What is GVA's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for GVA.

Stock Ratings / Industrials / GVA / options

KRMN (45) ROAD (47) LOAR (56) KBR (64) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$128.91 +4.28% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $129.66

Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $5.46B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Granite Construction Incorporated (NYSE: GVA) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $128.91 (+4.28% 1D, market cap $5.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, GVA ranks #61 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GVA compare to KRMN and ROAD in the Industrials sector?

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Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), GVA carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 27.6x, gross margin of 16.1%, and ROIC of 13.8%. By comparison, KRMN (Karman Holdings Inc.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 8.8%, cap $5.29B) and ROAD (Construction Partners Inc.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 51.7x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $5.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KBR leads on earnings multiple (11.6x) while KBR leads on capital efficiency (17.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GVA?

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Per GVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000861459), Granite Construction Incorporated generated $4.42B in revenue (+10.4% YoY), $193.0M in net income, and $330.6M in free cash flow against $4.03B in total assets and $963.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $129.66 (+0.58%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 7.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GVA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GVA SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.35 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (64.9) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$107.73+1.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$109.73+1.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$111.67+15.4% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$128.91+1.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GVA Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, GVA faces multiple-compression risk if 27.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($115.75) or 200D SMA ($126.55) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($134.13) toward Bear Floor ($104.62).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GVA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GVA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±8.7%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (GVA)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for GVA.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating GVA & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on GVA
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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GVA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.27%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-11-03O $121.7H $128.9L $121.7C $128.9VOL 1.07M

RES: $119.5SUP: $103.8SMA50: $115.8SMA200: $126.6

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GVA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GVA Butterfly Map → + Track GVA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

21.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GVA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GVA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GVA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GVA)

Industrials Rank #61 of 486 ⚔️ KRMN vs GVA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (GVA vs. KRMN, ROAD, LOAR, KBR)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) ranks #61 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #138 by equity capitalization ($5.46B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KBR leads on earnings valuation at 11.6x trailing P/E, while KBR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 17.3% ROIC and 14.8% gross margin. GVA currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GVA ACTIVE Granite Construction Incorporated	C+	67/100	27.6x	16.1%	13.8%	+4.28%	$5.46B	Benchmark Subject
KRMN Karman Holdings Inc.	D	45/100	—	40.3%	8.8%	-2.05%	$5.29B	/krmn-vs-gva →
ROAD Construction Partners Inc.	D	47/100	51.7x	15.6%	6.9%	+7.58%	$5.15B	/road-vs-gva →
LOAR Loar Holdings Inc.	D+	56/100	—	52.7%	4.7%	+9.34%	$5.82B	/loar-vs-gva →
KBR KBR Inc.	C	64/100	11.6x	14.8%	17.3%	+2.56%	$4.88B	/kbr-vs-gva →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000861459 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) reported GAAP revenue of $4.42B (+10.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.01B , and +26.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $193.0M, operating cash flow of $468.9M, and free cash flow of $330.6M (+3.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, GVA closed FY2025 with $4.03B in total assets against $963.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.35, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$4.42B	$193.0M	$468.9M	$330.6M	$4.03B	$963.2M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$4.01B	$126.3M	$456.3M	$319.9M	$3.03B	$737.9M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$3.51B	$43.6M	$183.7M	$25.8M	$4.21B	$985.4M

3. GVA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does GVA compare to KRMN and ROAD in the Industrials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GVA?

Where is GVA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GVA last traded at $128.91 (+4.28% on volume of 955,564 shares), positioning the stock +11.37% above its 50-day simple moving average ($115.75) and +1.86% above its 200-day simple moving average ($126.55). Across its 52-week range of $97.26 to $162.08, GVA sits at the 48.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.7% ($117.69 to $140.13).

Direct Sub-Reports: GVA RQD Cockpit GVA 12M Forecast GVA Earnings & Move GVA Dividends & DRIP GVA Insiders & 13F GVA Whale Options GVA Profit Sankey GVA News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 67/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

GVA — Granite Construction Incorporated: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 67/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $128.91 (+4.28% 1D, market capitalization $5.46B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 13.8%, gross margin of 16.1%, operating margin of 6.4%, and free cash flow yield of 6.21%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 0.98x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.35, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.82x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) is listed on the NYSE and classified in the Industrials sector, Military/Government/Technical industry. The profile does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model. Per the market data, gross margin is 16.1%, operating margin 6.4%, and net margin 4.4%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) reported $4.42B in annual revenue (up from $4.01B in FY2024, +10.4% YoY) and $193.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($3.51B revenue, $43.6M net income) through FY2025, GVA scaled operating cash flow to $468.9M and free cash flow to $330.6M, backed by $4.03B in total assets against $963.2M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 67/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $97.26 – $162.08 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 27.6x trailing P/E and 14.4x EV/EBITDA against 6.4% operating margins and a 0.98x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream dependencies: — Downstream dependencies: — Sector correlations: — Second-order bottlenecks: — The only related item is the Stock Titan road-widening story in the news wire, which references public infrastructure work but does not establish a quantified linkage to GVA revenue.

Key Question #1: Can GVA sustain or expand its 6.4% operating margin and 13.8% ROIC against Military/Government/Technical peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $4.42B and free cash flow of $330.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $963.2M in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is GVA's 25.7x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.98x)?

GVA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GVA Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance UK • 21h ago

Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) stock price, news, quote and history

Yahoo Finance UK report covering Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 1d ago

Granite Construction Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy GVA?

StockInvest.us report covering Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Granite Construction Incorporated 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:GVA) 2026-10-29

Seeking Alpha report covering Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

3 Reasons We Love Granite Construction (GVA)

Yahoo Finance report covering Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Granite Construction: More EBITDA, Less Multiple, Still A Buy (NYSE:GVA)

Seeking Alpha report covering Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

A Washington road will widen from five lanes to eight; a pedestrian bridge will replace its railroad trestle.

Stock Titan report covering Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Granite Construction Q3 Earnings Call Highlights

Yahoo Finance report covering Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH ad-hoc-news.de • 1d ago

Argus cuts target to USD 107.00 for Granite Construction stock

ad-hoc-news.de report covering Granite Construction Incorporated (GVA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GVA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $128.91?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GVA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $160.71 (+30.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, the Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 16 / 20 with Altman Z 3.35 and Piotroski F 8/9, and Insider Conviction sco

Here is why I am bullish on GVA here at $123.62: Per the RQD rating, the Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 16 / 20 with Altman Z 3.35 and Piotroski F 8/9, and Insider Conviction scores 16 / 20.. Compare GVA's 6.4% operating margin and 13.8% ROIC against the rest of Military/Government/Technical. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $117.44 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 67/100 quality, though with 0.98 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $123.62 and keeping dry powder in case we test $114.97.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $102.60 (-17.0%)

Spot @ $123.62

Per the RQD rating, Macro Regime Fit scores only 9 / 20, and per the market data the stock trades at 27.6x trailing earnings.

Per the RQD rating, Macro Regime Fit scores only 9 / 20, and per the market data the stock trades at 27.6x trailing earnings.. Look at the math on GVA: paying 27.6x trailing P/E for 13.8% ROIC and 6.4% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Military/Government/Technical demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $108.79 before getting long.