ROARABLE
FREE $100K
Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record πŸ’° $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions πŸ›οΈ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Energy / HCC / insiders
CNR (37) BTU (24) AMR (43) NRP (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$82.23 -4.35% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $81.43

Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $4.54B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on HCC Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HCC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Warrior Met Coal Inc. (NYSE: HCC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $82.23 (-4.35% 1D, market cap $4.54B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, HCC ranks #111 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HCC compare to CNR and BTU in the Energy sector?
β–Ό

Within the Energy sector (Coal Mining), HCC carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 79.3x, gross margin of 22.4%, and ROIC of 1.8%. By comparison, CNR (Core Natural Resources Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -4.0%, cap $4.31B) and BTU (Peabody Energy Corporation) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.1%, cap $2.70B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCC leads on earnings multiple (79.3x) while NRP leads on capital efficiency (18.4% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HCC?
β–Ό

Per HCC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001691303), Warrior Met Coal Inc. generated $128.0M in revenue (-82.1% YoY), $57.0M in net income, and $229.2M in free cash flow against $2.78B in total assets and $154.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $81.43 (-0.97%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 179.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 51.8% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510056
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D Β· Rk C
Cash (14)Whales (7)SEC (18)Macro (8)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$117 Bull$81 Base$64 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE HCC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HCC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±7.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY HCC SCORES 56/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 5.92 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 179.1% FCF Margin ($229.2M FCF) & 0% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
64
Grade C+$89.98-6.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
61
Grade C$84.21-0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
59
Grade C$83.43-1.4% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$82.23-0.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C+ (64) β†’ D+ (56)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HCC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, HCC faces multiple-compression risk if 79.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($92.74) or 200D SMA ($89.87) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($81.49) toward Bear Floor ($63.56).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HCCβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œHCC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 56%NO 44%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
SEC FORM 4 Γ— 13F HEDGE FUNDS Γ— CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

HCC Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales β†’
β–² Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)β–Ό Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (HCC)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on HCC. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HCC)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of HCC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) β†’$100K Arena
HCC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.13%β–Ό SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-03O $85.62H $85.97L $82.23C $82.23VOL 547.1K
RES: $112.1SUP: $82.72SMA50: $92.74SMA200: $89.87
$113.9$103.6$93.36$83.08$72.81RES $112.1SUP $82.72$82.232026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HCC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ HCC Butterfly Map β†’ + Track HCC β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -82.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HCC today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HCC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HCC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HCC)

Energy Rank #111 of 211 βš”οΈ CNR vs HCC Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (HCC vs. CNR, BTU, AMR, NRP)

Industry: Coal Mining (10 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) ranks #111 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #89 by equity capitalization ($4.54B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, HCC leads on earnings valuation at 79.3x trailing P/E, while NRP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.4% ROIC and β€” gross margin. NRP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with HCC at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HCC ACTIVE
Warrior Met Coal Inc.
D+ 56/100 79.3x 22.4% 1.8% -4.35% $4.54B Benchmark Subject
CNR
Core Natural Resources Inc.
D- 37/100 β€” β€” -4.0% -3.08% $4.31B /cnr-vs-hcc β†’
BTU
Peabody Energy Corporation
E 24/100 β€” β€” -2.1% -5.09% $2.70B /btu-vs-hcc β†’
AMR
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.
D- 43/100 β€” β€” -4.1% -3.12% $2.02B /amr-vs-hcc β†’
NRP
Natural Resource Partners LP
B- 70/100 β€” β€” 18.4% -1.23% $1.53B /nrp-vs-hcc β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001691303 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) reported GAAP revenue of $128.0M (-82.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $713.7M , and -91.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $57.0M, operating cash flow of $229.2M, and free cash flow of $229.2M (-37.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, HCC closed FY2025 with $2.78B in total assets against $154.3M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.92, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $128.0M $57.0M $229.2M $229.2M $2.78B $154.3M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $713.7M $250.6M $367.4M $367.4M $2.59B $153.6M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.52B $478.6M $701.1M $701.1M $2.49B $581.8M

3. HCC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HCC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Warrior Met Coal Inc. (NYSE: HCC) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $82.23 (-4.35% 1D, market cap $4.54B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, HCC ranks #111 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HCC compare to CNR and BTU in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Coal Mining), HCC carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 79.3x, gross margin of 22.4%, and ROIC of 1.8%. By comparison, CNR (Core Natural Resources Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -4.0%, cap $4.31B) and BTU (Peabody Energy Corporation) posts a E grade (24/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.1%, cap $2.70B). Among the 5-stock peer group, HCC leads on earnings multiple (79.3x) while NRP leads on capital efficiency (18.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HCC?

Per HCC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001691303), Warrior Met Coal Inc. generated $128.0M in revenue (-82.1% YoY), $57.0M in net income, and $229.2M in free cash flow against $2.78B in total assets and $154.3M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HCC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HCC last traded at $82.23 (-4.35% on volume of 983,762 shares), positioning the stock -11.33% below its 50-day simple moving average ($92.74) and -8.50% below its 200-day simple moving average ($89.87). Across its 52-week range of $64.27 to $111.42, HCC sits at the 38.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±7.8% ($75.82 to $88.64).

Direct Sub-Reports: HCC RQD Cockpit HCC 12M Forecast HCC Earnings & Move HCC Dividends & DRIP HCC Insiders & 13F HCC Whale Options HCC Profit Sankey HCC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 56/100 (D+) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HCC β€” Warrior Met Coal Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 56/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $82.23 (-4.35% 1D, market capitalization $4.54B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 1.8%, gross margin of 22.4%, operating margin of 3.6%, and free cash flow yield of 3.81%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 1.02x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 5.92, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.07x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, Coal Mining industry. The company reports operating income and net income across fiscal years, but the source does not describe the product mix, customer base, or revenue model in further detail.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) reported $128.0M in annual revenue (up from $713.7M in FY2024, -82.1% YoY) and $57.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.52B revenue, $478.6M net income) through FY2025, HCC scaled operating cash flow to $229.2M and free cash flow to $229.2M, backed by $2.78B in total assets against $154.3M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D+ β€’ RQD 56/100): Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. Free cash flow yield of 3.81% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $64.27 – $111.42 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh 79.3x trailing P/E and 46.5x EV/EBITDA against 3.6% operating margins and a 1.02x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Coal Mining (Energy), HCC carries a macro regime beta of 1.02 and gross margin of 22.4%.

  • Key Question #1: Can HCC sustain or expand its 3.6% operating margin and 1.8% ROIC against Coal Mining peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $128.0M and free cash flow of $229.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $154.3M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HCC's 66.6x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.02x)?

HCC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Warrior Met Coal Inc. (HCC) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to HCC Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HCC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $82.23?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HCC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HCC:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Cross-Asset Macro Desk πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $104.02 (+21.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

The forensic balance sheet scores 18/20 with Debt/Equity of 0.07 and an Altman Z of 5.92, giving HCC a low-leverage cushion.

The forensic balance sheet scores 18/20 with Debt/Equity of 0.07 and an Altman Z of 5.92, giving HCC a low-leverage cushion.. When you look under the hood at HCC, Fundamental Cash Engine is 14/20 with 22.4% gross margins and 1.8% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (7/20) has been quietly accumulating below $111.42. My 12M target is $104.02.

SectorRotator πŸ‚ BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 79.3x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Coal Mining. If gross margin (22.4%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $70.50 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $85.97

ROIC of 1.8% against a P/E (TTM) of 79.3 and EV/EBITDA of 46.5 leaves the valuation poorly supported by returns.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on HCC: ROIC of 1.8% against a P/E (TTM) of 79.3 and EV/EBITDA of 46.5 leaves the valuation poorly supported by returns.. At 79.3x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Coal Mining triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $202.06 -1.26% AAPL $338.32 -1.83% MSFT $507.12 -2.83% TSLA $403.82 +1.00% PLTR $178.34 -3.13% SOFI $16.60 -0.95% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%