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SUJA (52) BRCC (39) AGCC (40) WEST (37) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$17.21 +2.87% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.27

MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $368.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MGPI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, MGP Ingredients Inc. (NASDAQ: MGPI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $17.21 (+2.87% 1D, market cap $368.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, MGPI ranks #102 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MGPI compare to SUJA and BRCC in the Consumer Staples sector?
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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Beverages (Production/Distribution)), MGPI carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 37.2%, and ROIC of -10.7%. By comparison, SUJA (Suja Life Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $411.4M) and BRCC (BRC Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -26.4%, cap $315.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGPI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AGCC leads on capital efficiency (1.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MGPI?
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Per MGPI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000835011), MGP Ingredients Inc. generated $536.4M in revenue (-23.8% YoY), -$107.8M in net income, and $76.0M in free cash flow against $1.24B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.27 (+0.33%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 14.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510041
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk E
Cash (9)Whales (10)SEC (5)Macro (8)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.7% Base Target
$28 Bull$16 Base$12 Bear
📬 FREE MGPI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MGPI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MGPI SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.1% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 14.2% FCF Margin ($76.0M FCF) & 37.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 15 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
33
Grade E$14.36+4.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
36
Grade E$15.02+3.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
38
Grade E$15.52+10.9% Next Q
Current
41
Grade D-$17.21-7.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (33) → D- (41)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MGPI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MGPI currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($14.99) and Max Pain ($18.07) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $27.95.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MGPI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MGPI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 41%NO 59%Trade / Inspect Odds →
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

MGPI Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (MGPI)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on MGPI. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MGPI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MGPI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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MGPI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.56%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $16.73H $17.21L $16.73C $17.21VOL 392.8K
RES: $20.33SUP: $11.54SMA50: $14.99SMA200: $18.23
$25.08$21.65$18.22$14.79$11.36RES $20.33SUP $11.54$17.212026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MGPI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MGPI Butterfly Map → + Track MGPI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -23.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MGPI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MGPI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MGPI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MGPI)

Consumer Staples Rank #102 of 146 ⚔️ SUJA vs MGPI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (MGPI vs. SUJA, BRCC, AGCC, WEST)

Industry: Beverages (Production/Distribution) (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI) ranks #102 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #88 by equity capitalization ($368.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MGPI leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while AGCC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 1.4% ROIC and 30.4% gross margin. SUJA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with MGPI at 41/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MGPI ACTIVE
MGP Ingredients Inc.
D- 41/100 — 37.2% -10.7% +2.87% $368.7M Benchmark Subject
SUJA
Suja Life Inc. (Class A)
D+ 52/100 — — — -2.25% $411.4M /suja-vs-mgpi →
BRCC
BRC Inc. (Class A)
D- 39/100 — 34.6% -26.4% +0.56% $315.4M /brcc-vs-mgpi →
AGCC
Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (Class A)
D- 40/100 — 30.4% 1.4% -7.41% $850.7M /agcc-vs-mgpi →
WEST
Westrock Coffee Company
D- 37/100 — 12.7% -11.8% -2.32% $993.2M /west-vs-mgpi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000835011

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI) reported GAAP revenue of $536.4M (-23.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $703.6M , and -35.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$107.8M, operating cash flow of $121.5M, and free cash flow of $76.0M (+144.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, MGPI closed FY2025 with $1.24B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.43, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $536.4M -$107.8M $121.5M $76.0M $1.24B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $703.6M $34.7M $102.3M $31.1M $1.41B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $836.5M $107.5M $83.8M $83.8M — —

3. MGPI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MGPI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, MGP Ingredients Inc. (NASDAQ: MGPI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $17.21 (+2.87% 1D, market cap $368.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, MGPI ranks #102 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MGPI compare to SUJA and BRCC in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Beverages (Production/Distribution)), MGPI carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 37.2%, and ROIC of -10.7%. By comparison, SUJA (Suja Life Inc. (Class A)) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $411.4M) and BRCC (BRC Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -26.4%, cap $315.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MGPI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AGCC leads on capital efficiency (1.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MGPI?

Per MGPI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000835011), MGP Ingredients Inc. generated $536.4M in revenue (-23.8% YoY), -$107.8M in net income, and $76.0M in free cash flow against $1.24B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MGPI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MGPI last traded at $17.21 (+2.87% on volume of 392,761 shares), positioning the stock +14.81% above its 50-day simple moving average ($14.99) and -5.60% below its 200-day simple moving average ($18.23). Across its 52-week range of $12.42 to $26.62, MGPI sits at the 33.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 68.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.1% ($15.47 to $18.95).

Direct Sub-Reports: MGPI RQD Cockpit MGPI 12M Forecast MGPI Earnings & Move MGPI Dividends & DRIP MGPI Insiders & 13F MGPI Whale Options MGPI Profit Sankey MGPI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 41/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MGPI — MGP Ingredients Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 41/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $17.21 (+2.87% 1D, market capitalization $368.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -10.7%, gross margin of 37.2%, operating margin of -17.6%, and free cash flow yield of 20.63%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (9/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.43, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI) is listed on NASDAQ and classified under the Consumer Staples sector and the Beverages (Production/Distribution) industry..4B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI) reported $536.4M in annual revenue (up from $703.6M in FY2024, -23.8% YoY) and -$107.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($836.5M revenue, $107.5M net income) through FY2025, MGPI scaled operating cash flow to $121.5M and free cash flow to $76.0M, backed by $1.24B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 41/100): Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 20.63% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $12.42 – $26.62 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -17.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— for upstream dependencies, downstream customers, or sector correlation mapping. A prospective investor should note the Consumer Staples and Beverages classification but cannot trace specific ripple effects from the provided material.

  • Key Question #1: Can MGPI sustain or expand its -17.6% operating margin and -10.7% ROIC against Beverages (Production/Distribution) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $536.4M and free cash flow of $76.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MGPI's equity valuation to Consumer Staples capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MGPI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MGPI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MGPI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $17.21?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MGPI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MGPI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $22.37 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

A 20.63% FCF yield implies strong cash generation relative to the $368.7M market capitalization, per the Roarable RQD rating's cash-eng

Here is why I am bullish on MGPI here at $17.21: A 20.63% FCF yield implies strong cash generation relative to the $368.7M market capitalization, per the Roarable RQD rating's cash-engine inputs.. Compare MGPI's -17.6% operating margin and -10.7% ROIC against the rest of Beverages (Production/Distribution). As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $16.35 are getting bought.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Shorting a 10/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $17.21 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Staples.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $13.08 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $17.21

Revenue fell from $836.5M in FY 2023 to $536.4M in FY 2025 while operating income swung to -$94.6M, and the Altman Z-Score of 1.43 flag

Revenue fell from $836.5M in FY 2023 to $536.4M in FY 2025 while operating income swung to -$94.6M, and the Altman Z-Score of 1.43 flags balance-sheet vulnerability.. Look at the math on MGPI: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -10.7% ROIC and -17.6% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Beverages (Production/Distribution) demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $15.14 before getting long.

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