JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

The Roarable RQD rating is 39 / D-, labeled "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow," per the Roarable RQD rating. Across its five pillars, the fundamental cash engine scores 4 / 20 (ROIC 5.7%; FCF yield -0.29%), indicating the weakest contribution to the overall score. Whale 13F flow scores 15 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), the strongest pillar. Insider conviction scores 6 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow). Macro regime fit scores 7 / 20 (beta 1.0; sector sensitivity). Forensic balance sheet scores 7 / 20 (Altman Z 1.72; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the upside case rests mainly on institutional positioning, as reflected in the 15 / 20 whale flow pillar. The valuation tradeoff is that the cash engine is weak: a -0.29% FCF yield and 5.7% ROIC offer little internal cash support for the price, while the EV/EBITDA of 14.3 per the market data section implies the market is paying a meaningful multiple for earnings that the FCF figures do not confirm. The forensic pillar's Altman Z of 1.72 and Piotroski F of 4/9 point to balance sheet and flow fragility, which the RQD model treats as a material risk. These facts describe the rating's composition only and are not personalized financial advice.

JAKKS Pacific Inc. (JAKK) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Recreational Games/Products/Toys industry, per the profile section. The profile does not describe its specific products, customers, or revenue model. Per the market data section, the company reports a gross margin of 96%, an operating margin of 12.6%, and a net margin of 68%. Not available in source data for detailed product lines, distribution channels, or customer concentration.

Per the SEC financials, revenue fell from $711.6M in FY 2023 to $113.3M in FY 2025, while FCF turned negative to $-1.1M in FY 2025. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 1.72, the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5, and ROIC is 5.7% per the market data section. The reported net income figures are inconsistent with the revenue and operating income figures in the same table and should be treated with caution; the balance sheet posture is weak based on the RQD forensic pillar.

Per the recent news and catalysts section, six headlines are tagged YELLOW under MARKET WIRE. They include a Yahoo Finance piece on whether value investors should buy the stock, a report that the stock climbed as Q3 earnings sharpened margin focus, a MarketBeat report that the price broke above its 200-day moving average, a Stock Titan report of a CFO surrendering 11,306 shares for tax withholding, a Quiver Quantitative release of Q3 2026 earnings, and a Yahoo Finance report that Q3 earnings and revenues surpassed estimates. Per the same section, these items are market-wire summaries and do not state specific fundamental results beyond their headlines. Risk watch items include the CFO share surrender and the sharp year-over-year revenue decline shown in the financials. The butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply chain and no proprietary signals.

• What is the reconciliation between the reported net income figures and the much smaller revenue and operating income figures in the financials section?
• What drove the decline in revenue from $711.6M in FY 2023 to $113.3M in FY 2025, and is it structural or timing-related?
• What are the company's debt levels, given that debt is listed as N/A across all periods?
• What explains the negative FCF in FY 2025 and the -0.29% FCF yield relative to the 14.3 EV/EBITDA?
• Why are EPS and P/E figures absent from the source data, and what is the current earnings base?