How profitable is MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), MAX converted $1.1B of revenue into a 15% gross margin, 2% operating margin, and $65.3M in free cash flow (5.9% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MAX / financials

PHR (56) QNST (70) AHG (32) CASS (62) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$14.78 +0.20% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.76

MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $873.1M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MAX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MAX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: MAX) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $14.78 (+0.20% 1D, market cap $873.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MAX ranks #173 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MAX compare to PHR and QNST in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), MAX carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.6x, gross margin of 15.0%, and ROIC of 19.7%. By comparison, PHR (Phreesia Inc.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.0%, cap $772.2M) and QNST (QuinStreet Inc.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.6%, cap $995.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CASS leads on earnings multiple (19.6x) while MAX leads on capital efficiency (19.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAX?

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Per MAX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001818383), MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) generated $1.11B in revenue (+28.8% YoY), $25.6M in net income, and $65.3M in free cash flow against $383.8M in total assets and $131.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (15.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.76 (-0.15%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 5.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MAX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MAX SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (71.8) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$10.47+12.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$11.79-0.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$11.77+25.6% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$14.78+2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MAX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, MAX faces multiple-compression risk if 32.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.34) or 200D SMA ($10.66) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($15.51) toward Bear Floor ($12.10).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MAX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MAX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How MAX Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$65.3M (5.9% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $388.1M

FY24

Rev $864.7M

FY25

Rev $1.11B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$1.11B	15%	2%	$25.6M	$65.3M	19.7%
FY 2024	$864.7M	16.6%	4.9%	$16.6M	$45.6M	29.9%
FY 2023	$388.1M	15%	-10.3%	-$40.4M	$20.2M	19.7%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MAX)

✓Walkthrough of MAX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MAX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +66.25%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-03O $14.13H $14.78L $14.13C $14.78VOL 2.02M

RES: $14.87SUP: $9.35SMA50: $11.34SMA200: $10.66

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MAX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MAX Butterfly Map → + Track MAX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

25.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +28.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MAX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MAX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MAX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MAX)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #173 of 1009 ⚔️ PHR vs MAX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MAX vs. PHR, QNST, AHG, CASS)

Industry: Business Services (88 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) ranks #173 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #524 by equity capitalization ($873.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CASS leads on earnings valuation at 19.6x trailing P/E, while MAX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.7% ROIC and 15.0% gross margin. QNST currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with MAX at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MAX ACTIVE MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A)	C+	69/100	32.6x	15.0%	19.7%	+0.20%	$873.1M	Benchmark Subject
PHR Phreesia Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	-2.0%	0.00%	$772.2M	/phr-vs-max →
QNST QuinStreet Inc.	B-	70/100	—	10.1%	2.6%	+0.92%	$995.7M	/qnst-vs-max →
AHG Akso Health Group ADS	E	32/100	—	-0.1%	—	+4.17%	$1.08B	/ahg-vs-max →
CASS Cass Information Systems Inc	C	62/100	19.6x	—	14.5%	+2.56%	$675.4M	/cass-vs-max →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001818383 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) reported GAAP revenue of $1.11B (+28.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $864.7M , and +186.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $25.6M, operating cash flow of $65.6M, and free cash flow of $65.3M (+43.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, MAX closed FY2025 with $383.8M in total assets against $131.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.64, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.11B	$25.6M	$65.6M	$65.3M	$383.8M	$131.6M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$864.7M	$16.6M	$45.9M	$45.6M	$262.4M	$153.6M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$388.1M	-$40.4M	$20.2M	$20.2M	—	—

3. MAX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MAX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does MAX compare to PHR and QNST in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAX?

Where is MAX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MAX last traded at $14.78 (+0.20% on volume of 1,943,142 shares), positioning the stock +30.34% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.34) and +38.65% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.66). Across its 52-week range of $7.09 to $14.87, MAX sits at the 98.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 71.8 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($12.93 to $16.63).

Direct Sub-Reports: MAX RQD Cockpit MAX 12M Forecast MAX Earnings & Move MAX Dividends & DRIP MAX Insiders & 13F MAX Whale Options MAX Profit Sankey MAX News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MAX — MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $14.78 (+0.20% 1D, market capitalization $873.1M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 19.7%, gross margin of 15.0%, operating margin of 2.0%, and free cash flow yield of 7.80%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.64, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 8.50x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. (Class A) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and Business Services industry. Per the market data, the company reports a gross margin of 15%. —: the products or services sold, the customer base, and the specific revenue model.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) reported $1.11B in annual revenue (up from $864.7M in FY2024, +28.8% YoY) and $25.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($388.1M revenue, -$40.4M net income) through FY2025, MAX scaled operating cash flow to $65.6M and free cash flow to $65.3M, backed by $383.8M in total assets against $131.6M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Strong cash generator (15.0% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $7.09 – $14.87 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 32.6x trailing P/E and 41.1x EV/EBITDA against 2.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The supply chain is recorded as "NONE" and the butterfly links list is empty. —: upstream suppliers, downstream customers, and sector correlation links.

Key Question #1: Can MAX sustain or expand its 2.0% operating margin and 19.7% ROIC against Business Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.11B and free cash flow of $65.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $131.6M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is MAX's 27.4x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MAX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MAX Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

MediaAlpha (MAX) Stock Jumps As Q3 Earnings Ignite Durability Debate

Yahoo Finance report covering MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

MediaAlpha: A Cheap Bet On The Insurance Advertising Recovery (NYSE:MAX)

Seeking Alpha report covering MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST TradingView • 1d ago

MediaAlpha, Inc. Stock 12‑Month Price Target Raised to $15.88, Implies 35% Upside

TradingView report covering MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST FinancialContent • 1d ago

MediaAlpha (NYSE:MAX) beats expectations in strong Q3 2026, stock jumps 18%

FinancialContent report covering MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 1d ago

MediaAlpha CEO Steven Yi sells $263,320 in company stock

Investing.com report covering MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

What Makes MediaAlpha (MAX) a New Buy Stock

Yahoo Finance report covering MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 1d ago

Canaccord raises MediaAlpha stock price target on record results

Investing.com report covering MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

MediaAlpha, Inc. Estimates – NYSE:MAX

TradingView report covering MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MAX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $14.78?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MAX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $16.96 (+15.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, ROIC of 19.7% and a 7.8% FCF yield indicate efficient capital use and cash generation despite thin margins.

Per the RQD rating, ROIC of 19.7% and a 7.8% FCF yield indicate efficient capital use and cash generation despite thin margins.. When you look under the hood at MAX, Fundamental Cash Engine is 15/20 with 15.0% gross margins and 19.7% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (17/20) has been quietly accumulating below $14.87. My 12M target is $16.96.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — MAX's 12/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.51 (-22.0%)

Spot @ $14.75

Per the market data, trailing P/E of 32.6 and EV/EBITDA of 41.1 price in substantial optimism against a 2% operating margin.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on MAX: Per the market data, trailing P/E of 32.6 and EV/EBITDA of 41.1 price in substantial optimism against a 2% operating margin.. At 32.6x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Business Services triggers a 12-15% air pocket.