ROARABLE
FREE $100K
Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / HTGC
AAMI (50) FSK (51) NAN (45) APAM (59) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Hercules Capital Inc. (HTGC) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$16.53 -0.36% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.49

Hercules Capital Inc. (HTGC) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.14B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HTGC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HTGC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Hercules Capital Inc. (NYSE: HTGC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $16.53 (-0.36% 1D, market cap $3.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HTGC ranks #884 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HTGC compare to AAMI and FSK in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), HTGC carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.3%. By comparison, AAMI (Acadian Asset Management Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 40.5x, ROIC 40.3%, cap $3.16B) and FSK (FS KKR Capital Corp.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.2%, cap $3.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HTGC leads on earnings multiple (9.3x) while APAM leads on capital efficiency (71.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HTGC?
▼

Per HTGC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001280784), Hercules Capital Inc. generated $1.93B in revenue (+19.6% YoY), $339.7M in net income, and -$425.8M in free cash flow against $4.58B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.49 (-0.25%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
025507510042
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (7)Whales (9)SEC (10)Macro (8)CEO (8)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target
$20 Bull$15 Base$12 Bear
📬 FREE HTGC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HTGC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HTGC SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±3.6% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 13 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
34
Grade E$16.40-0.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
37
Grade E$16.28+1.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
39
Grade E$16.58-0.3% Next Q
Current
42
Grade D-$16.53-7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (34) → D- (42)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HTGC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HTGC currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.99) and Max Pain ($17.36) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $20.09.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HTGC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HTGC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 42%NO 58%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
48.630 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
2 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE52% OF RANGE
L: $14$16.53H: $19
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 7 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on HTGC

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (35)

15.3% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and -13.46% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (42)

17/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like HTGC
  • ✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HTGC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of HTGC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
HTGC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +0.55%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $16.90H $16.90L $16.53C $16.53VOL 2.20M
RES: $18.38SUP: $15.82SMA50: $16.99SMA200: $16.14
$18.14$17.28$16.42$15.55$14.69RES $18.38SUP $15.82$16.532026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HTGC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HTGC Butterfly Map → + Track HTGC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-2.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +19.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HTGC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HTGC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HTGC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HTGC)

Financials Rank #884 of 1097 ⚔️ AAMI vs HTGC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HTGC vs. AAMI, FSK, NAN, APAM)

Industry: Investment Managers (79 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hercules Capital Inc. (HTGC) ranks #884 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #354 by equity capitalization ($3.14B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HTGC leads on earnings valuation at 9.3x trailing P/E, while APAM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 71.9% ROIC and — gross margin. APAM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with HTGC at 42/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HTGC ACTIVE
Hercules Capital Inc.
D- 42/100 9.3x — 15.3% -0.36% $3.14B Benchmark Subject
AAMI
Acadian Asset Management Inc.
D 50/100 40.5x — 40.3% -1.57% $3.16B /aami-vs-htgc →
FSK
FS KKR Capital Corp.
D 51/100 — — 0.2% +3.72% $3.05B /fsk-vs-htgc →
NAN
Nuveen New York Quality Municipal Income Fund
D 45/100 — — — +0.30% $3.03B /nan-vs-htgc →
APAM
Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (Class A)
C- 59/100 10.2x — 71.9% +5.06% $2.97B /apam-vs-htgc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001280784 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hercules Capital Inc. (HTGC) reported GAAP revenue of $1.93B (+19.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.61B , and +26.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $339.7M, operating cash flow of -$425.8M, and free cash flow of -$425.8M (-260.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, HTGC closed FY2025 with $4.58B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.93B $339.7M -$425.8M -$425.8M $4.58B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.61B $263.0M -$118.1M -$118.1M $3.83B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.52B $337.5M $68.3M $68.3M — —

3. HTGC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HTGC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Hercules Capital Inc. (NYSE: HTGC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $16.53 (-0.36% 1D, market cap $3.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 8/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HTGC ranks #884 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HTGC compare to AAMI and FSK in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Investment Managers), HTGC carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.3%. By comparison, AAMI (Acadian Asset Management Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 40.5x, ROIC 40.3%, cap $3.16B) and FSK (FS KKR Capital Corp.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.2%, cap $3.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HTGC leads on earnings multiple (9.3x) while APAM leads on capital efficiency (71.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HTGC?

Per HTGC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001280784), Hercules Capital Inc. generated $1.93B in revenue (+19.6% YoY), $339.7M in net income, and -$425.8M in free cash flow against $4.58B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HTGC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HTGC last traded at $16.53 (-0.36% on volume of 1,902,049 shares), positioning the stock -2.71% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.99) and +2.42% above its 200-day simple moving average ($16.14). Across its 52-week range of $13.70 to $19.13, HTGC sits at the 52.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.6% ($15.93 to $17.13).

Direct Sub-Reports: HTGC RQD Cockpit HTGC 12M Forecast HTGC Earnings & Move HTGC Dividends & DRIP HTGC Insiders & 13F HTGC Whale Options HTGC Profit Sankey HTGC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 42/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HTGC — Hercules Capital Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Hercules Capital Inc. (HTGC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 42/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $16.53 (-0.36% 1D, market capitalization $3.14B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 15.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -13.46%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

And profile, Hercules Capital Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Investment Managers industry. The profile provided does not describe its products, customer base, or revenue model. Market capitalization is $3.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Hercules Capital Inc. (HTGC) reported $1.93B in annual revenue (up from $1.61B in FY2024, +19.6% YoY) and $339.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.52B revenue, $337.5M net income) through FY2025, HTGC scaled operating cash flow to -$425.8M and free cash flow to -$425.8M, backed by $4.58B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 42/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -13.46% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $13.70 – $19.13 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 9.3x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies are recorded (supply_chain: NONE; butterfly_links: empty). The sector is Financials and the industry is Investment Managers, but no sector correlations are provided in the source data. The second-order channel to watch is the news-reported bond issuance, which the GREEN catalyst headline links to the bull case, together with the RED earnings-miss item.

  • Key Question #1: Can HTGC sustain or expand its — operating margin and 15.3% ROIC against Investment Managers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.93B and free cash flow of -$425.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HTGC's 8.6x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HTGC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Hercules Capital Inc. (HTGC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HTGC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HTGC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $16.53?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HTGC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HTGC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $20.41 (+23.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

A 10.31% dividend yield and a forward P/E of 8.6 offer income and valuation support on a stock that is up 63% over five years.

The street is overcomplicating Hercules Capital Inc. (HTGC). A 10.31% dividend yield and a forward P/E of 8.6 offer income and valuation support on a stock that is up 63% over five years.. With an RQD score of 42/100 (D-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $17.92.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MultipleCompression Fair point on 9.3x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Investment Managers. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $13.44 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $16.59

Negative FCF yield of -13.46% and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicate that reported earnings are not converting into cash for sharehold

Careful chasing HTGC at $16.59. Negative FCF yield of -13.46% and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 indicate that reported earnings are not converting into cash for shareholders.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $13.44 on multiple compression.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $202.06 -1.26% AAPL $338.32 -1.83% MSFT $507.12 -2.83% TSLA $403.82 +1.00% PLTR $178.34 -3.13% SOFI $16.60 -0.95% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%