Stock Ratings / Communication Services / LITE / financials

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Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$840.70 -8.57% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $826.13

Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $83.29B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on LITE Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LITE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: LITE) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $840.70 (-8.57% 1D, market cap $83.29B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, LITE ranks #17 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LITE compare to AMX and T in the Communication Services sector?

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Within the Communication Services sector (Telecommunications Equipment), LITE carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 41.7%, and ROIC of 6.2%. By comparison, AMX (America Movil S.A.B. de C.V. American) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $72.63B) and T (AT&T Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 6.4x, ROIC 6.7%, cap $140.93B). Among the 5-stock peer group, T leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while TMUS leads on capital efficiency (10.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LITE?

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Per LITE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-06-27, CIK 0001633978), Lumentum Holdings Inc. generated $3.01B in revenue (+83.2% YoY), -$6.94B in net income, and $300.1M in free cash flow against $4.81B in total assets and $47.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $826.16 (-1.73%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 10% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LITE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY LITE SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 10% FCF Margin ($300.1M FCF) & 41.7% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$987.99-16.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$822.51+5.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$866.18-2.9% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$840.70+1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (74) → C+ (66)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the LITE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, LITE faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 39.2% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($925.75) or 200D SMA ($807.03) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($870.97) toward Bear Floor ($679.36).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LITE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “LITE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 26, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How LITE Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$300.1M (10% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $1.77B

FY24

Rev $1.65B

FY25

Rev $3.01B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$3.01B	41.7%	17.4%	-$6.94B	$300.1M	95%
FY 2024	$1.65B	28%	-10.9%	$25.9M	-$104.7M	-4.8%
FY 2023	$1.77B	41.7%	-6.5%	-$131.6M	$100.3M	-0.3%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LITE)

✓Walkthrough of LITE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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LITE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.88%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $914.0H $919.5L $840.7C $840.7VOL 7.50M

RES: $1,207.1SUP: $728.1SMA50: $925.8SMA200: $807.0

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LITE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LITE Butterfly Map → + Track LITE →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

27.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +83.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LITE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LITE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LITE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LITE)

Communication Services Rank #17 of 132 ⚔️ AMX vs LITE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Communication Services Peer Comparison (LITE vs. AMX, T, TMUS, VZ)

Industry: Telecommunications Equipment (81 Tracked Issuers)

Across 132 tracked Communication Services securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) ranks #17 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #10 by equity capitalization ($83.29B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, T leads on earnings valuation at 6.4x trailing P/E, while TMUS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.7% ROIC and — gross margin. LITE currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
LITE ACTIVE Lumentum Holdings Inc.	C+	66/100	—	41.7%	6.2%	-8.57%	$83.29B	Benchmark Subject
AMX America Movil S.A.B. de C.V. American	C-	60/100	32.8x	—	9.9%	+1.45%	$72.63B	/amx-vs-lite →
T AT&T Inc.	D+	55/100	6.4x	—	6.7%	+2.34%	$140.93B	/t-vs-lite →
TMUS T-Mobile US Inc.	D+	53/100	14.2x	—	10.7%	+6.21%	$156.02B	/tmus-vs-lite →
VZ Verizon Communications Inc.	D+	57/100	10.3x	—	8.5%	+2.45%	$181.40B	/vz-vs-lite →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-06-27 • CIK 0001633978

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-06-27), Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) reported GAAP revenue of $3.01B (+83.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.65B , and +70.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$6.94B, operating cash flow of $751.4M, and free cash flow of $300.1M (+386.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, LITE closed FY2025 with $4.81B in total assets against $47.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 13.01, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-06-27	$3.01B	-$6.94B	$751.4M	$300.1M	$4.81B	$47.1M
FY2024 (FY)	2025-06-28	$1.65B	$25.9M	$126.3M	-$104.7M	$3.97B	$2.56B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-07-01	$1.77B	-$131.6M	$179.8M	$100.3M	$45.81B	$10.72B

3. LITE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LITE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does LITE compare to AMX and T in the Communication Services sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LITE?

Where is LITE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LITE last traded at $840.70 (-8.57% on volume of 7,733,798 shares), positioning the stock -9.19% below its 50-day simple moving average ($925.75) and +4.17% above its 200-day simple moving average ($807.03). Across its 52-week range of $184.20 to $1,143.00, LITE sits at the 68.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($735.61 to $945.79).

LITE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), LITE converted $3.0B of revenue into a 41.7% gross margin, 17.4% operating margin, and $300.1M in free cash flow (10% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: LITE RQD Cockpit LITE 12M Forecast LITE Earnings & Move LITE Dividends & DRIP LITE Insiders & 13F LITE Whale Options LITE Profit Sankey LITE News & Why

Sector Peer Dials

Compare →

AMX C-

America Movil S.A.B. de C.V. American

Verizon Communications Inc.

57 /100

CHT C

Chunghwa Telecom Co. Ltd.

LITE Core Snapshot

Market Cap $83.29B

Trailing / Fwd P/E — / 36.0x

Gross Profit Margin 41.7%

Return on Capital (ROIC) 6.2%

Free Cash Flow Yield 0.36%

12M Base Price Target $870.97

FREE TRADER TOOLS

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Drop 3–5 tickers into our live Portfolio X-Ray to spot hidden accounting time-bombs and see your composite RQD dial.

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LITE Wire

Why It Moved →

Direct Company Event Yahoo Finance • 6h ago

Learn Why The Bull Case For Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Could Change Following Production Bottlenecks

Peer / Ecosystem Wire Trefis • 9h ago

How Risky Is Lumentum Stock?

Peer / Ecosystem Wire Reuters • 12h ago

Marvell to buy Lumentum in $115 billion deal in AI data-center bet

Direct Company Event Barchart.com • 15h ago

Lumentum Jumped on Reports Marvell Is in Late-Stage Talks to Acquire the Company. LITE Stock Is a Buy No Matter What.

Peer / Ecosystem Wire Investing.com • 18h ago

Why is Lumentum stock surging today?

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 66/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

LITE — Lumentum Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:10:12Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, LITE scores 66 out of 100 with a letter grade of C+ and a verdict of "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 (ROIC 6.2%; FCF yield 0.36%); Whale 13F Flow at 15/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 9/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 14/20 (Beta 1.08; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14/20 (Altman Z 13.01; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.06).

For a prospective investor, the profile is mixed. The strongest pillar is institutional flow, while insider conviction is the weakest, which suggests insiders are not visibly adding exposure. The cash engine score is held back by a very low FCF yield, meaning the price paid relative to free cash generated is high. The balance sheet pillar is comparatively supportive, reflecting low leverage and a strong Altman Z reading. The verdict's "Watch for Breakout" language signals the rating framework sees potential for a change in stance but does not currently justify an upgrade. Upside drivers would be sustained growth in FCF and improving returns on capital; valuation tradeoffs are evident in the elevated forward P/E and EV/EBITDA relative to the reported cash generation.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$3014.0M	$524.8M	$-6935.1M	N/A	$300.1M	$657.7M	$47.1M
FY 2024	$1645.0M	$-180.1M	$25.9M	N/A	$-104.7M	$479.7M	$2561.2M
FY 2023	$1767.0M	$-115.7M	$-131.6M	N/A	$100.3M	N/A	$10719.9M

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $1645.0M in FY 2024 to $3014.0M in FY 2025, and operating income moved from $-180.1M to $524.8M. FY 2025 net income is $-6935.1M, a figure far below operating income, and the source does not explain the gap. Net margin is listed at -60% in the market data. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 13.01 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, and debt-to-equity is 0.06. ROIC is 6.2%.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news section, the headlines include: a GREEN-flagged catalyst piece referencing production bottlenecks; a RED-flagged "RISK WATCH" item questioning the stock's risk profile; a YELLOW market-wire report of a reported $115 billion acquisition deal involving Marvell in an AI data-center context; a GREEN catalyst report describing late-stage acquisition talks; and YELLOW market-wire items on the day's surge and long-term investment case. The acquisition reports are the dominant theme, and their status is unverified in the source. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, there are no supply-chain links or proprietary signals recorded.

Open Questions

What explains the gap between FY 2025 operating income of $524.8M and net income of $-6935.1M?
What is the status of the reported Marvell acquisition talks, and are the terms verified?
What products and customers drive the reported $3014.0M in FY 2025 revenue?
Why is the trailing P/E unavailable while EPS is -76.56, and what is the sustainable earnings base?
What is the source and timing of the FY 2023 cash and FY 2024 financing structure that drove debt from $10719.9M down to $2561.2M?

LITE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to LITE Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 6h ago

Learn Why The Bull Case For Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Could Change Following Production Bottlenecks

Yahoo Finance report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Trefis • 9h ago

How Risky Is Lumentum Stock?

Trefis report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Reuters • 12h ago

Marvell to buy Lumentum in $115 billion deal in AI data-center bet

Reuters report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Barchart.com • 15h ago

Lumentum Jumped on Reports Marvell Is in Late-Stage Talks to Acquire the Company. LITE Stock Is a Buy No Matter What.

Barchart.com report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 18h ago

Why is Lumentum stock surging today?

Investing.com report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 21h ago

The Long-Term Investment Case for Lumentum (LITE)

Yahoo Finance report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Lumentum Holdings (LITE) Is Reportedly In Advanced Acquisition Talks

Yahoo Finance report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Marvell to purchase Lumentum for $115 billion in record-breaking tech deal

Yahoo Finance report covering Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

LITE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $840.70?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON LITE 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $993.09 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is LITE (C+ • RQD 66/100) a Buy at $919.53?

Welcome to the LITE (Lumentum Holdings Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 66/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Telecommunications Equipment. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $698.84 (-24.0%)

Spot @ $919.53

Pump the brakes on LITE — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on LITE, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 41.7% gross margins. Unless Lumentum Holdings Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1,121.83 (+22.0%)

Spot @ $919.53

LITE cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on LITE, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Telecommunications Equipment and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $919.53 (52-wk range $184.20 - $1143.00), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.