Stock Ratings / Financials / MFG / options

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Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan) (MFG) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$9.66 -3.30% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.58

Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan) (MFG) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $120.26B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MFG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MFG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan) (NYSE: MFG) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $9.66 (-3.30% 1D, market cap $120.26B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MFG ranks #496 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MFG compare to COF and BNS in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), MFG carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, COF (Capital One Financial Corporation) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 52.2x, ROIC 0.9%, cap $125.67B) and BNS (Bank Nova Scotia Halifax Pfd 3) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $115.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BNY leads on earnings multiple (18.3x) while MFG leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MFG?

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For Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan) (MFG), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. and sector rank #496 in Financials, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.58 (-0.78%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 15.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MFG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MFG SCORES 56/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 15.8% FCF Margin ($2.66B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$10.26-2.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$10.01-2.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$9.73-0.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$9.66-0.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → D+ (56)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MFG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, MFG faces multiple-compression risk if 32.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.58) or 200D SMA ($9.56) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.57) toward Bear Floor ($7.46).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MFG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MFG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.1%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MFG)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MFG.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MFG)

✓Walkthrough of MFG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MFG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.86%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $9.99H $9.99L $9.66C $9.66VOL 4.10M

RES: $12.12SUP: $9.37SMA50: $10.58SMA200: $9.56

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MFG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MFG Butterfly Map → + Track MFG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +23.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MFG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MFG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MFG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MFG)

Financials Rank #496 of 1096 ⚔️ COF vs MFG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MFG vs. COF, BNS, BNY, UBS)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan) (MFG) ranks #496 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #26 by equity capitalization ($120.26B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BNY leads on earnings valuation at 18.3x trailing P/E, while MFG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. BNY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with MFG at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MFG ACTIVE Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan)	D+	56/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-3.30%	$120.26B	Benchmark Subject
COF Capital One Financial Corporation	C	64/100	52.2x	—	0.9%	-1.86%	$125.67B	/cof-vs-mfg →
BNS Bank Nova Scotia Halifax Pfd 3	C	65/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-1.73%	$115.02B	/bns-vs-mfg →
BNY The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation	C+	66/100	18.3x	—	2.4%	-1.51%	$99.81B	/bny-vs-mfg →
UBS UBS Group AG Registered	D+	58/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	-0.91%	$148.00B	/ubs-vs-mfg →

2. MFG Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan) (MFG) operates in Major Banks (Financials) with an equity capitalization of $120.26B, trailing P/E of 32.8x, forward P/E of 27.6x, and EV/EBITDA of 21.0x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, net profit margin of 10.9%, ROIC of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.

3. MFG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MFG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MFG compare to COF and BNS in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MFG?

Where is MFG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MFG last traded at $9.66 (-3.30% on volume of 4,102,044 shares), positioning the stock -8.70% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.58) and +1.05% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.56). Across its 52-week range of $6.45 to $11.49, MFG sits at the 63.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($9.26 to $10.06).

MFG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MFG's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for MFG.

Direct Sub-Reports: MFG RQD Cockpit MFG 12M Forecast MFG Earnings & Move MFG Dividends & DRIP MFG Insiders & 13F MFG Whale Options MFG Profit Sankey MFG News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 56/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MFG — Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T14:08:05Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MFG holds an RQD Score of 60, a letter grade of C-, and the verdict "Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 12 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 9.9% and an FCF yield of 2.21%. Per the market data, these are the two cash-generation figures supplied; the source does not provide revenue, free cash flow dollar amounts, or a multi-period trend to test durability.
Whale 13F Flow: 10 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar is described as institutional accumulation and options positioning. The holders section contains no 13F data, so the underlying flow cannot be verified from the source.
Insider Conviction: 12 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar is described as SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The holders section contains no insider or Congressional transaction records, so this score cannot be traced to specific trades here.
Macro Regime Fit: 11 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects a beta of 0.92 and sector sensitivity. A beta below 1.0 implies, per the market data, lower sensitivity than the broad market; the source does not quantify the sector sensitivity itself.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 15 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a Debt/Equity of 0.5. This is the strongest pillar and suggests the balance-sheet profile is the most solid component of the rating.

For a prospective investor, the composite reading is neutral. The strongest support is the forensic balance sheet; the weakest are whale flow and macro fit. The valuation tradeoff is significant: per the market data, the trailing P/E of 32.8 and EV/EBITDA of 21 are high relative to the 2.21% FCF yield, meaning the price embeds expectations that the source data does not explain. Upside depends on earnings growth or multiple support that the source does not document; downside is cushioned by the balance-sheet pillar but not eliminated. This is an analytical framing, not a recommendation.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
9.99	$124.37B	32.8	27.6	21	0.3	0%	0.92	$6.45 - $11.49	9.9%

Open Questions

What are the reported revenue, operating income, net income, and free cash flow figures by period, since the financials section is empty and the ROIC and FCF yield cannot be traced to dollar amounts?
What does the gross margin of 0% reflect, and is it a reporting artifact or a real characteristic of the business?
What is the actual 13F institutional and insider transaction record underlying the whale-flow and insider-conviction pillar scores?
What is the analyst consensus, price target range, and coverage depth, given that no analyst data was supplied?
What catalysts or risks are driving the 2.67% daily move and the stock's position within its 52-week range, since no news was supplied?

MFG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan) (MFG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MFG Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 3d ago

BOJ speeds up ETF sales, potentially boosting funding for Takaichi’s plans

Investing.com -- The Bank of Japan’s decision to accelerate sales of its exchange-traded fund holdings could generate additional government revenue, potentially helping Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi finance her ambitious

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 3d ago

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance shares are trading higher after the company announced it entered into a definitive agreement to sell the company's commercial real estate loan portfolio to Athene Holding.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Benzinga • 5d ago

$100 Invested In Mizuho Financial Group 5 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today

Mizuho Financial Group (NYSE:MFG) has outperformed the market over the past 5 years by 18.58% on an annualized basis producing an average annual return of 29.38%. Currently, Mizuho Financial Group has a market

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 6d ago

Mizuho Financial Group (TSE:8411) Stock Trades At A Discount To Fair Value

Mizuho Financial Group has delivered a powerful share price run over the past several years, so the key issue now is whether that move is backed up by the returns it earns on its capital. With a very long stretch of gain

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 7d ago

Citigroup Enters China's Securities Market With CSRC Approval

C secures approval to launch a wholly owned securities business in China, expanding its onshore capital markets reach and creating new growth opportunities.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 7d ago

Will JPMorgan's Nigeria Expansion Bolster Its Growth Prospects?

JPM advances its Nigeria expansion with approval for a merchant bank, targeting corporate banking, capital markets and cross-border financing opportunities.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 7d ago

Down 13.6% in 4 Weeks, Here's Why You Should You Buy the Dip in Mizuho (MFG)

Mizuho (MFG) is technically in oversold territory now, so the heavy selling pressure might have exhausted. This along with strong agreement among Wall Street analysts in raising earnings estimates could lead to a trend r

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 10d ago

Robinhood Could Be Ready to Launch Single-Stock Perpetual Futures. Here's Why That's Bullish for HOOD Stock.

The online brokerage could venture beyond options with single-stock perps.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MFG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.66?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MFG 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $10.79 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MFG (C- • RQD 60/100) a Buy at $9.99?

Welcome to the MFG (Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan)) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 60/100 (Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral) in Major Banks. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (32.8x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.29 (-17.0%)

Spot @ $9.99

Pump the brakes on MFG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MFG, but look at what you are paying: 32.8x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Sponosred ADR (Japan) expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.49 (+25.0%)

Spot @ $9.99

MFG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MFG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Banks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $9.99 (52-wk range $6.45 - $11.49), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.