Stock Ratings / Financials / EFC / forecast

IIPR (57) BXDC (46) OPEN (37) FOR (29) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$11.41 -3.55% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.32

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 34/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (34/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $1.47B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on EFC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is EFC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Ellington Financial Inc. (NYSE: EFC) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 34/100 at a spot price of $11.41 (-3.55% 1D, market cap $1.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, EFC ranks #987 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does EFC compare to IIPR and BXDC in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), EFC carries a Roarable E (34/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.2%. By comparison, IIPR (Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 12.5x, ROIC 5.4%, cap $1.43B) and BXDC (Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.59B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FOR leads on earnings multiple (7.6x) while FOR leads on capital efficiency (9.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EFC?

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Per EFC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001411342), Ellington Financial Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $150.8M in net income, and -$925.5M in free cash flow against $19.35B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.32 (-0.83%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (34/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for EFC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (34/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY EFC SCORES 34/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+10/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 50% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$11.69-1.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$11.48+1.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$11.70-2.5% Next Q

Current

Grade E$11.41-8.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (42) → E (34)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a EFC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While EFC currently carries a cautious 34/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.29) and Max Pain ($11.98) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $14.83.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $EFC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “EFC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 34%NO 66%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your EFC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $11.41: 876.4 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $7.94

$6,959

$-3,041 (-30.4%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $10.18

$8,922

$-1,078 (-10.8%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $14.83

$12,997

+$2,997 (+30.0%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$11	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$14	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$9	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring EFC)

✓Walkthrough of EFC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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EFC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.30%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $11.83H $11.83L $11.41C $11.41VOL 1.70M

RES: $13.82SUP: $10.84SMA50: $12.29SMA200: $12.87

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

EFC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 EFC Butterfly Map → + Track EFC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-1.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on EFC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for EFC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for EFC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (EFC)

Financials Rank #987 of 1096 ⚔️ IIPR vs EFC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (EFC vs. IIPR, BXDC, OPEN, FOR)

Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) ranks #987 by composite RQD confidence (34/100, grade E) and #488 by equity capitalization ($1.47B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FOR leads on earnings valuation at 7.6x trailing P/E, while FOR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.4% ROIC and — gross margin. IIPR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with EFC at 34/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
EFC ACTIVE Ellington Financial Inc.	E	34/100	10.1x	—	8.2%	-3.55%	$1.47B	Benchmark Subject
IIPR Innovative Industrial Properties Inc.	D+	57/100	12.5x	—	5.4%	-2.66%	$1.43B	/iipr-vs-efc →
BXDC Blackstone Digital Infrastructure Trust Inc.	D	46/100	—	—	—	-2.90%	$1.59B	/bxdc-vs-efc →
OPEN Opendoor Technologies Inc	D-	37/100	—	—	-35.0%	-5.26%	$1.75B	/open-vs-efc →
FOR Forestar Group Inc	E	29/100	7.6x	—	9.4%	-4.36%	$1.22B	/for-vs-efc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001411342

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $150.8M, operating cash flow of -$925.5M, and free cash flow of -$925.5M (-115.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, EFC closed FY2025 with $19.35B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$150.8M	-$925.5M	-$925.5M	$19.35B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$148.1M	-$430.5M	-$430.5M	$16.32B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$87.9K	-$241.9M	-$241.9M	—	—

3. EFC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is EFC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does EFC compare to IIPR and BXDC in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for EFC?

Where is EFC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

EFC last traded at $11.41 (-3.55% on volume of 1,695,162 shares), positioning the stock -7.16% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.29) and -11.34% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.87). Across its 52-week range of $11.28 to $14.12, EFC sits at the 4.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($10.87 to $11.95).

EFC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is EFC's 12-month stock price target?

Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $10.18 (-10.8% from $11.41), with a bull-case target of $14.83 and a bear-case floor of $7.94.

Is EFC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates EFC E (Strong Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 34/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: EFC RQD Cockpit EFC 12M Forecast EFC Earnings & Move EFC Dividends & DRIP EFC Insiders & 13F EFC Whale Options EFC Profit Sankey EFC News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 34/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

EFC — Ellington Financial Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:28:52Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, EFC scores 36 out of 100 with a letter grade of D- and a verdict label of "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 (ROIC 8.2%; FCF yield 0%), Whale/13F Flow at 6/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 10/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 5/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 2/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). The weakest pillars are the cash engine and macro fit, each at 5 of 20. For a prospective investor, the rating signals that the cash-generation case is currently unproven: the FCF yield is 0%, and reported free cash flow was negative in each of the three periods provided. Upside drivers cited in the source data are limited to the modest institutional accumulation and the 8.2% ROIC. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the P/E of 10.1 (TTM) and 9.4 (forward), which sit alongside a 0% dividend yield. The balance sheet pillar is middling rather than distressed, with an Altman Z of 2.5 and Debt/Equity of 0.5, but the Piotroski F of 2/9 indicates weak fundamental quality signals. The rating is an analytical assessment derived from the supplied data, not a personalized recommendation.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$0.0M	$0.0M	$150.8M	N/A	$-925.5M	$201.9M	N/A
FY 2024	$0.0M	$0.0M	$148.1M	N/A	$-430.5M	$192.4M	N/A
FY 2023	$0.0M	$0.0M	$0.1M	N/A	$-241.9M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, reported net income rose from $0.1M in FY 2023 to $148.1M in FY 2024 and $150.8M in FY 2025, while free cash flow remained negative across all three periods. Gross, operating, and net margins are each listed as 0% in the market data, and revenue and operating income are reported as $0.0M, so margin analysis is not meaningful from the supplied figures. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 8.2%, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, and the Piotroski F-Score is 2/9. The Debt/Equity ratio is 0.5 per the forensic balance sheet pillar. Cash is reported at $201.9M for FY 2025 and $192.4M for FY 2024.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Yahoo Finance (GREEN, CATALYST): Headline "Ellington Financial (EFC) Stock Still Looks Like A Bargain Despite Its 37% Run," covering market action and positioning.
The Globe and Mail (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): Headline "3 Reasons to sell EFC and 1 stock to buy instead," a negative-leaning view.
Simply Wall St (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): Headline "Why Everyone Is Watching Ellington Financial (EFC) Right Now."
TradingView (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): Headline referencing the 6.250% Series B Fixed-Rate Reset Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock.
Yahoo Finance (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): Headline on Q2 earnings relative to thrifts and mortgage finance peers.
MarketBeat (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): Headline "Ellington Financial Inc. (NYSE:EFC) Stock Has Consensus Target Price of $14.25."

Risk watch items: the news wire mixes a green catalyst flag with several yellow market-wire flags, and one headline is explicitly negative. The preferred stock headline is a capital-structure item to track. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, there are no proprietary signals and no supply-chain links recorded.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as "NONE," with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Not available in source data for upstream dependencies, downstream customers, sector correlations, or 2nd-order bottlenecks beyond the sector and industry labels (Financials / Real Estate) and the Beta of 1.0.

Open Questions

What is the composition of the reported negative free cash flow across FY 2023 to FY 2025, and what drives the gap between positive net income and negative FCF?
Why is the debt figure listed as N/A for all periods while Debt/Equity is reported at 0.5?
What is the source and basis for the 0% reported revenue and operating income figures, given the positive net income?
Which institutional and insider holders are behind the accumulation signal, and what are their position sizes and timing?
What are the terms and balance-sheet impact of the 6.250% Series B preferred stock referenced in the news wire?

EFC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to EFC Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 19h ago

Ellington Financial (EFC) Stock Still Looks Like A Bargain Despite Its 37% Run

Yahoo Finance report covering Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 22h ago

3 Reasons to sell EFC and 1 stock to buy instead

The Globe and Mail report covering Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 1d ago

Why Everyone Is Watching Ellington Financial (EFC) Right Now

Simply Wall St report covering Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Ellington Financial Inc. 6.250% Series B Fixed-Rate Reset Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock

TradingView report covering Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Q2 Earnings Highs And Lows: Ellington Financial (NYSE:EFC) Vs The Rest Of The Thrifts & Mortgage Finance Stocks

Yahoo Finance report covering Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Ellington Financial Inc. (NYSE:EFC) Stock Has Consensus Target Price of $14.25

MarketBeat report covering Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

PennyMac Financial Services, Ladder Capital, Ellington Financial, and Coastal Financial Stocks Trade Up, What You Need To Know

TradingView report covering Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Sure Dividend • 1d ago

Top 20 Highest Yielding Monthly Dividend Stocks Now | Yields Up To 32.8%

Sure Dividend report covering Ellington Financial Inc. (EFC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

EFC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.41?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON EFC 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $10.41 (-12.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is EFC (D- • RQD 36/100) a Buy at $11.83?

Welcome to the EFC (Ellington Financial Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 36/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Real Estate. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.82 (-17.0%)

Spot @ $11.83

Pump the brakes on EFC — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on EFC, but look at what you are paying: 10.1x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Ellington Financial Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.60 (+15.0%)

Spot @ $11.83

EFC cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on EFC, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Real Estate and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $11.83 (52-wk range $11.28 - $14.12), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.