Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$285.93 +1.13% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $285.97

Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 68/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $32.74B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is EXPE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Expedia Group Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $285.93 (+1.13% 1D, market cap $32.74B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, EXPE ranks #180 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does EXPE compare to XPO and BKNG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), EXPE carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 57.1%. By comparison, XPO (XPO Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 67.8x, ROIC 10.8%, cap $22.09B) and BKNG (Booking Holdings Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 20.9x, ROIC 77.1%, cap $111.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GATX leads on earnings multiple (19.1x) while BKNG leads on capital efficiency (77.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EXPE?
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Per EXPE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001324424), Expedia Group Inc. generated $14.73B in revenue (+7.6% YoY), $1.30B in net income, and $3.11B in free cash flow against $24.45B in total assets and $4.47B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $285.96 (+0.01%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 21.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 68/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.9% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510068
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw A- · Rk D
Cash (18)Whales (14)SEC (10)Macro (9)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.5% Base Target
$359 Bull$299 Base$233 Bear
📬 FREE EXPE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EXPE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (68/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY EXPE SCORES 68/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 21.1% FCF Margin ($3.11B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (52.6) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
60
Grade C$274.69+4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
63
Grade C+$285.64-3.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
65
Grade C+$275.53+3.8% Next Q
Current
68
Grade C+$285.93+1.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (60) → C+ (68)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the EXPE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 68/100 (C+) score, EXPE faces multiple-compression risk if 24.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($283.23) or 200D SMA ($259.06) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($298.80) toward Bear Floor ($233.06).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EXPE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “EXPE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±8%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (EXPE)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for EXPE.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating EXPE & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on EXPE
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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EXPE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.00%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $282.7H $285.9L $282.7C $285.9VOL 1.78M
RES: $395.9SUP: $254.0SMA50: $283.2SMA200: $259.1
$351.5$312.2$272.8$233.5$194.1RES $395.9SUP $254.0$285.92026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EXPE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
18.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EXPE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EXPE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EXPE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EXPE)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #180 of 1011 ⚔️ XPO vs EXPE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (EXPE vs. XPO, BKNG, GATX, HAFN)

Industry: Transportation Services (22 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) ranks #180 by composite RQD confidence (68/100, grade C+) and #65 by equity capitalization ($32.74B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GATX leads on earnings valuation at 19.1x trailing P/E, while BKNG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 77.1% ROIC and — gross margin. BKNG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with EXPE at 68/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
EXPE ACTIVE
Expedia Group Inc.
C+ 68/100 24.9x — 57.1% +1.13% $32.74B Benchmark Subject
XPO
XPO Inc.
D 50/100 67.8x — 10.8% +3.59% $22.09B /xpo-vs-expe →
BKNG
Booking Holdings Inc.
B 74/100 20.9x — 77.1% -1.53% $111.30B /bkng-vs-expe →
GATX
GATX Corporation
D+ 57/100 19.1x — 4.0% +0.37% $6.39B /gatx-vs-expe →
HAFN
Hafnia Limited
C 65/100 — — — -1.72% $5.82B /hafn-vs-expe →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001324424

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) reported GAAP revenue of $14.73B (+7.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $13.69B , and +14.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $1.30B, operating cash flow of $3.88B, and free cash flow of $3.11B (+33.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, EXPE closed FY2025 with $24.45B in total assets against $4.47B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.39, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $14.73B $1.30B $3.88B $3.11B $24.45B $4.47B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $13.69B $1.22B $3.08B $2.33B $22.39B $5.22B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $12.84B $688.0M $2.69B $2.11B $17.80B $4.17B

3. EXPE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EXPE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Expedia Group Inc. (NASDAQ: EXPE) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 68/100 at a spot price of $285.93 (+1.13% 1D, market cap $32.74B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, EXPE ranks #180 in composite RQD confidence.

How does EXPE compare to XPO and BKNG in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), EXPE carries a Roarable C+ (68/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 24.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 57.1%. By comparison, XPO (XPO Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 67.8x, ROIC 10.8%, cap $22.09B) and BKNG (Booking Holdings Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 20.9x, ROIC 77.1%, cap $111.30B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GATX leads on earnings multiple (19.1x) while BKNG leads on capital efficiency (77.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EXPE?

Per EXPE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001324424), Expedia Group Inc. generated $14.73B in revenue (+7.6% YoY), $1.30B in net income, and $3.11B in free cash flow against $24.45B in total assets and $4.47B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is EXPE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EXPE last traded at $285.93 (+1.13% on volume of 1,776,406 shares), positioning the stock +0.95% above its 50-day simple moving average ($283.23) and +10.37% above its 200-day simple moving average ($259.06). Across its 52-week range of $185.34 to $342.00, EXPE sits at the 64.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.0% ($263.06 to $308.80).

EXPE Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is EXPE's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for EXPE.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 68/100 (C+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

EXPE — Expedia Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:12:14Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, EXPE scores 66 out of 100, a letter grade of C+, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental cash engine (18 / 20): Per the RQD rating, ROIC is 57.1% and FCF yield is 9.61%. This is the strongest pillar and indicates the business converts capital into cash efficiently, which is a principal upside driver. The valuation tradeoff is that the market already prices a P/E (TTM) of 24.9 against these cash returns.
  • Whale 13F flow (12 / 20): The rating reflects institutional accumulation and options positioning, but no 13F detail is provided in the source data beyond this score. Moderate institutional support is implied, not quantified.
  • Insider conviction (17 / 20): Per the RQD rating, this reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The score is high, but the individual transactions are not itemized in the source data, so the signal's direction and size cannot be independently verified here.
  • Macro regime fit (9 / 20): Per the RQD rating, beta is 0.88 with sector sensitivity noted. A beta below 1 suggests somewhat lower market-linked volatility than the broader market, while the sub-par pillar score signals limited alignment with the current macro regime.
  • Forensic balance sheet (10 / 20): Per the RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.39, Piotroski F is 7/9, and Debt/Equity is 3.48. The Piotroski score is solid, but the high leverage ratio is the main drag and a key risk for a prospective investor to weigh.

Taken together, the rating points to a stock with strong cash economics and high insider signal, offset by leverage and weaker macro alignment. The "Watch for Breakout" language signals the rating is neutral today with potential for change, not a directional recommendation.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
282.73$32.37B24.923.212.411.360.62%0.88$185.34 - $34257.1%

Business

Expedia Group Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed company in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Transportation Services industry, per the company profile. The profile describes the company as operating in Transportation Services with a market capitalization of $32.4B. Revenue model, customer segments, and monetization details are not available in source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the items include a "3 Reasons to Sell EXPE" headline and an accompanying "Shares Dropping 5.3%" item, both flagged as RED/RISK WATCH in the feed's signals. A Wells Fargo price target cut tied to bookings concerns is flagged RED/RISK WATCH. Other items cover an undervalued-stock framing, a Trefis piece, and a U.S. Chamber of Commerce piece on Uber and Expedia expanding travel experience, all flagged YELLOW/MARKET WIRE. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What is the bookings trend behind the Wells Fargo price target cut, and what specific concerns were cited?
  • What are the terms, maturities, and interest costs of the $4469.0M debt given Debt/Equity of 3.48?
  • What drove the reported EPS to show N/A across all three periods despite positive net income?
  • What is the individual composition of the Form 4 insider and Congressional PTR flows behind the insider pillar score?
  • What was the FY 2023 cash balance, which is not reported in the source data?

EXPE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to EXPE Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

EXPE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $285.93?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON EXPE 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on EXPE:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $305.35 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is EXPE (C+ • RQD 66/100) a Buy at $282.73?

Welcome to the EXPE (Expedia Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 66/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Transportation Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (57.1% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $229.01 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $282.73

Pump the brakes on EXPE — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on EXPE, but look at what you are paying: 24.9x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Expedia Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $330.79 (+17.0%)
Spot @ $282.73

EXPE cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on EXPE, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Transportation Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $282.73 (52-wk range $185.34 - $342.00), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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