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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / FOSL / forecast
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Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$6.81 +2.56% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.83

Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $392.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FOSL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FOSL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Fossil Group Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $6.81 (+2.56% 1D, market cap $392.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FOSL ranks #775 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FOSL compare to ELA and MOV in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Consumer Specialties), FOSL carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 56.1%, and ROIC of -7.2%. By comparison, ELA (Envela Corporation) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 20.7%, cap $290.8M) and MOV (Movado Group Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 26.6x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $696.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ELA leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while ELA leads on capital efficiency (20.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FOSL?
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Per FOSL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0000883569), Fossil Group Inc. generated $1.00B in revenue (-12.3% YoY), $0 in net income, and -$60.5M in free cash flow against $689.3M in total assets and $201.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.83 (+0.27%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510036
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (4)Whales (13)SEC (10)Macro (6)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.8% Base Target
$8 Bull$6 Base$5 Bear
📬 FREE FOSL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FOSL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FOSL SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (36% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$7.15-4.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$6.81-2.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
39
Grade E$6.66+2.3% Next Q
Current
36
Grade D-$6.81-8.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FOSL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FOSL currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.12) and Max Pain ($7.15) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.76.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FOSL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FOSL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 2, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your FOSL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $6.81: 1468.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $4.79
$7,034
$-2,966 (-29.7%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $6.14
$9,016
$-984 (-9.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $7.76
$11,395
+$1,395 (+14.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$674%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$769%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$558%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FOSL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of FOSL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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FOSL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +56.91%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $6.85H $6.85L $6.64C $6.81VOL 579.8K
RES: $7.80SUP: $4.13SMA50: $6.12SMA200: $4.85
$7.67$6.50$5.33$4.17$3.00RES $7.80SUP $4.13$6.812026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FOSL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FOSL Butterfly Map → + Track FOSL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -12.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FOSL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FOSL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FOSL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FOSL)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #775 of 1009 ⚔️ ELA vs FOSL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (FOSL vs. ELA, MOV, BRLT, VSTS)

Industry: Consumer Specialties (11 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) ranks #775 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #614 by equity capitalization ($392.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ELA leads on earnings valuation at 20.2x trailing P/E, while ELA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.7% ROIC and 22.4% gross margin. MOV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with FOSL at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FOSL ACTIVE
Fossil Group Inc.
D- 36/100 — 56.1% -7.2% +2.56% $392.7M Benchmark Subject
ELA
Envela Corporation
D+ 55/100 20.2x 22.4% 20.7% +0.45% $290.8M /ela-vs-fosl →
MOV
Movado Group Inc.
C 63/100 26.6x 54.2% 8.5% +2.08% $696.4M /mov-vs-fosl →
BRLT
Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A)
D+ 52/100 — 57.5% -35.0% -4.46% $159.9M /brlt-vs-fosl →
VSTS
Vestis Corporation
D+ 53/100 — — 2.6% -1.01% $1.96B /vsts-vs-fosl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-03 • CIK 0000883569 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03), Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) reported GAAP revenue of $1.00B (-12.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.14B , and -28.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of -$57.9M, and free cash flow of -$60.5M (-251.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, FOSL closed FY2025 with $689.3M in total assets against $201.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-01-03 $1.00B $0 -$57.9M -$60.5M $689.3M $201.1M
FY2024 (FY) 2025-12-28 $1.14B $0 $46.7M $39.9M $763.6M $165.9M
FY2023 (FY) 2024-12-30 $1.41B $0 -$59.5M -$59.5M — —

3. FOSL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FOSL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Fossil Group Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $6.81 (+2.56% 1D, market cap $392.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, FOSL ranks #775 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FOSL compare to ELA and MOV in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Consumer Specialties), FOSL carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 56.1%, and ROIC of -7.2%. By comparison, ELA (Envela Corporation) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 20.2x, ROIC 20.7%, cap $290.8M) and MOV (Movado Group Inc.) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 26.6x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $696.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ELA leads on earnings multiple (20.2x) while ELA leads on capital efficiency (20.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FOSL?

Per FOSL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-03, CIK 0000883569), Fossil Group Inc. generated $1.00B in revenue (-12.3% YoY), $0 in net income, and -$60.5M in free cash flow against $689.3M in total assets and $201.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FOSL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FOSL last traded at $6.81 (+2.56% on volume of 602,219 shares), positioning the stock +11.27% above its 50-day simple moving average ($6.12) and +40.41% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.85). Across its 52-week range of $1.70 to $7.39, FOSL sits at the 89.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.0% ($6.13 to $7.49).

Direct Sub-Reports: FOSL RQD Cockpit FOSL 12M Forecast FOSL Earnings & Move FOSL Dividends & DRIP FOSL Insiders & 13F FOSL Whale Options FOSL Profit Sankey FOSL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 36/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FOSL — Fossil Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-01-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 36/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $6.81 (+2.56% 1D, market capitalization $392.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -7.2%, gross margin of 56.1%, operating margin of -1.9%, and free cash flow yield of -14.93%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.96x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Fossil Group Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Consumer Specialties industry. — for detailed product and customer description.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-01-03), Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) reported $1.00B in annual revenue (up from $1.14B in FY2024, -12.3% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.41B revenue, $0 net income) through FY2025, FOSL scaled operating cash flow to -$57.9M and free cash flow to -$60.5M, backed by $689.3M in total assets against $201.1M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 36/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -14.93% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.70 – $7.39 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -1.9% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector and industry classification is Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Specialties; no sector correlation data is provided.

  • Key Question #1: Can FOSL sustain or expand its -1.9% operating margin and -7.2% ROIC against Consumer Specialties peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.00B and free cash flow of -$60.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $201.1M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is FOSL's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

FOSL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Fossil Group Inc. (FOSL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FOSL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FOSL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $6.81?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FOSL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FOSL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $7.97 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation and options positioning score 15 of 20 in the RQD rating, the strongest pillar in the data.

Long FOSL at $6.64 targeting $7.97. Institutional accumulation and options positioning score 15 of 20 in the RQD rating, the strongest pillar in the data.. Institutional whale score is 13/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $1.70 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 13/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $6.64 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.98 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $6.64

ROIC of -7.2% and a FCF yield of -14.93% leave the cash engine scoring just 4 of 20 in the RQD rating.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short FOSL above $6.64. ROIC of -7.2% and a FCF yield of -14.93% leave the cash engine scoring just 4 of 20 in the RQD rating.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20) and FCF yield (-14.93%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $7.39.

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