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HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (HMH) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$17.39 -8.18% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.10

HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (HMH) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 51/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $835.1M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HMH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: HMH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $17.39 (-8.18% 1D, market cap $835.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HMH ranks #528 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HMH compare to FET and OIS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Oil and Gas Field Machinery), HMH carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, FET (Forum Energy Technologies Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 6.1%, cap $974.5M) and OIS (Oil States International Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -15.4%, cap $579.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, INVX leads on earnings multiple (25.2x) while FLOC leads on capital efficiency (30.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HMH?
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Per HMH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002021880), HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) generated $570.2M in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $1.36B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.10 (-1.66%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 4.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510051
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C
Cash (10)Whales (7)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.2% Base Target
$26 Bull$17 Base$13 Bear
📬 FREE HMH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HMH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (51/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HMH SCORES 51/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 13% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 53.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
59
Grade C$18.98-7.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
56
Grade C$17.63+8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
54
Grade C-$19.04-8.7% Next Q
Current
51
Grade D$17.39-1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (59) → D (51)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HMH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HMH currently carries a cautious 51/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($18.81) and Max Pain ($18.26) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.73.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HMH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HMH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 51%NO 49%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your HMH Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $17.39: 575.0 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $13.14
$7,556
$-2,444 (-24.4%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $16.84
$9,684
$-316 (-3.2%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $25.73
$14,796
+$4,796 (+48.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1874%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2469%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$1558%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HMH)

  • ✓Walkthrough of HMH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HMH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -21.74%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $18.67H $18.94L $17.39C $17.39VOL 60.0K
RES: $19.99SUP: $16.45SMA50: $18.81SMA200: $19.77
$25.06$22.74$20.43$18.11$15.79RES $19.99SUP $16.45$17.392026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HMH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HMH Butterfly Map → + Track HMH →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HMH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HMH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HMH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HMH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #528 of 1011 ⚔️ FET vs HMH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HMH vs. FET, OIS, FLOC, INVX)

Industry: Oil and Gas Field Machinery (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (HMH) ranks #528 by composite RQD confidence (51/100, grade D) and #533 by equity capitalization ($835.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, INVX leads on earnings valuation at 25.2x trailing P/E, while FLOC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.0% ROIC and — gross margin. FLOC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with HMH at 51/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HMH ACTIVE
HMH Holding Inc. (Class A)
D 51/100 — — — -8.18% $835.1M Benchmark Subject
FET
Forum Energy Technologies Inc.
D+ 57/100 — 27.7% 6.1% -8.62% $974.5M /fet-vs-hmh →
OIS
Oil States International Inc.
D 51/100 — 19.9% -15.4% -7.50% $579.1M /ois-vs-hmh →
FLOC
Flowco Holdings Inc. (Class A)
B 74/100 43.8x — 30.0% -4.05% $1.81B /floc-vs-hmh →
INVX
Innovex International Inc.
B 73/100 25.2x 31.0% 9.9% -7.23% $1.96B /invx-vs-hmh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002021880 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (HMH) reported GAAP revenue of $570.2M , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, HMH closed FY2025 with $1.36B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $570.2M $0 — — $1.36B —

3. HMH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HMH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: HMH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $17.39 (-8.18% 1D, market cap $835.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HMH ranks #528 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HMH compare to FET and OIS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Oil and Gas Field Machinery), HMH carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, FET (Forum Energy Technologies Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 6.1%, cap $974.5M) and OIS (Oil States International Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -15.4%, cap $579.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, INVX leads on earnings multiple (25.2x) while FLOC leads on capital efficiency (30.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HMH?

Per HMH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002021880), HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) generated $570.2M in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $1.36B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HMH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HMH last traded at $17.39 (-8.18% on volume of 148,135 shares), positioning the stock -7.55% below its 50-day simple moving average ($18.81) and -12.04% below its 200-day simple moving average ($19.77). Across its 52-week range of $16.32 to $24.50, HMH sits at the 13.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.4% ($15.76 to $19.02).

Direct Sub-Reports: HMH RQD Cockpit HMH 12M Forecast HMH Earnings & Move HMH Dividends & DRIP HMH Insiders & 13F HMH Whale Options HMH Profit Sankey HMH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 51/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HMH — HMH Holding Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (HMH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 51/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $17.39 (-8.18% 1D, market capitalization $835.1M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

— The source data identifies HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) as a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Oil and Gas Field Machinery industry, with a market capitalization of $0.8B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (HMH) reported $570.2M in annual revenue and $0 in GAAP net income. Operating cash flow reached $0 and free cash flow totaled $0, backed by $1.36B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 51/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $16.32 – $24.50 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The sector classification (Consumer Discretionary / Oil and Gas Field Machinery) is the only available context.

  • Key Question #1: Can HMH sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Oil and Gas Field Machinery peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $570.2M and free cash flow of $0, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HMH's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HMH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (HMH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HMH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HMH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $17.39?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HMH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HMH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $24.43 (+29.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance-sheet pillars are comparatively sound, with a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, and $96.6M in reported cash.

The street is overcomplicating HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (HMH). Balance-sheet pillars are comparatively sound, with a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, and $96.6M in reported cash.. With an RQD score of 51/100 (D) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $20.46.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Oil and Gas Field Machinery. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

BE BearTrap_Alert RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $16.10 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $18.94

The stock carries a D grade with 0% ROIC and 0% FCF yield, and the rating shows weak institutional and insider conviction.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short HMH above $18.94. The stock carries a D grade with 0% ROIC and 0% FCF yield, and the rating shows weak institutional and insider conviction.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $24.50.

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