ROARABLE
FREE $100K
Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / MAIN
HASI (58) KYN (58) CET (51) BCAT (44) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$56.30 +1.88% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $56.38

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 43/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $5.17B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on MAIN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is MAIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Main Street Capital Corporation (NYSE: MAIN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $56.30 (+1.88% 1D, market cap $5.17B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MAIN ranks #838 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does MAIN compare to HASI and KYN in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Finance/Investors Services), MAIN carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 16.5%. By comparison, HASI (HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 26.1x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $4.78B) and KYN (Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund Inc.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MAIN leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while MAIN leads on capital efficiency (16.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAIN?
▼

Per MAIN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001396440), Main Street Capital Corporation generated $2.39B in revenue (+10.9% YoY), $493.4M in net income, and -$45.7M in free cash flow against $5.68B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $56.38 (+0.15%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (43/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
025507510043
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk E
Cash (9)Whales (8)SEC (10)Macro (3)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.7% Base Target
$68 Bull$53 Base$41 Bear
📬 FREE MAIN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MAIN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (43/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MAIN SCORES 43/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (53.7) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
35
Grade E$53.77-0.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
38
Grade E$53.36+1.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
40
Grade D$54.04+4.2% Next Q
Current
43
Grade D-$56.30-6.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (35) → D- (43)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MAIN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MAIN currently carries a cautious 43/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($55.58) and Max Pain ($59.12) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $68.49.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.32% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MAIN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MAIN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 43%NO 57%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
53.730 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
1 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE45% OF RANGE
L: $49$56.30H: $65
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 9 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 21 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: ERQD 13 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on MAIN

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (45)

16.5% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -0.87% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 1/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (40)

21/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 3/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like MAIN
  • ✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MAIN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of MAIN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
MAIN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.97%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $55.90H $56.30L $55.26C $56.30VOL 447.9K
RES: $61.13SUP: $52.81SMA50: $55.58SMA200: $55.41
$60.93$57.69$54.44$51.19$47.94RES $61.13SUP $52.81$56.302026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MAIN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MAIN Butterfly Map → + Track MAIN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
0.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MAIN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MAIN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MAIN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MAIN)

Financials Rank #838 of 1097 ⚔️ HASI vs MAIN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MAIN vs. HASI, KYN, CET, BCAT)

Industry: Finance/Investors Services (37 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) ranks #838 by composite RQD confidence (43/100, grade D-) and #268 by equity capitalization ($5.17B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MAIN leads on earnings valuation at 10.6x trailing P/E, while MAIN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.5% ROIC and — gross margin. HASI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 58/100 (D+) compared with MAIN at 43/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
MAIN ACTIVE
Main Street Capital Corporation
D- 43/100 10.6x — 16.5% +1.88% $5.17B Benchmark Subject
HASI
HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Inc.
D+ 58/100 26.1x — 6.9% +2.88% $4.78B /hasi-vs-main →
KYN
Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund Inc.
D+ 58/100 — — — -3.71% $2.02B /kyn-vs-main →
CET
Central Securities Corporation
D 51/100 — — — +0.99% $13.46B /cet-vs-main →
BCAT
BlackRock Capital Allocation Term Trust of
D 44/100 — — — -1.16% $1.49B /bcat-vs-main →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001396440 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) reported GAAP revenue of $2.39B (+10.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.15B , and +23.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $493.4M, operating cash flow of -$45.7M, and free cash flow of -$45.7M (+47.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, MAIN closed FY2025 with $5.68B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.39B $493.4M -$45.7M -$45.7M $5.68B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.15B $508.1M -$87.1M -$87.1M $5.12B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.93B $428.4M $285.3M $285.3M — —

3. MAIN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MAIN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Main Street Capital Corporation (NYSE: MAIN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 43/100 at a spot price of $56.30 (+1.88% 1D, market cap $5.17B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, MAIN ranks #838 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MAIN compare to HASI and KYN in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance/Investors Services), MAIN carries a Roarable D- (43/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 16.5%. By comparison, HASI (HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 26.1x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $4.78B) and KYN (Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund Inc.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.02B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MAIN leads on earnings multiple (10.6x) while MAIN leads on capital efficiency (16.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAIN?

Per MAIN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001396440), Main Street Capital Corporation generated $2.39B in revenue (+10.9% YoY), $493.4M in net income, and -$45.7M in free cash flow against $5.68B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MAIN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MAIN last traded at $56.30 (+1.88% on volume of 532,568 shares), positioning the stock +1.30% above its 50-day simple moving average ($55.58) and +1.61% above its 200-day simple moving average ($55.41). Across its 52-week range of $48.95 to $65.23, MAIN sits at the 45.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.7% ($54.22 to $58.38).

Direct Sub-Reports: MAIN RQD Cockpit MAIN 12M Forecast MAIN Earnings & Move MAIN Dividends & DRIP MAIN Insiders & 13F MAIN Whale Options MAIN Profit Sankey MAIN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 43/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

MAIN — Main Street Capital Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 43/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $56.30 (+1.88% 1D, market capitalization $5.17B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 16.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -0.87%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Finance/Investors Services industry..2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) reported $2.39B in annual revenue (up from $2.15B in FY2024, +10.9% YoY) and $493.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.93B revenue, $428.4M net income) through FY2025, MAIN scaled operating cash flow to -$45.7M and free cash flow to -$45.7M, backed by $5.68B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 43/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -0.87% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $48.95 – $65.23 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 10.6x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

There are no upstream or downstream links, no sector-correlation entries beyond the Financials classification, and no proprietary signals. — for upstream/downstream dependencies. — for sector correlations. — for 2nd-order bottlenecks.

  • Key Question #1: Can MAIN sustain or expand its — operating margin and 16.5% ROIC against Finance/Investors Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.39B and free cash flow of -$45.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is MAIN's 9.9x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

MAIN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to MAIN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

MAIN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $56.30?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON MAIN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on MAIN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $64.10 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Trading at a 10.6 TTM P/E and a 7.23% dividend yield with a 16.5% ROIC, the valuation is undemanding relative to reported returns.

Picked up a starter position in MAIN in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $55.26. Trading at a 10.6 TTM P/E and a 7.23% dividend yield with a 16.5% ROIC, the valuation is undemanding relative to reported returns.. Trading inside a $48.95–$65.23 52-week range with -0.87% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Finance/Investors Services multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Shorting a 8/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $55.26 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $45.87 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $55.26

Free cash flow is negative in FY 2025 (-$45.7M) and FY 2024 (-$87.1M), and the Piotroski F-Score is only 1/9.

Fading this rally in MAIN at $55.26. Free cash flow is negative in FY 2025 (-$45.7M) and FY 2024 (-$87.1M), and the Piotroski F-Score is only 1/9.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $55.26 (52-wk range $48.95–$65.23), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $202.06 -1.26% AAPL $338.32 -1.83% MSFT $507.12 -2.83% TSLA $403.82 +1.00% PLTR $178.34 -3.13% SOFI $16.60 -0.95% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%