Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / LVWR / insiders

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LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

Q: Where is LVWR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LVWR last traded at $0.66 (-26.67% on volume of 660,103 shares), positioning the stock -53.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.41) and -57.14% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.54). Across its 52-week range of $0.65 to $5.51, LVWR sits at the 0.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.74).

Q: Are LVWR insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies LVWR leadership and institutional positioning as: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING.

$0.66 -26.67% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.63

LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 20/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (20/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $184.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on LVWR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LVWR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, LiveWire Group Inc. (NYSE: LVWR) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 20/100 at a spot price of $0.66 (-26.67% 1D, market cap $184.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, LVWR ranks #990 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LVWR compare to FOXF and HOG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Motor Vehicles), LVWR carries a Roarable E (20/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -17.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, FOXF (Fox Factory Holding Corp.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $686.4M) and HOG (Harley-Davidson Inc.) posts a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 9.3x, ROIC 18.0%, cap $3.16B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LKQ leads on earnings multiple (7.5x) while HOG leads on capital efficiency (18.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LVWR?

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Per LVWR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001898795), LiveWire Group Inc. generated $25.7M in revenue (-3.6% YoY), -$75.1M in net income, and -$57.4M in free cash flow against $146.4M in total assets and $74.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.63 (-4.99%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (20/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LVWR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (20/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY LVWR SCORES 20/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+5/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 0% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+5/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$1.68-7.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$1.55+8.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$1.68-60.7% Next Q

Current

Grade E$0.66-11.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (28) → E (20)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LVWR Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While LVWR currently carries a cautious 20/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.41) and Max Pain ($0.69) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.79.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LVWR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “LVWR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 20%NO 80%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

LVWR Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (LVWR)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on LVWR. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LVWR)

✓Walkthrough of LVWR's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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LVWR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -60.48%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $1.60H $1.60L $0.66C $0.66VOL 2.53M

RES: $1.88SUP: $-0.57SMA50: $1.41SMA200: $1.54

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LVWR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LVWR Butterfly Map → + Track LVWR →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -3.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LVWR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LVWR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LVWR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LVWR)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #990 of 1011 ⚔️ FOXF vs LVWR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (LVWR vs. FOXF, HOG, INEO, LKQ)

Industry: Motor Vehicles (8 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) ranks #990 by composite RQD confidence (20/100, grade E) and #705 by equity capitalization ($184.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LKQ leads on earnings valuation at 7.5x trailing P/E, while HOG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.0% ROIC and 23.9% gross margin. HOG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with LVWR at 20/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
LVWR ACTIVE LiveWire Group Inc.	E	20/100	—	-17.3%	-35.0%	-26.67%	$184.9M	Benchmark Subject
FOXF Fox Factory Holding Corp.	D-	39/100	—	30.2%	-35.0%	-2.08%	$686.4M	/foxf-vs-lvwr →
HOG Harley-Davidson Inc.	B	75/100	9.3x	23.9%	18.0%	+2.93%	$3.16B	/hog-vs-lvwr →
INEO INNEOVA Holdings Limited (Class A)	D	44/100	—	19.2%	-1.0%	-7.00%	$9.2M	/ineo-vs-lvwr →
LKQ LKQ Corporation	D+	56/100	7.5x	38.6%	8.5%	+2.54%	$4.58B	/lkq-vs-lvwr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001898795

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) reported GAAP revenue of $25.7M (-3.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $26.6M , and -32.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$75.1M, operating cash flow of -$53.5M, and free cash flow of -$57.4M (+43.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, LVWR closed FY2025 with $146.4M in total assets against $74.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$25.7M	-$75.1M	-$53.5M	-$57.4M	$146.4M	$74.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$26.6M	-$93.9M	-$93.9M	-$101.9M	$148.0M	$0
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$38.0M	-$109.5M	-$83.5M	-$83.5M	—	—

3. LVWR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LVWR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does LVWR compare to FOXF and HOG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LVWR?

Where is LVWR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LVWR last traded at $0.66 (-26.67% on volume of 660,103 shares), positioning the stock -53.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.41) and -57.14% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.54). Across its 52-week range of $0.65 to $5.51, LVWR sits at the 0.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.74).

LVWR Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are LVWR insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies LVWR leadership and institutional positioning as: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING.

Direct Sub-Reports: LVWR RQD Cockpit LVWR 12M Forecast LVWR Earnings & Move LVWR Dividends & DRIP LVWR Insiders & 13F LVWR Whale Options LVWR Profit Sankey LVWR News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 20/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

LVWR — LiveWire Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:41:40Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, LVWR carries an RQD Score of 20 with a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 5 / 20. Reported ROIC is -35% and FCF yield is 0%. For a prospective investor, this means the business is not currently generating returns on capital or free cash flow that would support valuation on cash-flow grounds.
Whale 13F Flow: 3 / 20. The pillar reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning. Per the source, it scores weakly, so institutional flow offers little support to the thesis.
Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. The pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The weak score indicates insider and disclosed-trader activity is not a source of confidence.
Macro Regime Fit: 4 / 20. Beta is 1.0 and the pillar cites sector sensitivity. The stock's exposure to market and sector moves is not offset by a favorable regime read in the source.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 5 / 20. Altman Z is 0.2, Piotroski F is 3/9, and Debt/Equity is 1.61. These metrics point to elevated distress and balance-sheet risk.

Investor implications: upside drivers within the source data are limited to a depressed share price (price 0.9, down -43.74%) that could in principle reverse; however, the forensic and cash-engine pillars make valuation hard to anchor, and the negative margins (operating -60%, net -60%, gross -17.3%) mean a recovery case is not evidenced in the data. The rating is an analytical assessment, not personalized advice.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$25.7M	$-75.5M	$-75.1M	N/A	$-57.4M	$82.8M	$74.2M
FY 2024	$26.6M	$-110.4M	$-93.9M	N/A	$-101.9M	$64.4M	$0.0M
FY 2023	$38.0M	$-116.0M	$-109.5M	N/A	$-83.5M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue fell from $38.0M (FY 2023) to $25.7M (FY 2025) while operating losses persisted in every reported period. Per the Market Data section, operating margin is -60% and net margin is -60%. ROIC is -35%, per the Roarable RQD rating and market data. Altman Z-Score is 0.2 and Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, per the Roarable RQD forensic pillar. Debt/Equity is 1.61 per the same pillar, and FY 2025 cash of $82.8M exceeds reported debt of $74.2M per the SEC financials.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the Recent News & Catalysts feed:

RISK WATCH (RED): A Seeking Alpha report headlined that the company "warns that it may not survive," published 1h before the data timestamp.
RISK WATCH (RED): A Simply Wall St report tied the stock decline to Q3 earnings and restructuring fears.
MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): Items from Stock Titan, Moomoo, kalkine.ca, and MarketBeat cover market action, including a report that the stock broke below its 200-day moving average and a report describing the stock as under pressure before third-quarter earnings.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, sector is Consumer Discretionary, industry is Motor Vehicles, supply chain is NONE, butterfly links are empty, and proprietary signals are empty.

Open Questions

What is the company's cash runway given FY 2025 FCF of $-57.4M against cash of $82.8M, and what does the "may not survive" warning rest on?
What are the specific terms, timing, and scope of the restructuring referenced in the news feed?
What are the drivers behind the revenue decline from $38.0M (FY 2023) to $25.7M (FY 2025)?
Why are P/E, EPS, and EV/EBITDA unavailable, and what valuation basis applies given negative earnings?
What is the composition and maturity of the $74.2M debt balance?

LVWR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LVWR Debate Forum (3) ↓

🔴 RISK WATCH Seeking Alpha • 8h ago

Electric motorcycle maker LiveWire warns that it may not survive (LVWR:NYSE)

Seeking Alpha report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 11h ago

LiveWire Group (LVWR) Stock Price, News & Analysis

Stock Titan report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Moomoo • 14h ago

LiveWire Group(LVWR) Stock Options Chain | Quotes & News

Moomoo report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE kalkine.ca • 17h ago

Why Are Shares of LiveWire Group (NYSE:LVWR), a Penny Stock, Under Pressure Before Third-Quarter Earnings?

kalkine.ca report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 20h ago

LiveWire Group (NYSE:LVWR) Stock Price Breaks Below 200-Day Moving Average - Here's What Happened

MarketBeat report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Simply Wall St • 23h ago

LiveWire Group (LVWR) Stock Sinks As Q3 Earnings Deepen Restructuring Fears

Simply Wall St report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Kalkine Media • 1d ago

Can LiveWire Group (NYSE:LVWR) Overcome Its Financial Challenges?

Kalkine Media report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

LiveWire Group (NYSE:LVWR) Shares Climb 1.6% - Time to Buy?

MarketBeat report covering LiveWire Group Inc. (LVWR) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LVWR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.66?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LVWR 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.79 (-12.2%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is LVWR (E • RQD 20/100) a Buy at $0.90?

Welcome to the LVWR (LiveWire Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 20/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Motor Vehicles. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.70 (-22.2%)

Spot @ $0.90

Pump the brakes on LVWR — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on LVWR, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with -17.3% gross margins. Unless LiveWire Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.08 (+20.0%)

Spot @ $0.90

LVWR cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on LVWR, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Motor Vehicles and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $0.90 (52-wk range $0.65 - $5.51), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.