How profitable is Mercury General Corporation (MCY)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), MCY converted $6.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $1.1B in free cash flow (18.1% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Financials / MCY / financials

MTG (72) SIGI (74) WTM (70) RLI (80) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Mercury General Corporation (MCY) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$103.73 +1.28% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $104.22

Mercury General Corporation (MCY) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 72/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 22% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $5.67B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MCY Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MCY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Mercury General Corporation (NYSE: MCY) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 72/100 at a spot price of $103.73 (+1.28% 1D, market cap $5.67B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MCY ranks #69 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MCY compare to MTG and SIGI in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), MCY carries a Roarable B (72/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 22.4%. By comparison, MTG (MGIC Investment Corporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 8.0x, ROIC 13.2%, cap $5.83B) and SIGI (Selective Insurance Group Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 12.6x, ROIC 6.8%, cap $5.83B). Among the 5-stock peer group, WTM leads on earnings multiple (4.8x) while MCY leads on capital efficiency (22.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MCY?

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Per MCY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000064996), Mercury General Corporation generated $5.99B in revenue (+9.4% YoY), $541.1M in net income, and $1.09B in free cash flow against $9.56B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $104.22 (+0.47%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 18.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 72/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 13% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.7% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+6.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MCY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (72/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MCY SCORES 72/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 18.1% FCF Margin ($1.09B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$102.88+2.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$105.03-2.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$102.58+1.1% Next Q

Current

Grade B$103.73+7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (64) → B (72)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MCY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 72/100 (B) score, MCY faces multiple-compression risk if 10.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($102.11) or 200D SMA ($98.75) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($110.26) toward Bear Floor ($85.06).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MCY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MCY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 72%NO 28%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How MCY Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$1.09B (18.1% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.63B

FY24

Rev $5.48B

FY25

Rev $5.99B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$5.99B	52%	0%	$541.1M	$1.09B	22.4%
FY 2024	$5.48B	52%	0%	$468.0M	$1.04B	22.4%
FY 2023	$4.63B	52%	0%	$96.3M	$453.0M	22.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MCY)

✓Walkthrough of MCY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MCY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.63%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $102.7H $103.7L $102.4C $103.7VOL 142.0K

RES: $107.4SUP: $93.94SMA50: $102.1SMA200: $98.75

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MCY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MCY Butterfly Map → + Track MCY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

-0.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MCY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MCY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MCY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MCY)

Financials Rank #69 of 1097 ⚔️ MTG vs MCY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MCY vs. MTG, SIGI, WTM, RLI)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Mercury General Corporation (MCY) ranks #69 by composite RQD confidence (72/100, grade B) and #254 by equity capitalization ($5.67B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WTM leads on earnings valuation at 4.8x trailing P/E, while MCY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.4% ROIC and — gross margin. RLI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 80/100 (B+) compared with MCY at 72/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MCY ACTIVE Mercury General Corporation	B	72/100	10.5x	—	22.4%	+1.28%	$5.67B	Benchmark Subject
MTG MGIC Investment Corporation	B	72/100	8.0x	—	13.2%	+1.87%	$5.83B	/mtg-vs-mcy →
SIGI Selective Insurance Group Inc.	B	74/100	12.6x	—	6.8%	+1.95%	$5.83B	/sigi-vs-mcy →
WTM White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd.	B-	70/100	4.8x	—	16.4%	+2.09%	$5.42B	/wtm-vs-mcy →
RLI RLI Corp.	B+	80/100	14.7x	—	13.5%	+3.08%	$5.98B	/rli-vs-mcy →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000064996 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Mercury General Corporation (MCY) reported GAAP revenue of $5.99B (+9.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $5.48B , and +29.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $541.1M, operating cash flow of $1.09B, and free cash flow of $1.09B (+4.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, MCY closed FY2025 with $9.56B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$5.99B	$541.1M	$1.09B	$1.09B	$9.56B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$5.48B	$468.0M	$1.04B	$1.04B	$8.31B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$4.63B	$96.3M	$453.0M	$453.0M	—	—

3. MCY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MCY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MCY compare to MTG and SIGI in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MCY?

Where is MCY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MCY last traded at $103.73 (+1.28% on volume of 275,381 shares), positioning the stock +1.59% above its 50-day simple moving average ($102.11) and +5.04% above its 200-day simple moving average ($98.75). Across its 52-week range of $74.29 to $113.06, MCY sits at the 75.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.5% ($99.06 to $108.40).

Direct Sub-Reports: MCY RQD Cockpit MCY 12M Forecast MCY Earnings & Move MCY Dividends & DRIP MCY Insiders & 13F MCY Whale Options MCY Profit Sankey MCY News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 72/100 (B) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MCY — Mercury General Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Mercury General Corporation (MCY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 72/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $103.73 (+1.28% 1D, market capitalization $5.67B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 22.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 19.12%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Per the market data, reported net margin is 9%, while gross margin and operating margin are each shown as 0%, which the source does not explain.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Mercury General Corporation (MCY) reported $5.99B in annual revenue (up from $5.48B in FY2024, +9.4% YoY) and $541.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.63B revenue, $96.3M net income) through FY2025, MCY scaled operating cash flow to $1.09B and free cash flow to $1.09B, backed by $9.56B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (B • RQD 72/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $74.29 – $113.06 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 10.5x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The supply chain is NONE, with an empty list of butterfly links and an empty list of proprietary signals. The source therefore does not identify upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations beyond the sector and industry labels. Second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped . Investors should treat this section as unresolved rather than as evidence of an absence of ripple effects.

Key Question #1: Can MCY sustain or expand its — operating margin and 22.4% ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $5.99B and free cash flow of $1.09B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is MCY's 9.8x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MCY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Mercury General Corporation (MCY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MCY Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 23h ago

Mercury General Corporation (MCY) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Mercury General Corporation (MCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Mercury General Corporation Estimates – NYSE:MCY

TradingView report covering Mercury General Corporation (MCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Should Value Investors Buy Mercury General (MCY) Stock?

Yahoo Finance report covering Mercury General Corporation (MCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Mercury General Corporation $MCY Stock Holdings Lowered by Inspire Investing LLC

MarketBeat report covering Mercury General Corporation (MCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Mercury General (MCY) reports Q3: everything you need to know ahead of earnings

Yahoo Finance report covering Mercury General Corporation (MCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Is Mercury General (MCY) Stock Undervalued Right Now?

Yahoo Finance report covering Mercury General Corporation (MCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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Best Value Stocks to Buy for October 12th

Yahoo Finance report covering Mercury General Corporation (MCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 1d ago

Mercury General Corporation (MCY) Stock Forecasts

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering Mercury General Corporation (MCY) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MCY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $103.73?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MCY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $129.05 (+26.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC of 22.4% and a trailing P/E of 10.5 point to strong cash returns at a modest earnings multiple.

Long MCY at $102.42 targeting $129.05. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC of 22.4% and a trailing P/E of 10.5 point to strong cash returns at a modest earnings multiple.. Institutional whale score is 11/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $74.29 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@TapeReader_Pro Agree on the RQD 72/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $102.42 and keeping dry powder in case we test $95.25.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $76.81 (-25.0%)

Spot @ $102.42

Per the market data, the $102.65 price sits in the upper portion of the $74.29–$113.06 52-week range while institutional flow scores on

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short MCY above $102.42. Per the market data, the $102.65 price sits in the upper portion of the $74.29–$113.06 52-week range while institutional flow scores only 12 of 20.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20) and FCF yield (19.12%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $113.06.