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Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. (HWBK) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$39.34 +0.98% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.33

Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. (HWBK) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $284.9M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HWBK Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HWBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: HWBK) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $39.34 (+0.98% 1D, market cap $284.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HWBK ranks #178 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HWBK compare to LCNB and OVLY in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), HWBK carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.7%. By comparison, LCNB (LCNB Corporation) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 12.3x, ROIC 8.4%, cap $281.1M) and OVLY (Oak Valley Bancorp (CA)) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 9.4x, ROIC 14.8%, cap $289.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OVLY leads on earnings multiple (9.4x) while OVLY leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HWBK?
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Per HWBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000893847), Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. generated $795.8M in revenue (+3.8% YoY), $23.8M in net income, and $22.8M in free cash flow against $1.89B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.34 (-0.01%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 2.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510067
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C+
Cash (13)Whales (10)SEC (13)Macro (14)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4% Base Target
$48 Bull$41 Base$32 Bear
📬 FREE HWBK RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HWBK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HWBK SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+14/20 pts (21% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 88% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 51 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$37.96+2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
62
Grade C+$38.71+1.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
64
Grade C+$39.32+0.1% Next Q
Current
67
Grade C+$39.34+1.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HWBK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, HWBK faces multiple-compression risk if 12.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($38.79) or 200D SMA ($36.67) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($40.93) toward Bear Floor ($31.93).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HWBK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HWBK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your HWBK Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $39.34: 254.2 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $31.93
$8,116
$-1,884 (-18.8%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $40.93
$10,404
+$404 (+4.0%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $48.30
$12,278
+$2,278 (+22.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$4374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$4569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$3658%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (HWBK Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
HWBK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +15.84%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $39.70H $39.70L $38.96C $39.34VOL 10.6K
RES: $39.82SUP: $35.94SMA50: $38.79SMA200: $36.67
$41.18$38.79$36.40$34.01$31.62RES $39.82SUP $35.94$39.342026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HWBK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HWBK Butterfly Map → + Track HWBK →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HWBK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HWBK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HWBK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HWBK)

Financials Rank #178 of 1097 ⚔️ LCNB vs HWBK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HWBK vs. LCNB, OVLY, VABK, BPRN)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. (HWBK) ranks #178 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #821 by equity capitalization ($284.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OVLY leads on earnings valuation at 9.4x trailing P/E, while OVLY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.8% ROIC and — gross margin. VABK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with HWBK at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HWBK ACTIVE
Hawthorn Bancshares Inc.
C+ 67/100 12.2x — 13.7% +0.98% $284.9M Benchmark Subject
LCNB
LCNB Corporation
C 65/100 12.3x — 8.4% +1.42% $281.1M /lcnb-vs-hwbk →
OVLY
Oak Valley Bancorp (CA)
C+ 66/100 9.4x — 14.8% +1.22% $289.6M /ovly-vs-hwbk →
VABK
Virginia National Bankshares Corporation
B 72/100 14.4x — 10.5% +2.50% $279.5M /vabk-vs-hwbk →
BPRN
Princeton Bancorp Inc. (PA)
C 62/100 15.8x — 6.9% +2.26% $292.9M /bprn-vs-hwbk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000893847 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. (HWBK) reported GAAP revenue of $795.8M (+3.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $766.6M , and +1089.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $23.8M, operating cash flow of $26.9M, and free cash flow of $22.8M (+1.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, HWBK closed FY2025 with $1.89B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $795.8M $23.8M $26.9M $22.8M $1.89B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $766.6M $18.3M $25.6M $22.6M $1.83B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $66.9M $956.0K $17.6M $17.6M — —

3. HWBK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HWBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: HWBK) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $39.34 (+0.98% 1D, market cap $284.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HWBK ranks #178 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HWBK compare to LCNB and OVLY in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), HWBK carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.7%. By comparison, LCNB (LCNB Corporation) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 12.3x, ROIC 8.4%, cap $281.1M) and OVLY (Oak Valley Bancorp (CA)) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 9.4x, ROIC 14.8%, cap $289.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OVLY leads on earnings multiple (9.4x) while OVLY leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HWBK?

Per HWBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000893847), Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. generated $795.8M in revenue (+3.8% YoY), $23.8M in net income, and $22.8M in free cash flow against $1.89B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HWBK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HWBK last traded at $39.34 (+0.98% on volume of 28,174 shares), positioning the stock +1.42% above its 50-day simple moving average ($38.79) and +7.28% above its 200-day simple moving average ($36.67). Across its 52-week range of $30.07 to $40.60, HWBK sits at the 88.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($37.73 to $40.95).

Direct Sub-Reports: HWBK RQD Cockpit HWBK 12M Forecast HWBK Earnings & Move HWBK Dividends & DRIP HWBK Insiders & 13F HWBK Whale Options HWBK Profit Sankey HWBK News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HWBK — Hawthorn Bancshares Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. (HWBK) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 67/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $39.34 (+0.98% 1D, market capitalization $284.9M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.7%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 7.87%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Major Banks industry. The recent news wire notes that a completed acquisition added 9 full-service branches in northern Missouri to Hawthorn Bank, indicating a branch-based retail and commercial banking footprint.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. (HWBK) reported $795.8M in annual revenue (up from $766.6M in FY2024, +3.8% YoY) and $23.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($66.9M revenue, $956.0K net income) through FY2025, HWBK scaled operating cash flow to $26.9M and free cash flow to $22.8M, backed by $1.89B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 67/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 7.87% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $30.07 – $40.60 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 12.2x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data. The only sector context available is the classification as Financials / Major Banks, which does not by itself establish dependencies. An investor should watch for integration effects from the branch acquisition noted in the news wire, but the source does not quantify them.

  • Key Question #1: Can HWBK sustain or expand its — operating margin and 13.7% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $795.8M and free cash flow of $22.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HWBK's 11.3x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HWBK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. (HWBK) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HWBK Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HWBK Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $39.34?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HWBK 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HWBK:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $49.87 (+28.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Net income rose from $1.0M in FY 2023 to $23.8M in FY 2025 while the RQD rating scores insider conviction at 17/20.

Picked up a starter position in HWBK in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $38.96. Net income rose from $1.0M in FY 2023 to $23.8M in FY 2025 while the RQD rating scores insider conviction at 17/20.. Trading inside a $30.07–$40.60 52-week range with 7.87% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Major Banks multiples expand this quarter.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@CashFlowKing Agree on the RQD 67/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $38.96 and keeping dry powder in case we test $36.23.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $32.34 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $38.96

Valuation & margin reality check on HWBK at $38.96 before chasing here

Fading this rally in HWBK at $38.96. Valuation & margin reality check on HWBK at $38.96 before chasing here. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $38.96 (52-wk range $30.07–$40.60), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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