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Grand Canyon Education Inc. (LOPE) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±6.1% Move

$149.65 +1.20% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $149.69

Grand Canyon Education Inc. (LOPE) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.85B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LOPE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Grand Canyon Education Inc. (NASDAQ: LOPE) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $149.65 (+1.20% 1D, market cap $3.85B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, LOPE ranks #16 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LOPE compare to CVSA and LRN in the Real Estate sector?
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Within the Real Estate sector (Other Consumer Services), LOPE carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 33.1%. By comparison, CVSA (Covista Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 18.4x, ROIC 14.8%, cap $4.13B) and LRN (Stride Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 19.4%, cap $3.29B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LRN leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while LOPE leads on capital efficiency (33.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LOPE?
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Per LOPE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001434588), Grand Canyon Education Inc. generated $1.11B in revenue (+7.1% YoY), $216.2K in net income, and $273.5M in free cash flow against $992.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $149.69 (+0.03%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 24.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510062
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C-
Cash (18)Whales (5)SEC (13)Macro (11)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target
$198 Bull$152 Base$119 Bear
📬 FREE LOPE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LOPE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LOPE SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 24.7% FCF Margin ($273.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
70
Grade B$160.28+1.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
67
Grade B-$162.11-0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$160.71-6.9% Next Q
Current
62
Grade C$149.65+0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B (70) → C (62)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the LOPE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, LOPE faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($153.84) or 200D SMA ($157.32) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($152.34) toward Bear Floor ($118.83).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LOPE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LOPE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±6.1% Swing Band

±$9.13 Expected Swing
$140.52 (-6.1%)Spot $149.65$158.78 (+6.1%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

LOPE Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 62/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 7.1%

Model Bullish Setup (62/100)Model Risk Weight (38/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$1.11B$216.2K$273.5M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$1.03B$226.2K$290.0M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$960.9M$205.0K$243.7M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating LOPE & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on LOPE
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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LOPE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.02%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $154.2H $154.2L $147.9C $149.7VOL 268.1K
RES: $168.6SUP: $148.5SMA50: $153.8SMA200: $157.3
$182.5$169.5$156.4$143.3$130.2RES $168.6SUP $148.5$149.72026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LOPE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LOPE Butterfly Map → + Track LOPE →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
11.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LOPE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LOPE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LOPE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LOPE)

Real Estate Rank #16 of 51 ⚔️ CVSA vs LOPE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Real Estate Peer Comparison (LOPE vs. CVSA, LRN, LAUR, GHC)

Industry: Other Consumer Services (73 Tracked Issuers)

Across 51 tracked Real Estate securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Grand Canyon Education Inc. (LOPE) ranks #16 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #9 by equity capitalization ($3.85B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LRN leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while LOPE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.1% ROIC and — gross margin. CVSA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with LOPE at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
LOPE ACTIVE
Grand Canyon Education Inc.
C 62/100 — — 33.1% +1.20% $3.85B Benchmark Subject
CVSA
Covista Inc.
B 74/100 18.4x 56.9% 14.8% -0.24% $4.13B /cvsa-vs-lope →
LRN
Stride Inc.
B 73/100 11.8x 39.2% 19.4% -3.38% $3.29B /lrn-vs-lope →
LAUR
Laureate Education Inc.
B- 70/100 17.6x 28.3% 30.6% +4.79% $4.51B /laur-vs-lope →
GHC
Graham Holdings Company
C 63/100 16.8x — 3.5% +2.94% $4.87B /ghc-vs-lope →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001434588 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Grand Canyon Education Inc. (LOPE) reported GAAP revenue of $1.11B (+7.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.03B , and +15.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $216.2K, operating cash flow of $273.5M, and free cash flow of $273.5M (-5.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, LOPE closed FY2025 with $992.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 15.97, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.11B $216.2K $273.5M $273.5M $992.3M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.03B $226.2K $290.0M $290.0M $1.02B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $960.9M $205.0K $243.7M $243.7M — —

3. LOPE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LOPE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Grand Canyon Education Inc. (NASDAQ: LOPE) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $149.65 (+1.20% 1D, market cap $3.85B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 51 tracked Real Estate issuers, LOPE ranks #16 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LOPE compare to CVSA and LRN in the Real Estate sector?

Within the Real Estate sector (Other Consumer Services), LOPE carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 33.1%. By comparison, CVSA (Covista Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 18.4x, ROIC 14.8%, cap $4.13B) and LRN (Stride Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 11.8x, ROIC 19.4%, cap $3.29B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LRN leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while LOPE leads on capital efficiency (33.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LOPE?

Per LOPE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001434588), Grand Canyon Education Inc. generated $1.11B in revenue (+7.1% YoY), $216.2K in net income, and $273.5M in free cash flow against $992.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LOPE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LOPE last traded at $149.65 (+1.20% on volume of 424,361 shares), positioning the stock -2.72% below its 50-day simple moving average ($153.84) and -4.88% below its 200-day simple moving average ($157.32). Across its 52-week range of $134.27 to $188.83, LOPE sits at the 28.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.1% ($140.52 to $158.78).

Direct Sub-Reports: LOPE RQD Cockpit LOPE 12M Forecast LOPE Earnings & Move LOPE Dividends & DRIP LOPE Insiders & 13F LOPE Whale Options LOPE Profit Sankey LOPE News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 62/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

LOPE — Grand Canyon Education Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Grand Canyon Education Inc. (LOPE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 62/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $149.65 (+1.20% 1D, market capitalization $3.85B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 33.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 24.0%, and free cash flow yield of 6.81%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (5/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 15.97, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Grand Canyon Education Inc. (LOPE) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Real Estate sector and the Other Consumer Services industry. The profile does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model. Its market capitalization is $4.0B per the market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Grand Canyon Education Inc. (LOPE) reported $1.11B in annual revenue (up from $1.03B in FY2024, +7.1% YoY) and $216.2K in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($960.9M revenue, $205.0K net income) through FY2025, LOPE scaled operating cash flow to $273.5M and free cash flow to $273.5M, backed by $992.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 62/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 18/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 5/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $134.27 – $188.83 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh current valuation and 14.7x EV/EBITDA against 24.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are — The sector is listed as Real Estate and the industry as Other Consumer Services, but the graph does not map any inter-company or inter-sector transmission paths for LOPE.

  • Key Question #1: Can LOPE sustain or expand its 24.0% operating margin and 33.1% ROIC against Other Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.11B and free cash flow of $273.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is LOPE's equity valuation to Real Estate capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

LOPE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Grand Canyon Education Inc. (LOPE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LOPE Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LOPE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $149.65?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LOPE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on LOPE:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $183.37 (+24.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, the fundamental cash engine scores 18 of 20 with ROIC of 33.1% and FCF yield of 6.81%, indicating strong capital ef

Here is why I am bullish on LOPE here at $147.88: Per the RQD rating, the fundamental cash engine scores 18 of 20 with ROIC of 33.1% and FCF yield of 6.81%, indicating strong capital efficiency and cash generation.. Compare LOPE's 24.0% operating margin and 33.1% ROIC against the rest of Other Consumer Services. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $140.49 are getting bought.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Other Consumer Services. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $119.78 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $147.88

Whale 13F flow is the weakest pillar at 12 of 20, and cash fell from $324.6M in FY 2024 to $111.8M in FY 2025 with no debt figures repo

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short LOPE above $147.88. Whale 13F flow is the weakest pillar at 12 of 20, and cash fell from $324.6M in FY 2024 to $111.8M in FY 2025 with no debt figures reported.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (18/20) and FCF yield (6.81%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $208.89.

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