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FutureFuel Corp. (FF) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$5.78 +1.94% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.79

FutureFuel Corp. (FF) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $248.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on FF Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, FutureFuel Corp. (NYSE: FF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $5.78 (+1.94% 1D, market cap $248.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, FF ranks #201 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FF compare to ALTO and GEVO in the Materials sector?
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Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), FF carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ALTO (Alto Ingredients Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.0%, cap $283.1M) and GEVO (Gevo Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.9%, cap $309.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FF leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while OEC leads on capital efficiency (2.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FF?
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Per FF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001337298), FutureFuel Corp. generated $95.7M in revenue (-60.7% YoY), -$49.4M in net income, and -$46.0M in free cash flow against $200.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.79 (+0.16%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510039
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Cash (7)Whales (13)SEC (7)Macro (9)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.5% Base Target
$7 Bull$5 Base$4 Bear
📬 FREE FF RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FF SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (33% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+9/20 pts (23% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 69% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 58.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
31
Grade E$5.21+5.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
34
Grade E$5.48+6.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
36
Grade E$5.83-0.9% Next Q
Current
39
Grade D-$5.78-7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (31) → D- (39)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FF Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FF currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.39) and Max Pain ($6.07) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $7.34.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMBULLISH MOMENTUM
58.430 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.84>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
2 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE69% OF RANGE
L: $3$5.78H: $7
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 7 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on FF

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (35)

-35.0% ROIC with -30.0% gross margin and -18.42% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (35)

Altman-Z 3.84 and Piotroski 2/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (42)

16/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like FF
  • ✓Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FF)

  • ✓Walkthrough of FF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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FF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.96%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $5.69H $5.78L $5.67C $5.78VOL 213.0K
RES: $6.02SUP: $5.21SMA50: $5.39SMA200: $4.60
$7.21$6.29$5.36$4.44$3.51RES $6.02SUP $5.21$5.782026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FF Butterfly Map → + Track FF →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -60.7% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FF today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FF)

Materials Rank #201 of 270 ⚔️ ALTO vs FF Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (FF vs. ALTO, GEVO, ASPI, OEC)

Industry: Major Chemicals (67 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, FutureFuel Corp. (FF) ranks #201 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #204 by equity capitalization ($248.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FF leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while OEC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.2% ROIC and 19.9% gross margin. ALTO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with FF at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FF ACTIVE
FutureFuel Corp.
D- 39/100 — -30.0% -35.0% +1.94% $248.7M Benchmark Subject
ALTO
Alto Ingredients Inc.
D 46/100 — 3.8% 2.0% -4.11% $283.1M /alto-vs-ff →
GEVO
Gevo Inc.
E 26/100 — — -2.9% -6.40% $309.0M /gevo-vs-ff →
ASPI
ASP Isotopes Inc.
E 21/100 — 14.3% -35.0% -3.96% $309.7M /aspi-vs-ff →
OEC
Orion S.A.
D- 39/100 — 19.9% 2.2% +0.71% $316.5M /oec-vs-ff →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001337298 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), FutureFuel Corp. (FF) reported GAAP revenue of $95.7M (-60.7% vs. FY2024 revenue of $243.3M , and -74.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$49.4M, operating cash flow of -$28.7M, and free cash flow of -$46.0M (-553.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, FF closed FY2025 with $200.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.84, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $95.7M -$49.4M -$28.7M -$46.0M $200.3M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $243.3M $15.5M $24.8M $10.1M $247.7M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $368.3M $37.4M $21.3M $21.3M — —

3. FF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, FutureFuel Corp. (NYSE: FF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $5.78 (+1.94% 1D, market cap $248.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, FF ranks #201 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FF compare to ALTO and GEVO in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Major Chemicals), FF carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ALTO (Alto Ingredients Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.0%, cap $283.1M) and GEVO (Gevo Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.9%, cap $309.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FF leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while OEC leads on capital efficiency (2.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FF?

Per FF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001337298), FutureFuel Corp. generated $95.7M in revenue (-60.7% YoY), -$49.4M in net income, and -$46.0M in free cash flow against $200.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FF last traded at $5.78 (+1.94% on volume of 457,722 shares), positioning the stock +7.24% above its 50-day simple moving average ($5.39) and +25.65% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.60). Across its 52-week range of $3.09 to $6.99, FF sits at the 69.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.7% ($5.33 to $6.23).

Direct Sub-Reports: FF RQD Cockpit FF 12M Forecast FF Earnings & Move FF Dividends & DRIP FF Insiders & 13F FF Whale Options FF Profit Sankey FF News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 39/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FF — FutureFuel Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

FutureFuel Corp. (FF) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 39/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $5.78 (+1.94% 1D, market capitalization $248.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of -30.0%, operating margin of -55.3%, and free cash flow yield of -18.42%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (7/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.84, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

FutureFuel Corp. (FF) is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Materials sector, Major Chemicals industry, ..2B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), FutureFuel Corp. (FF) reported $95.7M in annual revenue (up from $243.3M in FY2024, -60.7% YoY) and -$49.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($368.3M revenue, $37.4M net income) through FY2025, FF scaled operating cash flow to -$28.7M and free cash flow to -$46.0M, backed by $200.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 39/100): Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -18.42% and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.09 – $6.99 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -55.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Major Chemicals (Materials), FF carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of -30.0%.

  • Key Question #1: Can FF sustain or expand its -55.3% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Major Chemicals peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $95.7M and free cash flow of -$46.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is FF's equity valuation to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

FF Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for FutureFuel Corp. (FF) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FF Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FF Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $5.78?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FF 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FF:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $7.31 (+28.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Whale 13F Flow scores 13 / 20, the strongest pillar, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning.

The street is overcomplicating FutureFuel Corp. (FF). Whale 13F Flow scores 13 / 20, the strongest pillar, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning.. With an RQD score of 39/100 (D-) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 7/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $6.12.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Shorting a 13/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $5.67 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Materials.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $4.54 (-19.9%)
Spot @ $5.67

FCF yield of -18.42% and ROIC of -35% show the cash engine is consuming capital rather than generating it.

I respect the product at FutureFuel Corp., but the stock at $5.67 is a different story. FCF yield of -18.42% and ROIC of -35% show the cash engine is consuming capital rather than generating it.. FCF yield is -18.42% and RQD sits at 39/100 (D-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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