Moelis & Company (MC) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$58.59 -2.32% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.23

Moelis & Company (MC) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $4.59B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Moelis & Company (NYSE: MC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $58.59 (-2.32% 1D, market cap $4.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 19/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MC ranks #266 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MC compare to HLNE and FHI in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), MC carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 42.8%. By comparison, HLNE (Hamilton Lane Incorporated) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 18.9x, ROIC 24.7%, cap $4.62B) and FHI (Federated Hermes Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 39.8%, cap $4.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FHI leads on earnings multiple (10.7x) while MC leads on capital efficiency (42.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MC?
▼

Per MC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001596967), Moelis & Company generated $0 in revenue, $259.6M in net income, and $540.0M in free cash flow against $1.74B in total assets and $477.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $58.23 (-0.61%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 13.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510064
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk D+
Cash (17)Whales (7)SEC (15)Macro (6)CEO (19)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
$82 Bull$60 Base$47 Bear
📬 FREE MC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MC SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 13.5% FCF Margin ($540.0M FCF) & 0% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (53.2) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$54.27-2.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
59
Grade C$53.06+9.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
61
Grade C$58.30+0.5% Next Q
Current
64
Grade C$58.59+1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, MC faces multiple-compression risk if 18.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($59.72) or 200D SMA ($63.73) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($60.17) toward Bear Floor ($46.93).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
53.230 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
9 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE28% OF RANGE
L: $51$58.59H: $78
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: A-RQD 17 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on MC

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (85)

42.8% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 11.50% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 9/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (53)

26/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MC
  • ✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (MC Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
MC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.99%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $59.98H $59.98L $58.59C $58.59VOL 735.2K
RES: $67.67SUP: $49.99SMA50: $59.72SMA200: $63.73
$74.14$67.97$61.80$55.63$49.47RES $67.67SUP $49.99$58.592026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
11.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +23.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MC)

Financials Rank #266 of 1096 ⚔️ HLNE vs MC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MC vs. HLNE, FHI, STEP, MAAS)

Industry: Investment Managers (79 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Moelis & Company (MC) ranks #266 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #284 by equity capitalization ($4.59B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FHI leads on earnings valuation at 10.7x trailing P/E, while MC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 42.8% ROIC and — gross margin. FHI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with MC at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MC ACTIVE
Moelis & Company
C 64/100 18.1x — 42.8% -2.32% $4.59B Benchmark Subject
HLNE
Hamilton Lane Incorporated
C+ 66/100 18.9x — 24.7% -2.04% $4.62B /hlne-vs-mc →
FHI
Federated Hermes Inc.
B 74/100 10.7x — 39.8% +0.81% $4.37B /fhi-vs-mc →
STEP
StepStone Group Inc.
D 46/100 — — -35.0% -2.81% $5.22B /step-vs-mc →
MAAS
Maase Inc. (Class A)
D 49/100 — — — +0.16% $5.42B /maas-vs-mc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001596967

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Moelis & Company (MC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $259.6M, operating cash flow of $576.3M, and free cash flow of $540.0M (+30.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, MC closed FY2025 with $1.74B in total assets against $477.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 $259.6M $576.3M $540.0M $1.74B $477.1M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $151.5M $427.5M $415.4M $1.38B $404.8M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 -$27.5M $158.5M $158.5M $2.58B $604.2M

3. MC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Moelis & Company (NYSE: MC) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $58.59 (-2.32% 1D, market cap $4.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 19/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MC ranks #266 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MC compare to HLNE and FHI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), MC carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 18.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 42.8%. By comparison, HLNE (Hamilton Lane Incorporated) holds a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 18.9x, ROIC 24.7%, cap $4.62B) and FHI (Federated Hermes Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 39.8%, cap $4.37B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FHI leads on earnings multiple (10.7x) while MC leads on capital efficiency (42.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MC?

Per MC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001596967), Moelis & Company generated $0 in revenue, $259.6M in net income, and $540.0M in free cash flow against $1.74B in total assets and $477.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MC last traded at $58.59 (-2.32% on volume of 735,187 shares), positioning the stock -1.89% below its 50-day simple moving average ($59.72) and -8.07% below its 200-day simple moving average ($63.73). Across its 52-week range of $51.06 to $78.22, MC sits at the 27.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($54.14 to $63.04).

MC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell MC stock right now?

Moelis & Company (MC) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (43% return on capital), mixed timing at 18x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is MC's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

MC's 12-month base price target is $60.17 (range $46.93 to $82.13), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 64/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

MC — Moelis & Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:21:16Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, MC scores 68 out of 100 with a letter grade of C+ and a verdict of "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." Across the five pillars: Fundamental Cash Engine scores 17/20 (ROIC 42.8%; FCF yield 11.5%), the strongest contributor and the clearest support for the rating. Whale 13F Flow scores 10/20, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning that is only moderately supportive. Insider Conviction scores 19/20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, the highest pillar. Macro Regime Fit scores 7/20 (Beta 0.88; sector sensitivity), the weakest pillar and a drag on the composite. Forensic Balance Sheet scores 15/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 9/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on cash generation and insider conviction, which the rating treats as the most reliable inputs. The valuation tradeoff is that the rating is a "Hold" rather than a "Buy," and the macro pillar indicates the stock's sensitivity to its sector environment is a meaningful limitation. The "Watch for Breakout" language signals the rating itself identifies a possible change in direction as something to monitor rather than an established trend.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$59.98$4.69B18.115.215.23.320%0.88$51.06 - $78.2242.8%

Business

Moelis & Company (MC) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Investment Managers industry, per the company profile. The provided source data does not describe its specific products, customer base, or revenue model. Revenue is reported as $0.0M in each SEC financials period, so the source data does not support a description of how the company earns income. Not available in source data for the remaining business detail.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$273.9M$259.6MN/A$540.0M$508.6M$477.1M
FY 2024$0.0M$172.9M$151.5MN/A$415.4M$412.5M$404.8M
FY 2023$0.0M$-40.4M$-27.5MN/A$158.5MN/A$604.2M

Per the SEC financials, net income moved from $-27.5M in FY 2023 to $151.5M in FY 2024 and $259.6M in FY 2025, while debt fell from $604.2M to $477.1M over the same span. Per the market data, operating margin is 20.8%, net margin 19.8%, and gross margin 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 42.8%, Altman Z is 2.5, and Piotroski F is 9/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.5. Revenue and EPS are not available in the SEC financials beyond the reported $0.0M and N/A values.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Price target cut (RISK WATCH, RED): A TradingView headline reports a 12-month price target cut to $67.5, implying 18% upside.
  • Average price target (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A MarketBeat headline reports an average price target of $71.00 according to brokerages.
  • Institutional holding change (CATALYST, GREEN): A MarketBeat headline reports Fort Washington Investment Advisors Inc. OH raised its holdings.
  • Price movement (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW): A headline reports MC edged up 1.44% to $57.08, at the midpoint of its range.
  • General market wire items (YELLOW): Yahoo! Finance Canada, Yahoo Finance, and the stock forecast coverage are generic items without specific catalyst detail.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply_chain field is NONE, there are no butterfly links, and there are no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are MC's revenue and EPS figures, given the SEC financials show $0.0M revenue and N/A EPS across all periods?
  • What is the company's specific business mix and customer base within Investment Managers?
  • What is the size and direction of the Fort Washington holding change, and what other institutional or insider positions exist?
  • What is the analyst consensus rating and full price target range behind the $71.00 average?
  • What drives the Macro Regime Fit pillar score of 7/20, and how does sector sensitivity affect the stock beyond the 0.88 beta?

MC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Moelis & Company (MC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $58.59?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MC 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $64.78 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is MC (C+ • RQD 68/100) a Buy at $59.98?

Welcome to the MC (Moelis & Company) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 68/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Investment Managers. Bulls point to capital efficiency (42.8% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $49.18 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $59.98

Pump the brakes on MC — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on MC, but look at what you are paying: 18.1x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Moelis & Company expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $75.57 (+26.0%)
Spot @ $59.98

MC cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on MC, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Investment Managers and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $59.98 (52-wk range $51.06 - $78.22), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $204.64 -4.22% AAPL $344.63 -1.23% MSFT $521.91 -1.55% TSLA $399.81 -0.86% PLTR $184.11 -6.27% SOFI $16.76 -4.83% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%