution.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. (MGX) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). The company reported revenue of $25.2M for FY 2025, indicating it generates some revenue alongside substantial operating losses. — describes its customers or specific products and revenue model.

Revenue declined from $52.3M in FY 2024 to $25.2M in FY 2025, while net losses widened from -$78.1M to -$87.9M. Per the market data, operating margin and net margin are both -60%, gross margin is 0%, and ROIC is -35%. The Altman Z-Score is 0.2 and the Piotroski F-Score is 1/9, both consistent with significant financial distress. Debt/Equity is 0.5; the debt figures themselves are N/A in the SEC financials.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case: Revenue of $25.2M in FY 2025 and a 1.03% price gain on the day show the company still generates sales and has some trading momentum. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 (ROIC -35.0%, FCF yield —) and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $0.75 – $2.55 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: A -35% ROIC, 0% FCF yield, Altman Z-Score of 0.2, and Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 point to severe financial distress and forensic balance-sheet risk. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Supply_chain is NONE and there are no butterfly_links. Upstream and downstream dependencies are — Sector correlations beyond the stated sector (Health Care) and industry (Biotechnology: Biological Products) are — Investors should watch for 2nd-order bottlenecks in clinical, manufacturing, or partnership dependencies, none of which are identified in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: What are the company's debt obligations, given that debt figures are N/A in the SEC financials while Debt/Equity is reported as 0.5?
  • Key Question #2: What is the cash runway implied by $41.7M cash against FY 2025 free cash flow of -$89.5M?
  • Key Question #3: Who are the institutional and insider holders, and what is their recent activity?

MGX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Metagenomi Therapeutics Inc. (MGX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MGX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MGX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.76?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MGX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MGX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $0.94 (+20.5%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Revenue of $25.2M in FY 2025 and a 1.03% price gain on the day show the company still generates sales and has some trading momentum.

Revenue of $25.2M in FY 2025 and a 1.03% price gain on the day show the company still generates sales and has some trading momentum.. When you look under the hood at MGX, Fundamental Cash Engine is 5/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -35.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $2.55. My 12M target is $0.94.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Shorting a 3/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $0.78 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

CR CreditSpread_Watch Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.62 (-20.5%)
Spot @ $0.78

A -35% ROIC, 0% FCF yield, Altman Z-Score of 0.2, and Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 point to severe financial distress and forensic balance-

A -35% ROIC, 0% FCF yield, Altman Z-Score of 0.2, and Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 point to severe financial distress and forensic balance-sheet risk.. Look at the math on MGX: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -35.0% ROIC and -60.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $0.69 before getting long.

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