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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / GPI / forecast
ABG (49) OPLN (63) SAH (56) RUSHA (63) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Group 1 Automotive Inc. (GPI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$260.80 +0.32% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $260.45

Group 1 Automotive Inc. (GPI) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.10B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on GPI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is GPI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Group 1 Automotive Inc. (NYSE: GPI) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $260.80 (+0.32% 1D, market cap $3.10B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GPI ranks #242 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does GPI compare to ABG and OPLN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), GPI carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.5x, gross margin of 16.0%, and ROIC of 21.0%. By comparison, ABG (Asbury Automotive Group Inc) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 7.3x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $3.58B) and OPLN (OPENLANE Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 26.6x, ROIC 9.5%, cap $4.73B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ABG leads on earnings multiple (7.3x) while GPI leads on capital efficiency (21.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GPI?
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Per GPI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001031203), Group 1 Automotive Inc. generated $22.57B in revenue (+13.2% YoY), $325.2M in net income, and $424.5M in free cash flow against $10.35B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (16% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $260.46 (-0.13%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 1.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510065
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk D
Cash (18)Whales (9)SEC (13)Macro (7)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.2% Base Target
$450 Bull$269 Base$210 Bear
📬 FREE GPI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GPI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GPI SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.9% FCF Margin ($424.5M FCF) & 16% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (57.5) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
57
Grade C$229.64+4.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
60
Grade C$239.28+1.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$243.88+6.9% Next Q
Current
65
Grade C$260.80+1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the GPI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, GPI faces multiple-compression risk if 9.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($254.45) or 200D SMA ($306.18) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($269.02) toward Bear Floor ($209.84).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GPI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GPI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your GPI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $260.80: 38.3 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $209.84
$8,046
$-1,954 (-19.5%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $269.02
$10,315
+$315 (+3.2%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $450.45
$17,272
+$7,272 (+72.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$28074%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$42369%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$23958%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (GPI Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
GPI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.97%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $249.5H $260.8L $249.5C $260.8VOL 200.8K
RES: $402.7SUP: $220.2SMA50: $254.5SMA200: $306.2
$404.5$355.8$307.0$258.3$209.5RES $402.7SUP $220.2$260.82026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GPI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GPI Butterfly Map → + Track GPI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-2.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GPI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GPI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GPI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GPI)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #242 of 1011 ⚔️ ABG vs GPI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (GPI vs. ABG, OPLN, SAH, RUSHA)

Industry: Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Group 1 Automotive Inc. (GPI) ranks #242 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #355 by equity capitalization ($3.10B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ABG leads on earnings valuation at 7.3x trailing P/E, while GPI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.0% ROIC and 16.0% gross margin. GPI currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
GPI ACTIVE
Group 1 Automotive Inc.
C 65/100 9.5x 16.0% 21.0% +0.32% $3.10B Benchmark Subject
ABG
Asbury Automotive Group Inc
D 49/100 7.3x 17.1% 14.0% -0.62% $3.58B /abg-vs-gpi →
OPLN
OPENLANE Inc.
C 63/100 26.6x — 9.5% +0.65% $4.73B /opln-vs-gpi →
SAH
Sonic Automotive Inc.
D+ 56/100 16.9x 15.7% 11.1% -0.60% $2.01B /sah-vs-gpi →
RUSHA
Rush Enterprises Inc. Cl A
C 63/100 19.1x 20.7% 13.7% -1.29% $5.08B /rusha-vs-gpi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001031203

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Group 1 Automotive Inc. (GPI) reported GAAP revenue of $22.57B (+13.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $19.93B , and +26.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $325.2M, operating cash flow of $694.5M, and free cash flow of $424.5M (+24.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, GPI closed FY2025 with $10.35B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $22.57B $325.2M $694.5M $424.5M $10.35B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $19.93B $498.1M $586.3M $341.2M $9.82B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $17.87B $601.6M $190.2M $190.2M — —

3. GPI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GPI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Group 1 Automotive Inc. (NYSE: GPI) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $260.80 (+0.32% 1D, market cap $3.10B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, GPI ranks #242 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GPI compare to ABG and OPLN in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), GPI carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.5x, gross margin of 16.0%, and ROIC of 21.0%. By comparison, ABG (Asbury Automotive Group Inc) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 7.3x, ROIC 14.0%, cap $3.58B) and OPLN (OPENLANE Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 26.6x, ROIC 9.5%, cap $4.73B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ABG leads on earnings multiple (7.3x) while GPI leads on capital efficiency (21.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GPI?

Per GPI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001031203), Group 1 Automotive Inc. generated $22.57B in revenue (+13.2% YoY), $325.2M in net income, and $424.5M in free cash flow against $10.35B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (16% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GPI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GPI last traded at $260.80 (+0.32% on volume of 212,661 shares), positioning the stock +2.50% above its 50-day simple moving average ($254.45) and -14.82% below its 200-day simple moving average ($306.18). Across its 52-week range of $224.65 to $429.00, GPI sits at the 17.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.9% ($234.98 to $286.62).

GPI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is GPI's 12-month stock price target?

Group 1 Automotive Inc. (GPI) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $269.02 (+3.2% from $260.80), with a bull-case target of $450.45 and a bear-case floor of $209.84.

Is GPI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates GPI C (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 65/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: GPI RQD Cockpit GPI 12M Forecast GPI Earnings & Move GPI Dividends & DRIP GPI Insiders & 13F GPI Whale Options GPI Profit Sankey GPI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 65/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

GPI — Group 1 Automotive Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:24:12Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, GPI scores 65 out of 100, earning a letter grade of C and the verdict "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20 (ROIC 21%; FCF yield 13.7%), Whale 13F Flow 9/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 18/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 7/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 13/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

The strongest pillars are cash generation and insider activity, which the rating treats as upside drivers. The weakest are macro regime fit and institutional flow, which indicate that the stock's behavior is more exposed to broader conditions and less clearly supported by large-holder accumulation. The forensic balance sheet is adequate rather than strong. For a prospective investor, the tradeoff described by the data is a low headline multiple and high free-cash-flow yield set against thin margins and sector sensitivity. This is an analytical framing, not a recommendation.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
259.97$3.1B9.583.227.280.83%1.0$224.65 - $42921%

Business

Group 1 Automotive Inc. is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector, within the Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations industry. Per the company profile, it has a market capitalization of $3.1B. The profile does not describe its customers or revenue mix. Per the market data, gross margin is 16%, operating margin 3.3%, and net margin 1.4%.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • RISK WATCH (RED): A Yahoo Finance headline states the stock fell as Q3 results squeezed margins.
  • CATALYST (GREEN): A Simply Wall St headline discusses whether earnings growth changes the investment case.
  • MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): StoneX reiterated a Buy rating with a $425 target; a MarketBeat item reports a lowered price target at JPMorgan Chase & Co.; a Yahoo Finance preview expects Q3 earnings to decline; and a GuruFocus item reports a 7.5% decline alongside a GF Score of 77/100.
  • Proprietary signals: None available in the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph.

The news flow is mixed, with a margin-pressure headline and a declining-earnings preview on one side and a reiterated Buy and a catalyst item on the other.

Open Questions

  • What are the reported EPS, debt, and FY 2023 cash figures, which are marked N/A or missing in the financials?
  • What drove the margin compression cited in the Q3 results headline, and how does it relate to the decline from FY 2023 operating income to FY 2025?
  • Which specific institutional and insider transactions underlie the whale-flow (9/20) and insider-conviction (18/20) pillar scores?
  • How much of the consensus price-target range (JPMorgan lowered; StoneX at $425) reflects expected earnings decline versus valuation?
  • What is the company's revenue mix and customer exposure, which the profile does not describe?

GPI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Group 1 Automotive Inc. (GPI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to GPI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

GPI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $260.80?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON GPI 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on GPI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $280.77 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is GPI (C • RQD 65/100) a Buy at $259.97?

Welcome to the GPI (Group 1 Automotive Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 65/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations. Bulls point to capital efficiency (21.0% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

MU MultipleCompression Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $207.98 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $259.97

Pump the brakes on GPI — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on GPI, but look at what you are paying: 9.5x trailing P/E with 16.0% gross margins. Unless Group 1 Automotive Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $319.76 (+23.0%)
Spot @ $259.97

GPI cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on GPI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $259.97 (52-wk range $224.65 - $429.00), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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