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Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (HRZN) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$4.02 -1.23% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.00

Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (HRZN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $272.8M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HRZN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (NASDAQ: HRZN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $4.02 (-1.23% 1D, market cap $272.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HRZN ranks #701 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HRZN compare to RWAY and HTT in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), HRZN carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -0.8%. By comparison, RWAY (Runway Growth Finance Corp.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 8.1x, ROIC 7.0%, cap $273.3M) and HTT (High Templar Tech Limited each representing one Class A ordinary share) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.2%, cap $279.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RWAY leads on earnings multiple (8.1x) while XYF leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HRZN?
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Per HRZN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001487428), Horizon Technology Finance Corporation generated $340.7M in revenue (-1.3% YoY), -$2.7M in net income, and $56.6M in free cash flow against $811.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.00 (-0.41%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 16.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510048
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Cash (11)Whales (3)SEC (13)Macro (9)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
$7 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE HRZN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HRZN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HRZN SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$4.54-9.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
53
Grade C-$4.10-4.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$3.91+2.8% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$4.02-5.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HRZN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HRZN currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.51) and Max Pain ($4.22) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.19.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HRZN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HRZN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
1.8% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (6.8% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $19,307

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $348/yr
$10.7K
Yr 1
$11.4K
Yr 2
$12.2K
Yr 3
$13.0K
Yr 4
$13.9K
Yr 5
$14.8K
Yr 6
$15.8K
Yr 7
$16.9K
Yr 8
$18.1K
Yr 9
$19.3K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HRZN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of HRZN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HRZN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.83%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $4.13H $4.13L $4.02C $4.02VOL 456.6K
RES: $5.54SUP: $3.87SMA50: $4.51SMA200: $4.76
$6.32$5.66$5.00$4.34$3.69RES $5.54SUP $3.87$4.022026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HRZN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HRZN Butterfly Map → + Track HRZN →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -1.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HRZN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HRZN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HRZN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HRZN)

Financials Rank #701 of 1097 ⚔️ RWAY vs HRZN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HRZN vs. RWAY, HTT, XYF, BTBT)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (HRZN) ranks #701 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #833 by equity capitalization ($272.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RWAY leads on earnings valuation at 8.1x trailing P/E, while XYF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.8% ROIC and — gross margin. XYF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 53/100 (D+) compared with HRZN at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HRZN ACTIVE
Horizon Technology Finance Corporation
D 48/100 — — -0.8% -1.23% $272.8M Benchmark Subject
RWAY
Runway Growth Finance Corp.
D+ 52/100 8.1x — 7.0% -0.61% $273.3M /rway-vs-hrzn →
HTT
High Templar Tech Limited each representing one Class A ordinary share
D- 35/100 — — -5.2% +0.56% $279.5M /htt-vs-hrzn →
XYF
X Financial each representing six (Class A)
D+ 53/100 — — 18.8% +1.68% $260.8M /xyf-vs-hrzn →
BTBT
Bit Digital Inc.
E 23/100 — — -12.0% -8.05% $288.5M /btbt-vs-hrzn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001487428 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (HRZN) reported GAAP revenue of $340.7M (-1.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $345.2M , and +340.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$2.7M, operating cash flow of $56.6M, and free cash flow of $56.6M (+1338.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, HRZN closed FY2025 with $811.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $340.7M -$2.7M $56.6M $56.6M $811.1M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $345.2M -$5.6M $3.9M $3.9M $821.8M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $77.3M -$17.2M -$5.3M -$5.3M — —

3. HRZN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HRZN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (NASDAQ: HRZN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $4.02 (-1.23% 1D, market cap $272.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HRZN ranks #701 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HRZN compare to RWAY and HTT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), HRZN carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -0.8%. By comparison, RWAY (Runway Growth Finance Corp.) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 8.1x, ROIC 7.0%, cap $273.3M) and HTT (High Templar Tech Limited each representing one Class A ordinary share) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.2%, cap $279.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RWAY leads on earnings multiple (8.1x) while XYF leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HRZN?

Per HRZN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001487428), Horizon Technology Finance Corporation generated $340.7M in revenue (-1.3% YoY), -$2.7M in net income, and $56.6M in free cash flow against $811.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HRZN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HRZN last traded at $4.02 (-1.23% on volume of 624,019 shares), positioning the stock -10.86% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.51) and -15.55% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.76). Across its 52-week range of $3.80 to $6.85, HRZN sits at the 7.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.2% ($3.77 to $4.27).

Direct Sub-Reports: HRZN RQD Cockpit HRZN 12M Forecast HRZN Earnings & Move HRZN Dividends & DRIP HRZN Insiders & 13F HRZN Whale Options HRZN Profit Sankey HRZN News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HRZN — Horizon Technology Finance Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (HRZN) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $4.02 (-1.23% 1D, market capitalization $272.8M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -0.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 20.45%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Horizon Technology Finance Corporation is listed on NASDAQ under ticker HRZN...3B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (HRZN) reported $340.7M in annual revenue (up from $345.2M in FY2024, -1.3% YoY) and -$2.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($77.3M revenue, -$17.2M net income) through FY2025, HRZN scaled operating cash flow to $56.6M and free cash flow to $56.6M, backed by $811.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 48/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 20.45% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.80 – $6.85 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain structure, no upstream or downstream links, and no proprietary signals, so upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be mapped from the provided sources.

  • Key Question #1: Can HRZN sustain or expand its — operating margin and -0.8% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $340.7M and free cash flow of $56.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HRZN's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HRZN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (HRZN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HRZN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HRZN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $4.02?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HRZN 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HRZN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.68 (+15.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, a 20.45% FCF yield and a 13/20 forensic balance-sheet score offer cash-flow support.

Per the RQD rating, a 20.45% FCF yield and a 13/20 forensic balance-sheet score offer cash-flow support.. When you look under the hood at HRZN, Fundamental Cash Engine is 11/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -0.8% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (3/20) has been quietly accumulating below $6.85. My 12M target is $4.68.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MultipleCompression Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Finance: Consumer Services. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.34 (-17.9%)
Spot @ $4.07

Per the RQD rating, the 3/20 institutional-flow score and negative ROIC of -0.8% point to weak positioning and distribution risk.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on HRZN: Per the RQD rating, the 3/20 institutional-flow score and negative ROIC of -0.8% point to weak positioning and distribution risk.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Finance: Consumer Services triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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