Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$15.64 -0.82% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.59

Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $926.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FMNB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Farmers National Banc Corp. (NASDAQ: FMNB) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $15.64 (-0.82% 1D, market cap $926.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FMNB ranks #215 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FMNB compare to FRBT and THFF in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FMNB carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.2%. By comparison, FRBT (Forbright Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $922.4M) and THFF (First Financial Corporation) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 11.6x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $910.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, THFF leads on earnings multiple (11.6x) while THFF leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FMNB?
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Per FMNB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000709337), Farmers National Banc Corp. generated $279.9M in revenue (+3.9% YoY), $54.6M in net income, and $52.2M in free cash flow against $5.25B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.59 (-0.34%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 18.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510066
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (13)SEC (13)Macro (12)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target
$19 Bull$16 Base$13 Bear
📬 FREE FMNB RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FMNB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FMNB SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (20% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (54.6) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
58
Grade C$15.00+3.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
61
Grade C$15.47+0.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
63
Grade C+$15.52+0.8% Next Q
Current
66
Grade C+$15.64+1.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FMNB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, FMNB faces multiple-compression risk if 17.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($15.48) or 200D SMA ($14.42) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($16.20) toward Bear Floor ($12.64).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FMNB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FMNB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

FMNB Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (FMNB)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on FMNB. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FMNB Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
FMNB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +12.03%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $15.77H $15.77L $15.64C $15.64VOL 349.6K
RES: $15.90SUP: $14.35SMA50: $15.48SMA200: $14.42
$16.68$15.77$14.85$13.94$13.03RES $15.90SUP $14.35$15.642026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FMNB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
10.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FMNB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FMNB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FMNB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FMNB)

Financials Rank #215 of 1096 ⚔️ FRBT vs FMNB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FMNB vs. FRBT, THFF, TRST, HAFC)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB) ranks #215 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #567 by equity capitalization ($926.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, THFF leads on earnings valuation at 11.6x trailing P/E, while THFF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.2% ROIC and — gross margin. HAFC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with FMNB at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FMNB ACTIVE
Farmers National Banc Corp.
C+ 66/100 17.1x — 11.2% -0.82% $926.6M Benchmark Subject
FRBT
Forbright Inc. (Class A)
D 50/100 — — — -1.41% $922.4M /frbt-vs-fmnb →
THFF
First Financial Corporation
C+ 66/100 11.6x — 12.2% -1.23% $910.3M /thff-vs-fmnb →
TRST
TrustCo Bank Corp NY
C- 61/100 15.8x — 8.9% -1.07% $958.0M /trst-vs-fmnb →
HAFC
Hanmi Financial Corporation
B 75/100 12.9x — 7.5% -1.75% $965.1M /hafc-vs-fmnb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000709337

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB) reported GAAP revenue of $279.9M (+3.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $269.4M , and +9.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $54.6M, operating cash flow of $60.0M, and free cash flow of $52.2M (-5.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, FMNB closed FY2025 with $5.25B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $279.9M $54.6M $60.0M $52.2M $5.25B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $269.4M $45.9M $66.6M $54.9M $5.12B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $255.2M $49.9M $62.9M $62.9M — —

3. FMNB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FMNB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Farmers National Banc Corp. (NASDAQ: FMNB) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $15.64 (-0.82% 1D, market cap $926.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FMNB ranks #215 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FMNB compare to FRBT and THFF in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), FMNB carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 17.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.2%. By comparison, FRBT (Forbright Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $922.4M) and THFF (First Financial Corporation) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 11.6x, ROIC 12.2%, cap $910.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, THFF leads on earnings multiple (11.6x) while THFF leads on capital efficiency (12.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FMNB?

Per FMNB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000709337), Farmers National Banc Corp. generated $279.9M in revenue (+3.9% YoY), $54.6M in net income, and $52.2M in free cash flow against $5.25B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FMNB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FMNB last traded at $15.64 (-0.82% on volume of 349,550 shares), positioning the stock +1.03% above its 50-day simple moving average ($15.48) and +8.46% above its 200-day simple moving average ($14.42). Across its 52-week range of $12.12 to $16.46, FMNB sits at the 81.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.0% ($15.01 to $16.27).

FMNB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are FMNB insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies FMNB leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 66/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

FMNB — Farmers National Banc Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:31:44Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, FMNB scores 67 out of 100, earning a C+ letter grade and the verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 12 of 20 (ROIC 11.2%; FCF yield 5.58%), Whale/13F Flow at 13 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 16 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 13 of 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 13 of 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 5/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor, the strongest pillar is Insider Conviction, the weakest relative to its ceiling is Fundamental Cash Engine, and the middle pillars sit at roughly two-thirds of their maximum. The cash-engine score reflects an 11.2% ROIC and a 5.58% FCF yield, which is a reasonable but not exceptional cash-return profile per the rating. The forensic pillar's Altman Z of 2.5 and Piotroski F of 5 out of 9 describe a balance sheet that the rating treats as adequate rather than pristine. Upside drivers the rating points to are the insider and institutional signals; valuation tradeoffs are visible in the trailing P/E of 17.1 versus a forward P/E of 15.9, implying the market expects earnings to rise; and the Beta of 1.0 means the stock is expected to move broadly with the market rather than amplify it. The "watch for breakout" verdict signals that the rating sees the setup as neutral today with a potential shift contingent on the flow signals strengthening.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$279.9M$0.0M$54.6MN/A$52.2MN/AN/A
FY 2024$269.4M$0.0M$45.9MN/A$54.9MN/AN/A
FY 2023$255.2M$0.0M$49.9MN/A$62.9MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $255.2M in FY 2023 to $279.9M in FY 2025, while net income moved from $49.9M to $54.6M over the same span, with FY 2024 at $45.9M. Free cash flow declined from $62.9M in FY 2023 to $52.2M in FY 2025. Per market data, the net margin is 19.5%, and ROIC is 11.2%. The per-rating Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 5 out of 9. The per-rating Debt/Equity is 0.5. Gross and operating margin are reported as 0% in the market data, which the source does not further explain.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, five items reference FMNB. Three Yahoo Finance, TradingView, and Seeking Alpha items on earnings and market coverage are tagged YELLOW, and a Stock Titan item on a long profitability streak is tagged YELLOW. A MarketBeat item reporting a downgrade from Wall Street Zen is tagged RED under the "RISK WATCH" label, making it the sole risk-flagged catalyst in the feed. The earnings-related headlines cite a Q3 result surpassing estimates, but the source provides no figures for that quarter. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as "NONE," with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the reported cash and debt balances, since the financials show them as N/A for every period?
  • What is the EPS for each fiscal year, given the reported EPS is N/A across all periods?
  • What drove the reported 0% gross and operating margins, and do these reflect the reporting format of a bank?
  • What were the specific Q3 earnings figures underlying the headline that results surpassed estimates?
  • What is the basis for the RED-flagged downgrade from Wall Street Zen, and does it reflect fundamental or quantitative factors?

FMNB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Farmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FMNB Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FMNB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $15.64?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FMNB 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FMNB:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $17.03 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is FMNB (C+ • RQD 67/100) a Buy at $15.77?

Welcome to the FMNB (Farmers National Banc Corp.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 67/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Major Banks. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.99 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $15.77

Pump the brakes on FMNB — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on FMNB, but look at what you are paying: 17.1x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Farmers National Banc Corp. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $19.24 (+22.0%)
Spot @ $15.77

FMNB cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on FMNB, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Banks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $15.77 (52-wk range $12.12 - $16.46), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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