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Stock Ratings / Health Care / FATE / earnings
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Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$2.01 -3.36% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.99

Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $249.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is FATE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Fate Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: FATE) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $2.01 (-3.36% 1D, market cap $249.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, FATE ranks #596 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does FATE compare to LCTX and CABA in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), FATE carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, LCTX (Lineage Cell Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $252.9M) and CABA (Cabaletta Bio Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $256.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FATE leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while FATE leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FATE?
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Per FATE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001434316), Fate Therapeutics Inc. generated $6.6M in revenue (-51.2% YoY), -$136.3M in net income, and -$112.0M in free cash flow against $318.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.99 (-0.79%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510035
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (6)Whales (8)SEC (7)Macro (11)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.4% Base Target
$3 Bull$2 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE FATE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FATE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FATE SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (31% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 46% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
27
Grade E$2.00+3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
30
Grade E$2.06+0.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
32
Grade E$2.07-2.9% Next Q
Current
35
Grade D-$2.01-8.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (27) → D- (35)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FATE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While FATE currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.28) and Max Pain ($2.11) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.39.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FATE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FATE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.25 Expected Swing
$1.76 (-12.5%)Spot $2.01$2.26 (+12.5%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

FATE Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 35/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: -51.2%

Model Bullish Setup (35/100)Model Risk Weight (65/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$6.6M-$136.3M-$112.0M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$13.6M-$186.3M-$123.6M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$63.5M-$160.9M-$132.3M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FATE)

  • ✓Walkthrough of FATE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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FATE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +11.67%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $2.17H $2.17L $2.01C $2.01VOL 1.06M
RES: $2.47SUP: $1.61SMA50: $2.28SMA200: $1.97
$3.37$2.78$2.18$1.59$1.00RES $2.47SUP $1.61$2.012026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FATE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FATE Butterfly Map → + Track FATE →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -51.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FATE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FATE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FATE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FATE)

Health Care Rank #596 of 1015 ⚔️ LCTX vs FATE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (FATE vs. LCTX, CABA, LXEO, OCGN)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) ranks #596 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #541 by equity capitalization ($249.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FATE leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while FATE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. FATE currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
FATE ACTIVE
Fate Therapeutics Inc.
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% -3.36% $249.2M Benchmark Subject
LCTX
Lineage Cell Therapeutics Inc.
E 20/100 — — -35.0% +1.00% $252.9M /lctx-vs-fate →
CABA
Cabaletta Bio Inc.
E 33/100 — — -35.0% -5.30% $256.0M /caba-vs-fate →
LXEO
Lexeo Therapeutics Inc.
E 33/100 — — -35.0% -2.55% $257.6M /lxeo-vs-fate →
OCGN
Ocugen Inc.
E 25/100 — — -35.0% +3.13% $238.3M /ocgn-vs-fate →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001434316 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) reported GAAP revenue of $6.6M (-51.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $13.6M , and -89.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$136.3M, operating cash flow of -$106.1M, and free cash flow of -$112.0M (+9.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, FATE closed FY2025 with $318.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $6.6M -$136.3M -$106.1M -$112.0M $318.9M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $13.6M -$186.3M -$122.9M -$123.6M $440.7M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $63.5M -$160.9M -$132.3M -$132.3M — —

3. FATE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FATE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Fate Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: FATE) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $2.01 (-3.36% 1D, market cap $249.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, FATE ranks #596 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FATE compare to LCTX and CABA in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), FATE carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, LCTX (Lineage Cell Therapeutics Inc.) holds a E grade (20/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $252.9M) and CABA (Cabaletta Bio Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $256.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FATE leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while FATE leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FATE?

Per FATE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001434316), Fate Therapeutics Inc. generated $6.6M in revenue (-51.2% YoY), -$136.3M in net income, and -$112.0M in free cash flow against $318.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FATE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FATE last traded at $2.01 (-3.36% on volume of 1,266,927 shares), positioning the stock -11.84% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.28) and +2.03% above its 200-day simple moving average ($1.97). Across its 52-week range of $0.95 to $3.23, FATE sits at the 46.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.76 to $2.26).

Direct Sub-Reports: FATE RQD Cockpit FATE 12M Forecast FATE Earnings & Move FATE Dividends & DRIP FATE Insiders & 13F FATE Whale Options FATE Profit Sankey FATE News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 35/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

FATE — Fate Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 35/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $2.01 (-3.36% 1D, market capitalization $249.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (7/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Fate Therapeutics Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. Per the FY 2025 financials, reported revenue was $6.6M against an operating loss of -$147.7M, and the recent news wire notes the appointment of a senior vice president for commercialization of CAR T-cell therapies.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) reported $6.6M in annual revenue (up from $13.6M in FY2024, -51.2% YoY) and -$136.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($63.5M revenue, -$160.9M net income) through FY2025, FATE scaled operating cash flow to -$106.1M and free cash flow to -$112.0M, backed by $318.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 35/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.95 – $3.23 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (Health Care), FATE carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can FATE sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $6.6M and free cash flow of -$112.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is FATE's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

FATE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Fate Therapeutics Inc. (FATE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to FATE Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

FATE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.01?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON FATE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on FATE:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.50 (+20.2%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The 215% upside implied by the cut $6.07 price target (TradingView) and the $46.6M reported cash give the stock a potential rebound if

Long FATE at $2.08 targeting $2.50. The 215% upside implied by the cut $6.07 price target (TradingView) and the $46.6M reported cash give the stock a potential rebound if operating burn slows.. Institutional whale score is 8/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $0.95 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@RedlineAuditor Shorting a 8/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $2.08 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Health Care.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.56 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $2.08

Revenue fell from $63.5M to $6.6M across three years while free cash flow remained at -$112.0M, with an RQD score of 36 and insider con

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short FATE above $2.08. Revenue fell from $63.5M to $6.6M across three years while free cash flow remained at -$112.0M, with an RQD score of 36 and insider conviction at 3/20.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $3.23.

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