4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-03, 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: FDMT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $11.90 (-6.89% 1D, market cap $657.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, FDMT ranks #391 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), FDMT carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -28.3%. By comparison, SLDB (Solid Biosciences Inc.) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $664.8M) and SLBT (SL Science Holding Limited) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $672.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FDMT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while FDMT leads on capital efficiency (-28.3% ROIC).
Per FDMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001650648), 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. generated $85.2M in revenue (+230194.6% YoY), -$140.1M in net income, and -$109.6M in free cash flow against $566.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
Altman Z-Score 5.17 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9
FRED Regime × Technicals: 50% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
While FDMT currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($13.58) and Max Pain ($12.50) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.78.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) dropped -6.89% to $11.90, trading at 50% of its 52-week range ($6.96 – $16.93). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-28% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Seeking Alpha report covering 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
GuruFocus report covering 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Globe and Mail report covering 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance UK report covering 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
HC Wainwright & Co. analyst Matthew Caufield reiterates 4D Molecular Therapeutics (NASDAQ:FDMT) with a Buy and maintains $36 price target.
Recently published Cystic Fibrosis Market Insights report includes a comprehensive understanding of current treatment practices, cystic fibrosis emerging drugs, market share of individual therapies, and current and forec
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FDMT today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FDMT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) ranks #391 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #403 by equity capitalization ($657.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FDMT leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while FDMT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -28.3% ROIC and — gross margin. SLBT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 45/100 (D) compared with FDMT at 44/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDMT
ACTIVE
4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. | D | 44/100 | — | — | -28.3% | -6.89% | $657.4M | Benchmark Subject |
| SLDB Solid Biosciences Inc. | E | 26/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -2.97% | $664.8M | /sldb-vs-fdmt → |
| SLBT SL Science Holding Limited | D | 45/100 | — | — | — | +2.56% | $672.9M | /slbt-vs-fdmt → |
| CADL Candel Therapeutics Inc. | E | 33/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -3.70% | $637.4M | /cadl-vs-fdmt → |
| AURA Aura Biosciences Inc. | E | 29/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -2.46% | $636.7M | /aura-vs-fdmt → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) reported GAAP revenue of $85.2M (+230194.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $37.0K , and +311.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$140.1M, operating cash flow of -$109.1M, and free cash flow of -$109.6M (+20.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, FDMT closed FY2025 with $566.7M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 5.17, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $85.2M | -$140.1M | -$109.1M | -$109.6M | $566.7M | $0 |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $37.0K | -$160.9M | -$134.6M | -$138.4M | $560.4M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $20.7M | -$100.8M | -$75.8M | -$75.8M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-03, 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: FDMT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $11.90 (-6.89% 1D, market cap $657.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, FDMT ranks #391 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), FDMT carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -28.3%. By comparison, SLDB (Solid Biosciences Inc.) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $664.8M) and SLBT (SL Science Holding Limited) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $672.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FDMT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while FDMT leads on capital efficiency (-28.3% ROIC).
Per FDMT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001650648), 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. generated $85.2M in revenue (+230194.6% YoY), -$140.1M in net income, and -$109.6M in free cash flow against $566.7M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
FDMT last traded at $11.90 (-6.89% on volume of 683,520 shares), positioning the stock -12.37% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.58) and +8.97% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.92). Across its 52-week range of $6.96 to $16.93, FDMT sits at the 49.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($10.41 to $13.39).
Why FDMT Stock dropped -6.89% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-28% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Per the Roarable RQD rating, FDMT scores 45 out of 100, earning a letter grade of D and the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:
For a prospective investor, the picture is a company with a reasonable balance sheet funding a deeply loss-making operation. Upside drivers are the two pivotal readouts for 4D-150 that the news wire says are expected in 2027. Valuation is difficult to anchor because operating margin is -60% and P/E is not available in source data. The weak insider and cash-flow pillars point to distribution risk, so the score argues for caution rather than accumulation on current evidence.
Per the profile, 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. The source data does not describe its customers or detailed product lines beyond the news references to 4D-150, a gene therapy targeting wet AMD. Revenue in FY 2025 was $85.2M per the SEC financials, though the source data does not break down how that revenue is generated.
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $85.2M | $-159.5M | $-140.1M | N/A | $-109.6M | $60.2M | $0.0M |
| FY 2024 | $0.0M | $-187.8M | $-160.9M | N/A | $-138.4M | $149.3M | N/A |
| FY 2023 | $20.7M | $-112.9M | $-100.8M | N/A | $-75.8M | N/A | N/A |
Per the market data, gross margin is 0%, operating margin is -60%, and net margin is -60%, with ROIC at -28.3%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 5.17 and the Piotroski F-Score is 5/9. Per the SEC financials, cash declined from $149.3M in FY 2024 to $60.2M in FY 2025 against zero reported debt in FY 2025, which indicates the balance sheet is funding losses from reserves.
Per the recent news wire, the principal catalysts are:
Risk watch items are the insider selling and the cash decline. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, there are no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals, so no butterfly-derived catalysts are available.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Seeking Alpha report covering 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Investing.com report covering 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
GuruFocus report covering 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingView report covering 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Globe and Mail report covering 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance UK report covering 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. (FDMT) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Welcome to the FDMT (4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 45/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on FDMT, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on FDMT, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $12.78 (52-wk range $6.96 - $16.93), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.
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