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Stock Ratings / Health Care / DNA / forecast
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Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. (Class A) (DNA) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$11.21 -12.01% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.95

Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. (Class A) (DNA) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $721.3M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on DNA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is DNA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: DNA) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $11.21 (-12.01% 1D, market cap $721.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, DNA ranks #592 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does DNA compare to ATTO and SANA in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), DNA carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ATTO (Attovia Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $693.4M) and SANA (Sana Biotechnology Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $769.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DNA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while DNA leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DNA?
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Per DNA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001830214), Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $170.2M in revenue (-25.1% YoY), -$313.0K in net income, and -$178.7M in free cash flow against $1.12B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.95 (-2.35%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510035
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk E
Cash (7)Whales (13)SEC (5)Macro (7)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.3% Base Target
$19 Bull$10 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE DNA RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for DNA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY DNA SCORES 35/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (37% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+7/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
43
Grade D$11.76-16.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
40
Grade D$9.86+14.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
38
Grade E$11.27-0.5% Next Q
Current
35
Grade D-$11.21-8.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (43) → D- (35)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a DNA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While DNA currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($9.74) and Max Pain ($11.77) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.13.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $DNA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “DNA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your DNA Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $11.21: 892.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $7.84
$6,994
$-3,006 (-30.1%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $10.05
$8,965
$-1,035 (-10.3%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $19.13
$17,065
+$7,065 (+70.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1074%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1869%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$958%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring DNA)

  • ✓Walkthrough of DNA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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DNA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.12%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $12.74H $12.74L $11.21C $11.21VOL 2.73M
RES: $19.68SUP: $5.92SMA50: $9.74SMA200: $8.61
$19.04$15.64$12.23$8.82$5.41RES $19.68SUP $5.92$11.212026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

DNA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 DNA Butterfly Map → + Track DNA →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -25.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on DNA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for DNA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for DNA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (DNA)

Health Care Rank #592 of 1016 ⚔️ ATTO vs DNA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (DNA vs. ATTO, SANA, SLBT, SLDB)

Industry: Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. (Class A) (DNA) ranks #592 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #393 by equity capitalization ($721.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DNA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while DNA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SLBT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 45/100 (D) compared with DNA at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
DNA ACTIVE
Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. (Class A)
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% -12.01% $721.3M Benchmark Subject
ATTO
Attovia Therapeutics Inc.
D 44/100 — — — -0.52% $693.4M /atto-vs-dna →
SANA
Sana Biotechnology Inc.
E 33/100 — — -35.0% -5.51% $769.4M /sana-vs-dna →
SLBT
SL Science Holding Limited
D 45/100 — — — +2.56% $672.9M /slbt-vs-dna →
SLDB
Solid Biosciences Inc.
E 26/100 — — -35.0% -2.97% $664.8M /sldb-vs-dna →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001830214

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. (Class A) (DNA) reported GAAP revenue of $170.2M (-25.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $227.0M , and -32.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$313.0K, operating cash flow of -$171.1M, and free cash flow of -$178.7M (+53.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, DNA closed FY2025 with $1.12B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $170.2M -$313.0K -$171.1M -$178.7M $1.12B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $227.0M -$547.0K -$319.6M -$382.1M $1.38B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $251.5M -$893.0K -$295.5M -$295.5M — —

3. DNA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is DNA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: DNA) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $11.21 (-12.01% 1D, market cap $721.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, DNA ranks #592 in composite RQD confidence.

How does DNA compare to ATTO and SANA in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances)), DNA carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, ATTO (Attovia Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $693.4M) and SANA (Sana Biotechnology Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $769.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DNA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while DNA leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for DNA?

Per DNA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001830214), Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. (Class A) generated $170.2M in revenue (-25.1% YoY), -$313.0K in net income, and -$178.7M in free cash flow against $1.12B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is DNA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

DNA last traded at $11.21 (-12.01% on volume of 2,730,472 shares), positioning the stock +15.09% above its 50-day simple moving average ($9.74) and +30.20% above its 200-day simple moving average ($8.61). Across its 52-week range of $5.37 to $18.22, DNA sits at the 45.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($9.81 to $12.61).

Direct Sub-Reports: DNA RQD Cockpit DNA 12M Forecast DNA Earnings & Move DNA Dividends & DRIP DNA Insiders & 13F DNA Whale Options DNA Profit Sankey DNA News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 35/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

DNA — Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:32:38Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, DNA scores 37 out of 100 and receives a letter grade of D-, with the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 7 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of -21.8%. For a prospective investor, this indicates the business is currently consuming cash relative to its capital base rather than generating a cash return, which limits the valuation support available from current operations.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 15 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning.
  • Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The low score indicates insider flow provides limited confirmation of conviction in the stock.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 7 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the beta is 1.0 and the pillar reflects sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is expected to move in line with the market, offering no defensive cushion in a downturn.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 5 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects an Altman Z-Score of 2.5, a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.5. The weak Piotroski reading is the most notable balance-sheet-quality signal in the rating.

Taken together, the pillar scores point to fundamental and forensic weakness, partly offset by institutional flow. Upside drivers would need to come from a turnaround in cash generation, which the current ROIC and FCF yield do not yet show. Valuation tradeoffs are significant: with no reported EPS or P/E in the source data, the market is pricing the stock on factors the dataset does not fully quantify. This analysis is educational and not personalized financial advice.

Business

is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances) industry. Per the SEC financials, FY 2025 revenue was $170.2M, down from $227.0M in FY 2024, indicating the company generates revenue but at a declining rate across the reported periods.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the news feed, the recent coverage includes a Yahoo Finance report on analysts reassessing AI demand (classified YELLOW), a Benzinga report on Friday stock movement (YELLOW), and a Seeking Alpha report stating that the valuation has outrun the business (YELLOW). A Yahoo Finance report on a market-uptick decline was flagged as RISK WATCH (RED). Per the news feed, CFO Steven Coen sold $7,769 of company stock, per an Investing.com report. A Motley Fool report describes a deal with Eli Lilly followed by a share price doubling. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph contains no supply-chain links or proprietary signals.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's products and revenue sources, given that revenue fell from $227.0M to $170.2M between FY 2024 and FY 2025?
  • What is the status and size of the Eli Lilly arrangement referenced in the news feed, and does it affect future revenue?
  • What drove the cash decline from $561.6M to $167.2M, and what is the remaining runway at the reported negative free cash flow?
  • Why are EPS, P/E, forward P/E, and EV/EBITDA unavailable, and how should the valuation be assessed without them?
  • What are the institutional 13F holdings and options positioning behind the whale flow score of 15 / 20?

DNA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings Inc. (Class A) (DNA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to DNA Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

DNA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.21?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON DNA 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on DNA:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.57 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional whale 13F flow scores 15 / 20, the strongest pillar in the Roarable RQD rating.

Here is why I am bullish on DNA here at $11.21: Institutional whale 13F flow scores 15 / 20, the strongest pillar in the Roarable RQD rating.. Compare DNA's -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against the rest of Biotechnology: Biological Products (No Diagnostic Substances). As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $10.65 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@DeltaGamma_99 Agree on the RQD 35/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $11.21 and keeping dry powder in case we test $10.43.

FO ForensicBear 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.41 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $11.21

ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -21.8% show the business is consuming cash, with a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short DNA above $11.21. ROIC of -35% and FCF yield of -21.8% show the business is consuming cash, with a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20) and FCF yield (-21.8%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $18.22.

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