Yahoo Finance report covering Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why HOG Stock surged +2.93% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (24% profit margin, 18% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is HOG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼
As of 2026-11-02, Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $31.22 (+2.93% 1D, market cap $3.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HOG ranks #66 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does HOG compare to LKQ and FOXF in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
▼
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Motor Vehicles), HOG carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.3x, gross margin of 23.9%, and ROIC of 18.0%. By comparison, LKQ (LKQ Corporation) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 7.5x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $4.58B) and FOXF (Fox Factory Holding Corp.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $686.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LKQ leads on earnings multiple (7.5x) while HOG leads on capital efficiency (18.0% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HOG?
▼
Per HOG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000793952), Harley-Davidson Inc. generated $3.60B in revenue (-13.1% YoY), $338.7M in net income, and $415.2M in free cash flow against $8.04B in total assets and $1.65B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.6% realized swing band)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 8 pts from forensic ceiling
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HOG Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 75/100 (B) score, HOG faces multiple-compression risk if 9.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 21.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($27.29) or 200D SMA ($24.08) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($33.61) toward Bear Floor ($25.60).
Why HOG Stock surged +2.93% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) surged +2.93% to $31.22, trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($17.09 – $31.23). High-quality cash engine (24% profit margin, 18% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 99% of its 52-week range ($17.09 – $31.23) with RSI-14 at 66.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.6% around $31.22 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable B (Buy) backed by 23.9% gross margin and $415.2M annual free cash flow.
TradingView report covering Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
GuruFocus report covering Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
HOG's improving North American retail trends, cost savings and strong liquidity support its recovery, but shipment weakness, tariff pressures and LiveWire losses remain concerns.
Harley-Davidson shares have surged year to date, helped by fresh headlines around its core motorcycle business and its electric offshoot. With that kind of move on the screen, the key issue for you as an investor is whet
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (HOG Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
HOG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. -13.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HOG today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HOG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HOG)
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HOG vs. LKQ, FOXF, LVWR, INEO)
Industry: Motor Vehicles (8 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) ranks #66 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #354 by equity capitalization ($3.16B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LKQ leads on earnings valuation at 7.5x trailing P/E, while HOG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.0% ROIC and 23.9% gross margin. HOG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 75/100 (B).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOG
ACTIVE
Harley-Davidson Inc. | B | 75/100 | 9.3x | 23.9% | 18.0% | +2.93% | $3.16B | Benchmark Subject |
| LKQ LKQ Corporation | D+ | 56/100 | 7.5x | 38.6% | 8.5% | +2.54% | $4.58B | /lkq-vs-hog → |
| FOXF Fox Factory Holding Corp. | D- | 39/100 | — | 30.2% | -35.0% | -2.08% | $686.4M | /foxf-vs-hog → |
| LVWR LiveWire Group Inc. | E | 20/100 | — | -17.3% | -35.0% | -26.67% | $184.9M | /lvwr-vs-hog → |
| INEO INNEOVA Holdings Limited (Class A) | D | 44/100 | — | 19.2% | -1.0% | -7.00% | $9.2M | /ineo-vs-hog → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000793952In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) reported GAAP revenue of $3.60B (-13.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.15B , and -26.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $338.7M, operating cash flow of $568.9M, and free cash flow of $415.2M (-52.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, HOG closed FY2025 with $8.04B in total assets against $1.65B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.18, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $3.60B | $338.7M | $568.9M | $415.2M | $8.04B | $1.65B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $4.15B | $455.4M | $1.06B | $867.3M | $11.88B | $4.47B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $4.88B | $706.6M | $754.9M | $535.2M | $5.86B | $1.37B |
3. HOG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs HOG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, Harley-Davidson Inc. (NYSE: HOG) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $31.22 (+2.93% 1D, market cap $3.16B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HOG ranks #66 in composite RQD confidence.
How does HOG compare to LKQ and FOXF in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Motor Vehicles), HOG carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.3x, gross margin of 23.9%, and ROIC of 18.0%. By comparison, LKQ (LKQ Corporation) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 7.5x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $4.58B) and FOXF (Fox Factory Holding Corp.) posts a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $686.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LKQ leads on earnings multiple (7.5x) while HOG leads on capital efficiency (18.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HOG?
Per HOG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000793952), Harley-Davidson Inc. generated $3.60B in revenue (-13.1% YoY), $338.7M in net income, and $415.2M in free cash flow against $8.04B in total assets and $1.65B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is HOG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
HOG last traded at $31.22 (+2.93% on volume of 3,254,312 shares), positioning the stock +14.40% above its 50-day simple moving average ($27.29) and +29.65% above its 200-day simple moving average ($24.08). Across its 52-week range of $17.09 to $31.23, HOG sits at the 99.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 66.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($28.85 to $33.59).
HOG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is HOG stock moving today?
Why HOG Stock surged +2.93% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. High-quality cash engine (24% profit margin, 18% return on capital) with steady institutional support.
HOG — Harley-Davidson Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Per the Roarable RQD rating, HOG scores 75 out of 100, a letter grade of B, with the verdict "Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward." The five pillars are:
- Fundamental Cash Engine: 14 / 20 (ROIC 18%; FCF yield 13.16%). This is the pillar that most directly supports valuation, since a high free-cash-flow yield suggests the business generates substantial cash relative to its market value. The score is held back by the reported financial trend (see Financial Trend).
- Whale 13F Flow: 18 / 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning). This is the strongest pillar, indicating that institutional activity leans toward accumulation per the RQD methodology. The underlying 13F holder detail is not itemized in the source data.
- Insider Conviction: 17 / 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow). A high score here reflects insider and congressional trade clustering as captured by the RQD model. Individual transactions are not itemized in the source data.
- Macro Regime Fit: 14 / 20 (beta 0.92; sector sensitivity). A beta below 1.0 implies the stock has historically moved less than the market, which can be a stabilizing feature in volatile regimes, though it does not guarantee lower drawdowns.
- Forensic Balance Sheet: 12 / 20 (Altman Z 2.18; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.53). This is the lowest pillar. An Altman Z of 2.18 and a Piotroski F of 6/9 sit in a middle range, and the score signals that balance-sheet quality is a point of scrutiny rather than a clear strength.
Investor implications: The upside case rests on strong institutional and insider signals plus a cash-generation profile reflected in the FCF yield. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the low multiples (P/E TTM 9.3, forward P/E 8.6, EV/EBITDA 3.5), which may indicate the market is pricing in risks the RQD pillars do not fully capture. The forensic pillar's middling score argues for examining the trend in reported revenue and net income before weighting the overall grade heavily.
Snapshot
Business
Harley-Davidson Inc. is a NYSE-listed company classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Motor Vehicles industry, per the profile section. The source data does not itemize its product lines, customer segments, or revenue mix. The company's reported gross margin is 23.9%, operating margin 10.7%, and net margin 9.4%, per the market data section. Not available in source data for further detail on how the company sells products or earns revenue beyond these classifications and margin figures.
Financial Trend
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $3604.0M | $386.6M | $338.7M | N/A | $415.2M | $3091.7M | $1649.6M |
| FY 2024 | $4148.3M | $416.6M | $455.4M | N/A | $867.3M | $1589.6M | $4468.7M |
| FY 2023 | $4882.9M | $779.1M | $706.6M | N/A | $535.2M | N/A | $1371.1M |
Per the SEC financials, reported revenue declined from $4882.9M (FY 2023) to $4148.3M (FY 2024) to $3604.0M (FY 2025), and net income declined from $706.6M to $455.4M to $338.7M over the same span. Reported cash rose to $3091.7M in FY 2025 while reported debt fell to $1649.6M from $4468.7M in FY 2024. The source data reports ROIC of 18%, an Altman Z-Score of 2.18, a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.53 per the Roarable RQD rating and market data sections. EPS for each reported period is listed as N/A in the SEC financials.
Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis
Per the recent news section, six headlines reference HOG:
- Upgrade-related coverage: "Harley Davidson (HOG) Stock Looks About Right On Fresh Upgrade News" (Yahoo Finance, GREEN, CATALYST) and "Harley-Davidson Shares Rise After Citi Upgrades Stock to Buy" (Yahoo Finance, GREEN, CATALYST).
- Price action: "Why Harley-Davidson (HOG) Stock Is Trading Up Today" (TradingView, YELLOW) and "Why is Harley-Davidson stock up 3% today?" (Investing.com, YELLOW).
- Quality score: "Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) Shares Surge 6.7% -- What GF Score of 80 Tells Investors" (GuruFocus, GREEN, CATALYST).
- Rating change: "Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) Stock Rating Raised to "Hold" at Wall Street Zen" (MarketBeat, GREEN, CATALYST).
Risk watch items: The source data does not identify specific risk events in these headlines. The YELLOW-flagged market-wire items describe price moves without stated fundamental drivers. Proprietary signals: None, per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph.
Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples
Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are not available in source data.
Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership
Per the analyst data section, no analyst records are provided. The holders section likewise contains no 13F, Form 4, or Congressional trade records. Not available in source data for consensus rating, price targets, or individual smart-money transactions. The RQD whale and insider pillars (18/20 and 17/20) reflect flow signals in aggregate, but the underlying holder-level records are not provided.
Open Questions
- What is the company's revenue mix by product line and geography, given the reported revenue decline across FY 2023–FY 2025?
- Why did reported net income fall while reported cash rose, and what drove the reduction in reported debt from FY 2024 to FY 2025?
- What are the EPS figures for each reported fiscal year, since the SEC financials list EPS as N/A?
- Which specific 13F holders, insider transactions, and options positions underlie the strong whale and insider pillar scores?
- What fundamental drivers, if any, accompany the upgrade and price-move headlines in the recent news section?
HOG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
GuruFocus report covering Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketBeat report covering Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Harley-Davidson Inc. (HOG) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
HOG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $31.22?
🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is HOG (B • RQD 75/100) a Buy at $30.33?
Welcome to the HOG (Harley-Davidson Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 75/100 (Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward) in Motor Vehicles. Bulls point to capital efficiency (18.0% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Pump the brakes on HOG — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on HOG, but look at what you are paying: 9.3x trailing P/E with 23.9% gross margins. Unless Harley-Davidson Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
HOG cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on HOG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Motor Vehicles and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $30.33 (52-wk range $17.09 - $31.23), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.