What is FSBW's 12-month stock price target?

FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $45.76 (+3.6% from $44.17), with a bull-case target of $54 and a bear-case floor of $35.69.

Stock Ratings / Financials / FSBW / forecast

TSBK (69) NECB (71) PBFS (55) FBLA (42) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

Q: Is FSBW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates FSBW C+ (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 66/100.

$44.17 +0.32% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.11

FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $346.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FSBW Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FSBW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, FS Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: FSBW) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $44.17 (+0.32% 1D, market cap $346.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, FSBW ranks #219 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FSBW compare to TSBK and NECB in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Banks), FSBW carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.8%. By comparison, TSBK (Timberland Bancorp Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 12.6x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $364.1M) and NECB (NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 9.0x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $398.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NECB leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while NECB leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FSBW?

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Per FSBW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001530249), FS Bancorp Inc. generated $1.34B in revenue (+5.5% YoY), $33.3M in net income, and $51.9M in free cash flow against $3.20B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.11 (-0.13%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 3.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FSBW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.6%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FSBW SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.9% FCF Margin ($51.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B+$44.65+0.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$44.85-2.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$43.70+1.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$44.17+1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B+ (74) → C+ (66)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FSBW Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, FSBW faces multiple-compression risk if 10.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($43.87) or 200D SMA ($42.03) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($45.76) toward Bear Floor ($35.69).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FSBW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FSBW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your FSBW Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $44.17: 226.4 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $35.69

$8,080

$-1,920 (-19.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $45.76

$10,360

+$360 (+3.6%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $54.00

$12,225

+$2,225 (+22.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$48	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$51	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$41	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FSBW Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

FSBW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.60%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $44.34H $44.34L $44.03C $44.17VOL 22.7K

RES: $45.20SUP: $42.21SMA50: $43.87SMA200: $42.03

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FSBW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FSBW Butterfly Map → + Track FSBW →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

-0.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FSBW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FSBW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FSBW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FSBW)

Financials Rank #219 of 1097 ⚔️ TSBK vs FSBW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FSBW vs. TSBK, NECB, PBFS, FBLA)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) ranks #219 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #780 by equity capitalization ($346.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NECB leads on earnings valuation at 9.0x trailing P/E, while NECB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. NECB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with FSBW at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FSBW ACTIVE FS Bancorp Inc.	C+	66/100	10.5x	—	10.8%	+0.32%	$346.2M	Benchmark Subject
TSBK Timberland Bancorp Inc.	C+	69/100	12.6x	—	10.9%	+2.03%	$364.1M	/tsbk-vs-fsbw →
NECB NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.	B-	71/100	9.0x	—	12.6%	+1.63%	$398.0M	/necb-vs-fsbw →
PBFS Pioneer Bancorp Inc.	D+	55/100	22.2x	—	6.3%	+2.33%	$447.9M	/pbfs-vs-fsbw →
FBLA FB Bancorp Inc.	D-	42/100	—	—	0.4%	+0.36%	$266.3M	/fbla-vs-fsbw →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001530249 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) reported GAAP revenue of $1.34B (+5.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.27B , and +29012.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $33.3M, operating cash flow of $72.3M, and free cash flow of $51.9M (+5.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, FSBW closed FY2025 with $3.20B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.34B	$33.3M	$72.3M	$51.9M	$3.20B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.27B	$35.0M	$50.8M	$49.2M	$3.03B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$4.6M	$36.1M	$77.7M	$77.7M	—	—

3. FSBW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FSBW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does FSBW compare to TSBK and NECB in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FSBW?

Where is FSBW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FSBW last traded at $44.17 (+0.32% on volume of 26,830 shares), positioning the stock +0.68% above its 50-day simple moving average ($43.87) and +5.09% above its 200-day simple moving average ($42.03). Across its 52-week range of $36.66 to $45.85, FSBW sits at the 81.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.6% ($42.14 to $46.20).

Direct Sub-Reports: FSBW RQD Cockpit FSBW 12M Forecast FSBW Earnings & Move FSBW Dividends & DRIP FSBW Insiders & 13F FSBW Whale Options FSBW Profit Sankey FSBW News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 66/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FSBW — FS Bancorp Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 66/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $44.17 (+0.32% 1D, market capitalization $346.2M).

Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 14.90%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Banks industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $346.2M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.8% (free cash flow yield of 14.9%). Within the Banks peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) reported $1.34B in annual revenue (up from $1.27B in FY2024, +5.5% YoY) and $33.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.6M revenue, $36.1M net income) through FY2025, FSBW scaled operating cash flow to $72.3M and free cash flow to $51.9M, backed by $3.20B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 66/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 14.90% and institutional whale pillar of 10/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $36.66 – $45.85 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 10.5x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The supply chain is NONE, with no upstream or downstream links and no proprietary signals recorded. Sector: Financials; industry: Banks. The source does not establish sector correlations or second-order bottlenecks. The one ripple the source does point to is the merger-cost theme in the news wire, which a careful investor should trace to its counterparties, as the source does not name them.

Key Question #1: Can FSBW sustain or expand its — operating margin and 10.8% ROIC against Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.34B and free cash flow of $51.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is FSBW's 9.8x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

FSBW Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FSBW Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 23h ago

FS Bancorp (FSBW) Q3 Earnings Reveal A Sharp Profit Squeeze

Yahoo Finance report covering FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

FS Bancorp, Inc. Estimates – NASDAQ:FSBW

TradingView report covering FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

FS Bancorp (FSBW) Q3 Earnings Lag Estimates

Yahoo Finance report covering FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 1d ago

FS Bancorp Reports Lower Q3 Earnings Amid Merger Costs

The Globe and Mail report covering FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

FS Bancorp's CEO now sits on the boards of both the company and its bank.

Stock Titan report covering FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

FS Bancorp (FSBW) Stock Shrugs Off Q3 Earnings Profit Squeeze

Simply Wall St report covering FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 1d ago

FS Bancorp appoints CEO Matthew Mullet to boards

The Globe and Mail report covering FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

FS Bancorp: Q3 Earnings Snapshot

Yahoo Finance report covering FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FSBW Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $44.17?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FSBW 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $55.04 (+25.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (16/20) and a 14.9% FCF yield with a 9.8 forward P/E signal strong cash generation at a low multiple.

Don't sleep on FSBW's setup in Financials. Insider conviction (16/20) and a 14.9% FCF yield with a 9.8 forward P/E signal strong cash generation at a low multiple.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (66/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@AlphaFlow_Cap Agree on the RQD 66/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $44.03 and keeping dry powder in case we test $40.95.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $34.78 (-21.0%)

Spot @ $44.03

Net income and FCF have declined across FY 2023–FY 2025 while Q3 earnings reportedly lagged estimates amid merger costs.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short FSBW above $44.03. Net income and FCF have declined across FY 2023–FY 2025 while Q3 earnings reportedly lagged estimates amid merger costs.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20) and FCF yield (14.9%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $45.85.