Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HZO / forecast

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MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$52.76 +0.32% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $52.69

MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 51/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.16B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HZO Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HZO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, MarineMax Inc. (FL) (NYSE: HZO) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $52.76 (+0.32% 1D, market cap $1.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HZO ranks #543 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HZO compare to AAP and ONEW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Auto & Home Supply Stores), HZO carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 32.5%, and ROIC of 2.4%. By comparison, AAP (Advance Auto Parts Inc.) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E 62.8x, ROIC -1.4%, cap $2.76B) and ONEW (OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)) posts a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -11.2%, cap $159.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AZO leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while AZO leads on capital efficiency (55.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HZO?

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Per HZO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001057060), MarineMax Inc. (FL) generated $2.31B in revenue (-5.0% YoY), -$31.6M in net income, and $11.9M in free cash flow against $2.43B in total assets and $347.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $52.69 (-0.13%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 0.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HZO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (51/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HZO SCORES 51/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (29% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.5% FCF Margin ($11.9M FCF) & 32.5% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$52.33-0.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$52.01+0.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$52.45+0.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$52.76-1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (43) → D (51)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HZO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HZO currently carries a cautious 51/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($52.34) and Max Pain ($55.40) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $60.30.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HZO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HZO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 51%NO 49%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your HZO Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $52.76: 189.5 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $39.86

$7,555

$-2,445 (-24.5%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $51.10

$9,685

$-315 (-3.1%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $60.30

$11,429

+$1,429 (+14.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$53	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$57	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$45	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HZO)

✓Walkthrough of HZO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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HZO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +90.74%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $52.50H $52.76L $52.50C $52.76VOL 351.2K

RES: $52.73SUP: $51.95SMA50: $52.34SMA200: $37.47

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HZO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HZO Butterfly Map → + Track HZO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

13.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -5.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HZO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HZO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HZO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HZO)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #543 of 1011 ⚔️ AAP vs HZO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HZO vs. AAP, ONEW, PRTS, AZO)

Industry: Auto & Home Supply Stores (6 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) ranks #543 by composite RQD confidence (51/100, grade D) and #497 by equity capitalization ($1.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AZO leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while AZO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 55.8% ROIC and 52.6% gross margin. AZO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with HZO at 51/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HZO ACTIVE MarineMax Inc. (FL)	D	51/100	—	32.5%	2.4%	+0.32%	$1.16B	Benchmark Subject
AAP Advance Auto Parts Inc.	E	28/100	62.8x	43.4%	-1.4%	-1.36%	$2.76B	/aap-vs-hzo →
ONEW OneWater Marine Inc. (Class A)	E	31/100	—	22.8%	-11.2%	+0.63%	$159.7M	/onew-vs-hzo →
PRTS CarParts.com Inc.	E	33/100	—	32.8%	-35.0%	-19.95%	$69.5M	/prts-vs-hzo →
AZO AutoZone Inc.	C+	67/100	20.2x	52.6%	55.8%	+1.05%	$50.49B	/azo-vs-hzo →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001057060

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) reported GAAP revenue of $2.31B (-5.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.43B , and -3.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$31.6M, operating cash flow of $72.8M, and free cash flow of $11.9M (+113.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, HZO closed FY2025 with $2.43B in total assets against $347.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.98, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$2.31B	-$31.6M	$72.8M	$11.9M	$2.43B	$347.5M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$2.43B	$38.1M	-$25.7M	-$86.1M	$2.63B	$347.3M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$2.39B	$109.3M	-$222.2M	-$222.2M	—	—

3. HZO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HZO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does HZO compare to AAP and ONEW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HZO?

Where is HZO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HZO last traded at $52.76 (+0.32% on volume of 987,636 shares), positioning the stock +0.80% above its 50-day simple moving average ($52.34) and +40.81% above its 200-day simple moving average ($37.47). Across its 52-week range of $21.42 to $52.76, HZO sits at the 100.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 61.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($51.81 to $53.71).

HZO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is HZO's 12-month stock price target?

MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $51.1 (-3.1% from $52.76), with a bull-case target of $60.3 and a bear-case floor of $39.86.

Is HZO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates HZO D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 51/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: HZO RQD Cockpit HZO 12M Forecast HZO Earnings & Move HZO Dividends & DRIP HZO Insiders & 13F HZO Whale Options HZO Profit Sankey HZO News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 51/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

HZO — MarineMax Inc. (FL): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:30:27Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, HZO scores 51 out of 100, a D grade labeled "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 (ROIC 2.4%; FCF yield 1.03%); Whale 13F Flow at 15/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 5/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 10/20 (beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20 (Altman Z 1.98; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.37). For a prospective investor, the weakest pillar is insider conviction, and the cash-return pillars are thin: a 1.03% FCF yield and 2.4% ROIC leave little margin of safety at the current price. The whale-flow pillar is the strongest relative score, indicating some institutional interest, but the overall rating signals underperformance risk rather than an attractive entry point.

Business

MarineMax Inc. (FL) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Auto & Home Supply Stores industry, per the company profile. The source data does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model beyond this classification. Reported revenue of $2309.3M in FY 2025 is recorded in the SEC financials, but the source data does not state its sources of revenue or how it earns money.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$2309.3M	$34.0M	$-31.6M	N/A	$11.9M	$164.6M	$347.5M
FY 2024	$2431.0M	$128.2M	$38.1M	N/A	$-86.1M	$145.0M	$347.3M
FY 2023	$2394.7M	$200.8M	$109.3M	N/A	$-222.2M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue declined from $2431.0M in FY 2024 to $2309.3M in FY 2025, and the company moved from a net income of $38.1M to a net loss of $-31.6M. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the company's gross margin is 32.5%, operating margin 1.5%, and net margin -1.4%, with ROIC at 2.4%. The Altman Z-Score is 1.98 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, per the RQD forensic pillar, while Debt/Equity is 0.37. Cash of $164.6M against debt of $347.5M in FY 2025 reflects a leveraged-but-manageable balance sheet posture per the SEC financials.

Open Questions

What are the company's principal products, customers, and revenue drivers, since the source data gives only sector classification?
What explains the swing from positive FY 2023 and FY 2024 operating income to a sharp decline in FY 2025 operating income?
What are the trailing and forward EPS and P/E figures, which are absent from the source data?
What institutional holders and insider transactions underlie the whale and insider pillar scores?
What supply-chain dependencies or catalysts could affect revenue recovery, given that none are recorded in the source data?

HZO Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for MarineMax Inc. (FL) (HZO) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HZO Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 5d ago

MarineMax to Report Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2026 Financial Results on Wednesday, November 4, 2026

OLDSMAR, Fla., October 28, 2026--MarineMax, Inc. (NYSE: HZO) ("MarineMax" or the "Company"), a boat and yacht retailer, marina operator, and superyacht services company, plans to release its fourth quarter and full year

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 7d ago

Why CarMax Stock And US Consumer Shares Could Gain From A Fed Pause

Fed policy is back in the spotlight as investors weigh a likely pause in October against the risk of another hike while inflation sits at 3.7%. Rate sensitive, domestically focused consumer stocks feel that push and pull

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo • 17d ago

3 Profitable Stocks We’re Skeptical Of

Not all profitable companies are built to last - some rely on outdated models or unsustainable advantages. Just because a business is in the green today doesn’t mean it will thrive tomorrow.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 31d ago

1 Momentum Stock to Research Further and 2 We Turn Down

The stocks in this article are all trading near their 52-week highs. This strength often reflects positive developments such as new product launches, favorable industry trends, or improved financial performance.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 38d ago

3 Cash-Producing Stocks We Keep Off Our Radar

Generating cash is essential for any business, but not all cash-rich companies are great investments. Some produce plenty of cash but fail to allocate it effectively, leading to missed opportunities.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 52d ago

Automotive and Marine Retail Stocks Q2 Recap: Benchmarking MarineMax (NYSE:HZO)

As the Q2 earnings season comes to a close, it’s time to take stock of this quarter’s best and worst performers in the automotive and marine retail industry, including MarineMax (NYSE:HZO) and its peers.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 61d ago

1 Small-Cap Stock on Our Buy List and 2 We Ignore

Investors looking for hidden gems should keep an eye on small-cap stocks because they’re frequently overlooked by Wall Street. Many opportunities exist in this part of the market, but it is also a high-risk, high-reward

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 79d ago

MarineMax (HZO): Buy, Sell, or Hold Post Q2 Earnings?

The past six months have been a windfall for MarineMax’s shareholders. The company’s stock price has jumped 79.7%, hitting $52.16 per share. This run-up might have investors contemplating their next move.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HZO Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $52.76?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HZO 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $56.80 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is HZO (D • RQD 51/100) a Buy at $52.59?

Welcome to the HZO (MarineMax Inc. (FL)) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 51/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Auto & Home Supply Stores. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $39.44 (-25.0%)

Spot @ $52.59

Pump the brakes on HZO — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on HZO, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 32.5% gross margins. Unless MarineMax Inc. (FL) expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MA MacroHawk_NYC Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $64.69 (+23.0%)

Spot @ $52.59

HZO cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on HZO, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Auto & Home Supply Stores and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $52.59 (52-wk range $21.42 - $52.76), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.