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Home Bancorp Inc. (HBCP) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$61.63 +2.22% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $61.76

Home Bancorp Inc. (HBCP) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $477.0M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is HBCP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Home Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: HBCP) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $61.63 (+2.22% 1D, market cap $477.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HBCP ranks #576 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does HBCP compare to AVBC and PBFS in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Banks), HBCP carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.6%. By comparison, AVBC (Avidia Bancorp Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.9%, cap $469.3M) and PBFS (Pioneer Bancorp Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 22.2x, ROIC 6.3%, cap $447.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NECB leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while NECB leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HBCP?
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Per HBCP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001436425), Home Bancorp Inc. generated $1.47B in revenue (+1.4% YoY), $46.1M in net income, and $44.3M in free cash flow against $3.49B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $61.76 (+0.21%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510053
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (12)Whales (4)SEC (13)Macro (8)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.3% Base Target
$78 Bull$60 Base$47 Bear
📬 FREE HBCP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HBCP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HBCP SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$65.75-9.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$59.47+2.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$61.06+0.9% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$61.63-0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HBCP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HBCP currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($66.31) and Max Pain ($64.71) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $78.23.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HBCP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HBCP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 53%NO 47%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±5.6%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (HBCP)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for HBCP.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HBCP)

  • ✓Walkthrough of HBCP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HBCP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.08%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $61.37H $61.63L $60.61C $61.63VOL 75.7K
RES: $66.52SUP: $55.57SMA50: $66.31SMA200: $65.05
$75.73$70.64$65.55$60.46$55.37RES $66.52SUP $55.57$61.632026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HBCP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HBCP Butterfly Map → + Track HBCP →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-0.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HBCP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HBCP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HBCP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HBCP)

Financials Rank #576 of 1097 ⚔️ AVBC vs HBCP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HBCP vs. AVBC, PBFS, NECB, GCBC)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Home Bancorp Inc. (HBCP) ranks #576 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #715 by equity capitalization ($477.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NECB leads on earnings valuation at 9.0x trailing P/E, while NECB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. NECB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with HBCP at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
HBCP ACTIVE
Home Bancorp Inc.
D+ 53/100 10.5x — 10.6% +2.22% $477.0M Benchmark Subject
AVBC
Avidia Bancorp Inc.
D+ 57/100 — — -0.9% +0.47% $469.3M /avbc-vs-hbcp →
PBFS
Pioneer Bancorp Inc.
D+ 55/100 22.2x — 6.3% +2.33% $447.9M /pbfs-vs-hbcp →
NECB
NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.
B- 71/100 9.0x — 12.6% +1.63% $398.0M /necb-vs-hbcp →
GCBC
Greene County Bancorp Inc.
C+ 67/100 19.6x — 12.1% +2.32% $608.8M /gcbc-vs-hbcp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001436425 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Home Bancorp Inc. (HBCP) reported GAAP revenue of $1.47B (+1.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.45B , and +710.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $46.1M, operating cash flow of $54.5M, and free cash flow of $44.3M (-0.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, HBCP closed FY2025 with $3.49B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.47B $46.1M $54.5M $44.3M $3.49B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.45B $36.4M $48.7M $44.7M $3.44B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $181.1M $40.2M $41.4M $41.4M — —

3. HBCP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HBCP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Home Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: HBCP) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $61.63 (+2.22% 1D, market cap $477.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, HBCP ranks #576 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HBCP compare to AVBC and PBFS in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Banks), HBCP carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.6%. By comparison, AVBC (Avidia Bancorp Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.9%, cap $469.3M) and PBFS (Pioneer Bancorp Inc.) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 22.2x, ROIC 6.3%, cap $447.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NECB leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while NECB leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HBCP?

Per HBCP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001436425), Home Bancorp Inc. generated $1.47B in revenue (+1.4% YoY), $46.1M in net income, and $44.3M in free cash flow against $3.49B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HBCP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HBCP last traded at $61.63 (+2.22% on volume of 95,523 shares), positioning the stock -7.06% below its 50-day simple moving average ($66.31) and -5.26% below its 200-day simple moving average ($65.05). Across its 52-week range of $52.07 to $74.50, HBCP sits at the 42.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($58.18 to $65.08).

Direct Sub-Reports: HBCP RQD Cockpit HBCP 12M Forecast HBCP Earnings & Move HBCP Dividends & DRIP HBCP Insiders & 13F HBCP Whale Options HBCP Profit Sankey HBCP News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

HBCP — Home Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Home Bancorp Inc. (HBCP) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 53/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $61.63 (+2.22% 1D, market capitalization $477.0M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 9.18%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Home Bancorp Inc. (HBCP) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Financials sector and the Banks industry,. The profile identifies its market capitalization as $0.5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Home Bancorp Inc. (HBCP) reported $1.47B in annual revenue (up from $1.45B in FY2024, +1.4% YoY) and $46.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($181.1M revenue, $40.2M net income) through FY2025, HBCP scaled operating cash flow to $54.5M and free cash flow to $44.3M, backed by $3.49B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 53/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 9.18% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $52.07 – $74.50 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 10.5x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks therefore cannot be mapped from the source data. The most relevant ripple to watch is the credit-strain narrative in the news feed: if credit quality pressure persists, it could affect earnings durability, which the RQD rating already flags through its weak macro and flow pillars.

  • Key Question #1: Can HBCP sustain or expand its — operating margin and 10.6% ROIC against Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.47B and free cash flow of $44.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is HBCP's 9.8x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

HBCP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Home Bancorp Inc. (HBCP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to HBCP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

HBCP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $61.63?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON HBCP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on HBCP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $69.70 (+15.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

At 10.5x TTM earnings and a 9.18% FCF yield, the shares trade cheaply against reported free cash flow of $44.3M.

At 10.5x TTM earnings and a 9.18% FCF yield, the shares trade cheaply against reported free cash flow of $44.3M.. When you look under the hood at HBCP, Fundamental Cash Engine is 12/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 10.6% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (4/20) has been quietly accumulating below $74.50. My 12M target is $69.70.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@DeepValue_CFA Agree on the RQD 53/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $60.61 and keeping dry powder in case we test $56.37.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $46.06 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $60.61

Whale 13F flow scores just 5 of 20 and the news feed flags Q3 credit strain, leaving institutions unconvinced.

Fading this rally in HBCP at $60.61. Whale 13F flow scores just 5 of 20 and the news feed flags Q3 credit strain, leaving institutions unconvinced.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $60.61 (52-wk range $52.07–$74.50), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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