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Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$0.66 -24.76% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.63

Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 29/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $15.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is KPTI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: KPTI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $0.66 (-24.76% 1D, market cap $15.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, KPTI ranks #846 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does KPTI compare to NCEL and RADX in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), KPTI carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, NCEL (NewcelX Ltd.) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $14.7M) and RADX (Radiopharm Theranostics Limited) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $15.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, KPTI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while KPTI leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KPTI?
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Per KPTI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001503802), Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. generated $146.1M in revenue (+0.6% YoY), -$196.0M in net income, and -$75.4M in free cash flow against $108.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.63 (-4.65%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (29/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510029
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (9)Whales (3)SEC (8)Macro (6)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.6% Base Target
$12 Bull$1 Base$0 Bear
📬 FREE KPTI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KPTI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (29/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY KPTI SCORES 29/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+9/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
21
Grade E$0.43-16.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
24
Grade E$0.36+33.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
26
Grade E$0.48+37.5% Next Q
Current
29
Grade E$0.66-9.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (21) → E (29)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a KPTI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While KPTI currently carries a cautious 29/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.18) and Max Pain ($0.69) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $11.54.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KPTI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “KPTI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 29%NO 71%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your KPTI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $0.66: 15151.5 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $0.44
$6,667
$-3,333 (-33.3%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $0.57
$8,636
$-1,364 (-13.6%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $11.54
$174,848
+$164,848 (+1648.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$174%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1169%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$158%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring KPTI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of KPTI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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KPTI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -92.90%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $0.88H $0.88L $0.66C $0.66VOL 3.52M
RES: $0.91SUP: $-0.15SMA50: $1.18SMA200: $5.98
$11.60$8.54$5.48$2.42$-0.64RES $0.91SUP $-0.15$0.662026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

KPTI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 KPTI Butterfly Map → + Track KPTI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KPTI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KPTI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KPTI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KPTI)

Health Care Rank #846 of 1015 ⚔️ NCEL vs KPTI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (KPTI vs. NCEL, RADX, CTXR, AEON)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI) ranks #846 by composite RQD confidence (29/100, grade E) and #855 by equity capitalization ($15.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KPTI leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while KPTI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. RADX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with KPTI at 29/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
KPTI ACTIVE
Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -24.76% $15.0M Benchmark Subject
NCEL
NewcelX Ltd.
E 28/100 — — -35.0% -5.27% $14.7M /ncel-vs-kpti →
RADX
Radiopharm Theranostics Limited
D 46/100 — — — -3.26% $15.6M /radx-vs-kpti →
CTXR
Citius Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D- 40/100 — — -35.0% -7.10% $14.4M /ctxr-vs-kpti →
AEON
AEON Biopharma Inc. (Class A)
D 46/100 — — -35.0% -6.80% $16.2M /aeon-vs-kpti →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001503802 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI) reported GAAP revenue of $146.1M (+0.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $145.2M , and +0.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$196.0M, operating cash flow of -$75.4M, and free cash flow of -$75.4M (+40.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, KPTI closed FY2025 with $108.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $146.1M -$196.0M -$75.4M -$75.4M $108.4M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $145.2M -$76.4M -$127.5M -$127.6M $164.4M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $146.0M -$143.1M -$92.7M -$92.7M — —

3. KPTI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is KPTI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: KPTI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 29/100 at a spot price of $0.66 (-24.76% 1D, market cap $15.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, KPTI ranks #846 in composite RQD confidence.

How does KPTI compare to NCEL and RADX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), KPTI carries a Roarable E (29/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, NCEL (NewcelX Ltd.) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $14.7M) and RADX (Radiopharm Theranostics Limited) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $15.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, KPTI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while KPTI leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KPTI?

Per KPTI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001503802), Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. generated $146.1M in revenue (+0.6% YoY), -$196.0M in net income, and -$75.4M in free cash flow against $108.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is KPTI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

KPTI last traded at $0.66 (-24.76% on volume of 3,523,445 shares), positioning the stock -44.07% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.18) and -88.96% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.98). Across its 52-week range of $0.31 to $10.99, KPTI sits at the 3.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.74).

Direct Sub-Reports: KPTI RQD Cockpit KPTI 12M Forecast KPTI Earnings & Move KPTI Dividends & DRIP KPTI Insiders & 13F KPTI Whale Options KPTI Profit Sankey KPTI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 29/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

KPTI — Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 29/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $0.66 (-24.76% 1D, market capitalization $15.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (9/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The FY 2025 SEC financials report revenue of $146.1M, indicating ongoing commercial or collaboration revenue, but the source does not identify its source.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI) reported $146.1M in annual revenue (up from $145.2M in FY2024, +0.6% YoY) and -$196.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($146.0M revenue, -$143.1M net income) through FY2025, KPTI scaled operating cash flow to -$75.4M and free cash flow to -$75.4M, backed by $108.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 29/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 9/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.31 – $10.99 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore identifies no upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations beyond the broad Health Care classification. A prospective investor should watch for any second-order effects of the planned Ayrmid merger on financing and cash runway, given the reported FY 2025 free cash flow of -$75.4M. Because beta is 1.0, the source does not indicate how the stock would respond to sector-wide moves beyond that market-sensitivity figure.

  • Key Question #1: Can KPTI sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $146.1M and free cash flow of -$75.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is KPTI's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

KPTI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Karyopharm Therapeutics Inc. (KPTI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to KPTI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

KPTI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.66?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON KPTI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on KPTI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $0.82 (+24.2%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The stock trades at $0.88 after a 52-week range of $0.31 to $10.99 and reported a 5.73% gain, with $60.5M in cash against a $20.0M mark

Here is why I am bullish on KPTI here at $0.66: The stock trades at $0.88 after a 52-week range of $0.31 to $10.99 and reported a 5.73% gain, with $60.5M in cash against a $20.0M market cap.. Compare KPTI's -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $0.63 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@DeltaGamma_99 Agree on the RQD 29/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $0.66 and keeping dry powder in case we test $0.61.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.55 (-16.7%)
Spot @ $0.66

Operating margin is -60%, ROIC is -35%, FCF yield is 0%, and FY 2025 net loss of -$196.0M sits against a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and a

Operating margin is -60%, ROIC is -35%, FCF yield is 0%, and FY 2025 net loss of -$196.0M sits against a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 and an RQD score of 31 (E).. Look at the math on KPTI: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -35.0% ROIC and -60.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $0.58 before getting long.

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