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Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc. (HRMY) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$37.91 -2.19% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.85

Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc. (HRMY) earns a Roarable Rating of A (Strong Buy) with 86/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (77.2% gross margin, 63% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE A • STRONG BUY Cap $2.26B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HRMY Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HRMY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: HRMY) is rated A (Strong Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 86/100 at a spot price of $37.91 (-2.19% 1D, market cap $2.26B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 20/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 19/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, HRMY ranks #3 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HRMY compare to VERA and HCM in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), HRMY carries a Roarable A (86/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.2x, gross margin of 77.2%, and ROIC of 63.0%. By comparison, VERA (Vera Therapeutics Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.23B) and HCM (HUTCHMED (China) Limited) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E 5.2x, ROIC -2.5%, cap $2.29B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCM leads on earnings multiple (5.2x) while HRMY leads on capital efficiency (63.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HRMY?
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Per HRMY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001802665), Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc. generated $868.5M in revenue (+21.5% YoY), $158.7M in net income, and $347.9M in free cash flow against $1.27B in total assets and $143.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (77.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.85 (-0.15%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 20/20 (A+) • 40.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 86/100 (A) historically ranked in the Top 5% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+9.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 73.2% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSTRONG BUY • A
025507510086
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk A
Cash (20)Whales (11)SEC (18)Macro (18)CEO (19)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+12.6% Base Target
$50 Bull$43 Base$31 Bear
📬 FREE HRMY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HRMY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (86/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HRMY SCORES 86/100 (A) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+20/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 40.1% FCF Margin ($347.9M FCF) & 77.2% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
78
Grade A-$37.03+4.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
81
Grade A-$38.70-1.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
83
Grade A$37.95-0.1% Next Q
Current
86
Grade A$37.91+9.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: A- (78) → A (86)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HRMY Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 86/100 (A) score, HRMY faces multiple-compression risk if 14.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 74.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($39.78) or 200D SMA ($34.71) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($42.69) toward Bear Floor ($31.09).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HRMY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HRMY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 86%NO 14%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your HRMY Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $37.91: 263.8 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $31.09
$8,201
$-1,799 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $42.69
$11,261
+$1,261 (+12.6%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $50.37
$13,287
+$3,287 (+32.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (43 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 32● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$4474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadSTRONG BUY$4769%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$3758%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (HRMY Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HRMY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.32%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $38.59H $38.76L $37.91C $37.91VOL 871.5K
RES: $48.09SUP: $33.47SMA50: $39.78SMA200: $34.71
$44.51$40.27$36.03$31.79$27.54RES $48.09SUP $33.47$37.912026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HRMY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HRMY Butterfly Map → + Track HRMY →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
6.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +21.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HRMY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HRMY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HRMY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HRMY)

Health Care Rank #3 of 1015 ⚔️ VERA vs HRMY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (HRMY vs. VERA, HCM, XNCR, AUPH)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc. (HRMY) ranks #3 by composite RQD confidence (86/100, grade A) and #234 by equity capitalization ($2.26B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HCM leads on earnings valuation at 5.2x trailing P/E, while HRMY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 63.0% ROIC and 77.2% gross margin. HRMY currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 86/100 (A).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HRMY ACTIVE
Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc.
A 86/100 14.2x 77.2% 63.0% -2.19% $2.26B Benchmark Subject
VERA
Vera Therapeutics Inc. (Class A)
E 31/100 — — -35.0% -2.36% $2.23B /vera-vs-hrmy →
HCM
HUTCHMED (China) Limited
E 34/100 5.2x — -2.5% +0.91% $2.29B /hcm-vs-hrmy →
XNCR
Xencor Inc.
D 47/100 — — -21.3% -0.54% $2.22B /xncr-vs-hrmy →
AUPH
Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
B 74/100 8.0x 88.5% 16.5% -3.06% $2.22B /auph-vs-hrmy →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001802665 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc. (HRMY) reported GAAP revenue of $868.5M (+21.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $714.7M , and +49.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $158.7M, operating cash flow of $348.2M, and free cash flow of $347.9M (+59.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, HRMY closed FY2025 with $1.27B in total assets against $143.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.38, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $868.5M $158.7M $348.2M $347.9M $1.27B $143.7M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $714.7M $145.5M $219.8M $218.7M $999.2M $163.0M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $582.0M $128.9M $219.4M $219.4M — —

3. HRMY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HRMY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: HRMY) is rated A (Strong Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 86/100 at a spot price of $37.91 (-2.19% 1D, market cap $2.26B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 20/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 18/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 19/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, HRMY ranks #3 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HRMY compare to VERA and HCM in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), HRMY carries a Roarable A (86/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.2x, gross margin of 77.2%, and ROIC of 63.0%. By comparison, VERA (Vera Therapeutics Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.23B) and HCM (HUTCHMED (China) Limited) posts a E grade (34/100 RQD, P/E 5.2x, ROIC -2.5%, cap $2.29B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCM leads on earnings multiple (5.2x) while HRMY leads on capital efficiency (63.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HRMY?

Per HRMY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001802665), Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc. generated $868.5M in revenue (+21.5% YoY), $158.7M in net income, and $347.9M in free cash flow against $1.27B in total assets and $143.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (77.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HRMY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HRMY last traded at $37.91 (-2.19% on volume of 994,027 shares), positioning the stock -4.70% below its 50-day simple moving average ($39.78) and +9.22% above its 200-day simple moving average ($34.71). Across its 52-week range of $25.90 to $43.49, HRMY sits at the 68.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.2% ($34.80 to $41.02).

Direct Sub-Reports: HRMY RQD Cockpit HRMY 12M Forecast HRMY Earnings & Move HRMY Dividends & DRIP HRMY Insiders & 13F HRMY Whale Options HRMY Profit Sankey HRMY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 86/100 (A) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HRMY — Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc. (HRMY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 86/100, corresponding to a A letter grade (Roarable Strong Buy) at a spot price of $37.91 (-2.19% 1D, market capitalization $2.26B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (20/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 63.0%, gross margin of 77.2%, operating margin of 24.0%, and free cash flow yield of 15.48%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (11/20) + Insider Conviction (19/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (18/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 5.38, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.17x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. It operates with a market capitalization of $2.2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc. (HRMY) reported $868.5M in annual revenue (up from $714.7M in FY2024, +21.5% YoY) and $158.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($582.0M revenue, $128.9M net income) through FY2025, HRMY scaled operating cash flow to $348.2M and free cash flow to $347.9M, backed by $1.27B in total assets against $143.7M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (A • RQD 86/100): Strong cash generator (77.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 20/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 11/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $25.90 – $43.49 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 14.2x trailing P/E and 7.8x EV/EBITDA against 24.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

For a prospective investor, the second-order items the source does raise are the leadership transition and the patent ruling referenced in the news feed; their timing and magnitude are not resolved by the data.

  • Key Question #1: Can HRMY sustain or expand its 24.0% operating margin and 63.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $868.5M and free cash flow of $347.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $143.7M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HRMY's 11.9x forward P/E multiple to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HRMY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Harmony Biosciences Holdings Inc. (HRMY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HRMY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HRMY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $37.91?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HRMY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HRMY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $49.23 (+27.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Cash generation is exceptional, with FY 2025 FCF of $347.9M, an FCF yield of 15.48%, and ROIC of 63%.

Cash generation is exceptional, with FY 2025 FCF of $347.9M, an FCF yield of 15.48%, and ROIC of 63%.. When you look under the hood at HRMY, Fundamental Cash Engine is 20/20 with 77.2% gross margins and 63.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (11/20) has been quietly accumulating below $43.49. My 12M target is $49.23.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@MultipleCompression Shorting a 11/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $38.76 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $29.46 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $38.76

A pending patent ruling and a CEO transition are flagged in the news feed, and institutional flow scores only 11/20.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on HRMY: A pending patent ruling and a CEO transition are flagged in the news feed, and institutional flow scores only 11/20.. At 14.2x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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