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Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$15.20 +5.19% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.31

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $9.17B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HMY Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HMY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (NYSE: HMY) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $15.20 (+5.19% 1D, market cap $9.17B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, HMY ranks #72 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HMY compare to IAG and EGO in the Materials sector?
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Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), HMY carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, IAG (Iamgold Corporation) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $8.82B) and EGO (Eldorado Gold Corporation) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $8.00B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HMY leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while HMY leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HMY?
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For Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. and sector rank #72 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.31 (+0.74%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 5.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510053
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (4)SEC (16)Macro (9)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target
$27 Bull$15 Base$12 Bear
📬 FREE HMY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HMY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HMY SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.74 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 5.1% FCF Margin ($202.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$16.29+3.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$16.85-4.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$16.16-5.9% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$15.20-0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HMY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HMY currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($18.04) and Max Pain ($15.96) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $27.36.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HMY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HMY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your HMY Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $15.20: 657.9 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $11.59
$7,625
$-2,375 (-23.7%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $14.86
$9,776
$-224 (-2.2%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $27.36
$18,000
+$8,000 (+80.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1574%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2669%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HMY)

  • ✓Walkthrough of HMY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HMY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.87%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $15.73H $15.73L $14.45C $15.20VOL 5.38M
RES: $27.20SUP: $14.27SMA50: $18.04SMA200: $17.79
$24.36$21.60$18.85$16.09$13.33RES $27.20SUP $14.27$15.202026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HMY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HMY Butterfly Map → + Track HMY →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
25.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HMY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HMY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HMY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HMY)

Materials Rank #72 of 270 ⚔️ IAG vs HMY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (HMY vs. IAG, EGO, EQX, AGI)

Industry: Precious Metals (74 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) ranks #72 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #46 by equity capitalization ($9.17B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HMY leads on earnings valuation at 32.8x trailing P/E, while HMY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. EQX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 54/100 (D+) compared with HMY at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HMY ACTIVE
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
D+ 53/100 32.8x — 9.9% +5.19% $9.17B Benchmark Subject
IAG
Iamgold Corporation
D+ 52/100 32.8x — 9.9% +3.56% $8.82B /iag-vs-hmy →
EGO
Eldorado Gold Corporation
D+ 53/100 32.8x — 9.9% +5.36% $8.00B /ego-vs-hmy →
EQX
Equinox Gold Corp.
D+ 54/100 32.8x — 9.9% +3.92% $11.32B /eqx-vs-hmy →
AGI
Alamos Gold Inc. (Class A)
D+ 53/100 32.8x — 9.9% +1.13% $11.49B /agi-vs-hmy →

2. HMY Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) operates in Precious Metals (Materials) with an equity capitalization of $9.17B, trailing P/E of 32.8x, forward P/E of 27.6x, and EV/EBITDA of 21.0x. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, net profit margin of 10.9%, ROIC of 9.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%, alongside an Altman Z-Score of 3.74 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9.

3. HMY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HMY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (NYSE: HMY) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $15.20 (+5.19% 1D, market cap $9.17B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, HMY ranks #72 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HMY compare to IAG and EGO in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), HMY carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.9%. By comparison, IAG (Iamgold Corporation) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $8.82B) and EGO (Eldorado Gold Corporation) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $8.00B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HMY leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while HMY leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HMY?

For Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY), key quantitative strengths include Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. and sector rank #72 in Materials, while primary risk factors center on Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 25.3%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HMY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HMY last traded at $15.20 (+5.19% on volume of 3,626,777 shares), positioning the stock -15.74% below its 50-day simple moving average ($18.04) and -14.56% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.79). Across its 52-week range of $13.03 to $26.06, HMY sits at the 16.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.6% ($14.20 to $16.20).

Direct Sub-Reports: HMY RQD Cockpit HMY 12M Forecast HMY Earnings & Move HMY Dividends & DRIP HMY Insiders & 13F HMY Whale Options HMY Profit Sankey HMY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HMY — Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 53/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $15.20 (+5.19% 1D, market capitalization $9.17B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 9.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 13.9%, and free cash flow yield of 2.21%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 0.92x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.74, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Materials sector and Precious Metals industry..0B. — for the specific products sold, customer base, or revenue model.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 53/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 2.21% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $13.03 – $26.06 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 32.8x trailing P/E and 21.0x EV/EBITDA against 13.9% operating margins and a 0.92x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Precious Metals (Materials), HMY carries a macro regime beta of 0.92 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can HMY sustain or expand its 13.9% operating margin and 9.9% ROIC against Precious Metals peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (2.21% FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score 3.74) toward the $26.06 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HMY's 27.6x forward P/E multiple to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.92x)?

HMY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HMY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HMY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $15.20?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HMY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HMY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $18.64 (+29.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The forensic balance sheet scores 16/20 with an Altman Z of 3.74, Piotroski F of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39, indicating financial sol

The street is overcomplicating Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY). The forensic balance sheet scores 16/20 with an Altman Z of 3.74, Piotroski F of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.39, indicating financial solidity.. With an RQD score of 53/100 (D+) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 16/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $15.61.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@SiliconVal_Bull Agree on the RQD 53/100 quality, though with 0.92 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $14.45 and keeping dry powder in case we test $13.44.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.56 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $14.45

The Roarable rating's institutional flow pillar scores only 4/20 and the FCF yield is just 2.21% against a P/E (TTM) of 32.8.

I respect the product at Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited, but the stock at $14.45 is a different story. The Roarable rating's institutional flow pillar scores only 4/20 and the FCF yield is just 2.21% against a P/E (TTM) of 32.8.. FCF yield is 2.21% and RQD sits at 53/100 (D+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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