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Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$78.62 -2.75% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $78.08

Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.59B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is IRON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Disc Medicine Inc. (NASDAQ: IRON) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $78.62 (-2.75% 1D, market cap $3.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, IRON ranks #216 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does IRON compare to AMLX and XENE in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), IRON carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -27.5%. By comparison, AMLX (Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.62B) and XENE (Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACAD leads on earnings multiple (9.1x) while OGN leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IRON?
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Per IRON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001816736), Disc Medicine Inc. generated $660.9M in revenue (+81.9% YoY), -$212.2M in net income, and -$181.3M in free cash flow against $806.9M in total assets and $30.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $78.08 (-0.69%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510054
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C-
Cash (8)Whales (16)SEC (14)Macro (10)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.8% Base Target
$104 Bull$77 Base$60 Bear
📬 FREE IRON RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for IRON)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (54/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY IRON SCORES 54/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (30% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 26.00 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 14 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
46
Grade D$55.74+36.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
49
Grade D$76.00+9.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$83.20-5.5% Next Q
Current
54
Grade D+$78.62-0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (46) → D+ (54)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a IRON Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While IRON currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($71.43) and Max Pain ($82.55) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $104.48.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $IRON• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “IRON Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 54%NO 46%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±10.7%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (IRON)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for IRON.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring IRON)

  • ✓Walkthrough of IRON's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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IRON // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.23%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $82.84H $82.84L $78.62C $78.62VOL 685.0K
RES: $85.12SUP: $51.21SMA50: $71.43SMA200: $70.84
$87.10$78.40$69.70$61.00$52.30RES $85.12SUP $51.21$78.622026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

IRON Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 IRON Butterfly Map → + Track IRON →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
13.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +81.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on IRON today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for IRON. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for IRON today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (IRON)

Health Care Rank #216 of 1015 ⚔️ AMLX vs IRON Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (IRON vs. AMLX, XENE, ACAD, OGN)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON) ranks #216 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #191 by equity capitalization ($3.59B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACAD leads on earnings valuation at 9.1x trailing P/E, while OGN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 24.9% ROIC and 53.3% gross margin. OGN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with IRON at 54/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
IRON ACTIVE
Disc Medicine Inc.
D+ 54/100 — — -27.5% -2.75% $3.59B Benchmark Subject
AMLX
Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D- 39/100 — — -35.0% -2.84% $3.62B /amlx-vs-iron →
XENE
Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D- 37/100 — — -35.0% +0.56% $3.62B /xene-vs-iron →
ACAD
ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D 49/100 9.1x 91.7% 7.9% -0.58% $3.55B /acad-vs-iron →
OGN
Organon & Co.
B- 70/100 19.4x 53.3% 24.9% -0.14% $3.63B /ogn-vs-iron →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001816736 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON) reported GAAP revenue of $660.9M (+81.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $363.2M , and +159.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$212.2M, operating cash flow of -$180.4M, and free cash flow of -$181.3M (-92.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, IRON closed FY2025 with $806.9M in total assets against $30.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 26.00, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $660.9M -$212.2M -$180.4M -$181.3M $806.9M $30.2M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $363.2M -$109.4M -$93.9M -$94.4M $496.8M $23.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $255.2M -$76.4M -$73.5M -$73.5M $2.02B $473.3M

3. IRON Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is IRON stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Disc Medicine Inc. (NASDAQ: IRON) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $78.62 (-2.75% 1D, market cap $3.59B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, IRON ranks #216 in composite RQD confidence.

How does IRON compare to AMLX and XENE in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), IRON carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -27.5%. By comparison, AMLX (Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.62B) and XENE (Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $3.62B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACAD leads on earnings multiple (9.1x) while OGN leads on capital efficiency (24.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for IRON?

Per IRON's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001816736), Disc Medicine Inc. generated $660.9M in revenue (+81.9% YoY), -$212.2M in net income, and -$181.3M in free cash flow against $806.9M in total assets and $30.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is IRON trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

IRON last traded at $78.62 (-2.75% on volume of 525,393 shares), positioning the stock +10.07% above its 50-day simple moving average ($71.43) and +10.98% above its 200-day simple moving average ($70.84). Across its 52-week range of $40.00 to $99.50, IRON sits at the 64.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.7% ($70.21 to $87.03).

Direct Sub-Reports: IRON RQD Cockpit IRON 12M Forecast IRON Earnings & Move IRON Dividends & DRIP IRON Insiders & 13F IRON Whale Options IRON Profit Sankey IRON News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 54/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

IRON — Disc Medicine Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 54/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $78.62 (-2.75% 1D, market capitalization $3.59B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -27.5%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -22.9%, and free cash flow yield of -4.93%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (14/20): Incorporates a 0.90x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 26.00, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.04x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Disc Medicine Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, operating in the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. Reported revenue is — in each listed period, indicating no reported revenue in the source data. Market capitalization is $3.7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON) reported $660.9M in annual revenue (up from $363.2M in FY2024, +81.9% YoY) and -$212.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($255.2M revenue, -$76.4M net income) through FY2025, IRON scaled operating cash flow to -$180.4M and free cash flow to -$181.3M, backed by $806.9M in total assets against $30.2M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 54/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of -4.93% and institutional whale pillar of 16/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $40.00 – $99.50 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -22.9% operating margins and a 0.90x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), IRON carries a macro regime beta of 0.90 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can IRON sustain or expand its -22.9% operating margin and -27.5% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $660.9M and free cash flow of -$181.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $30.2M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is IRON's 20.0x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.90x)?

IRON Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Disc Medicine Inc. (IRON) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to IRON Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

IRON Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $78.62?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON IRON 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on IRON:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $106.71 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Low leverage (Debt/Equity 0.04) and a Z-Score of 26 give the balance sheet structural strength, with Phase 3 and FDA refiling catalysts

Long IRON at $80.84 targeting $106.71. Low leverage (Debt/Equity 0.04) and a Z-Score of 26 give the balance sheet structural strength, with Phase 3 and FDA refiling catalysts in the news wire.. Institutional whale score is 16/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $40.00 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Shorting a 16/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $80.84 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $61.44 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $80.84

ROIC of -27.5%, FCF yield of -4.93%, and FY 2025 free cash flow of -$181.3M show no current cash engine behind a forward P/E of 20.

Fading this rally in IRON at $80.84. ROIC of -27.5%, FCF yield of -4.93%, and FY 2025 free cash flow of -$181.3M show no current cash engine behind a forward P/E of 20.. With a beta of 0.9 and the stock sitting at $80.84 (52-wk range $40.00–$99.50), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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