Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±8.9% Move

DCO scores 40 out of 100, earning a letter grade of D- and the verdict label "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars are scored as follows:

• Fundamental cash engine: 7 / 20. The rating cites ROIC of -3.1% and an FCF yield of -1.92%. For an investor, this indicates the business is not currently generating returns above its cost of capital or positive free cash flow relative to its market value. Any upside case would depend on a turnaround in operating performance rather than on existing cash generation.
• Whale / 13F flow: 10 / 20. The rating references institutional accumulation and options positioning. This is a moderate score, suggesting institutional interest is present but not strongly one-directional.
• Insider conviction: 3 / 20. The rating references SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. This is the weakest pillar relative to its maximum and signals limited insider-side confidence signals in the source data.
• Macro regime fit: 8 / 20. The rating cites a beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. A beta of 1.0 means the stock is modeled to move in line with the broader market; the score reflects limited regime-based tailwinds.
• Forensic balance sheet: 12 / 20. The rating cites an Altman Z-Score of 4.43, a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.45. The Altman Z-Score figure sits in a range typically associated with lower near-term distress risk, and the Piotroski score is mid-range, so the balance sheet is the relatively stronger pillar, though not decisively so.

Reported FY 2025 net income and operating income were negative, which is consistent with the negative margins and ROIC above. A prospective investor should weigh that the price of $168.06 sits within a 52-week range of $84.76 to $210.39, without earnings support in the provided data to anchor it.

Upside drivers (as implied by the data): A return to positive operating income, as seen in FY 2024 ($42.2M), would be the most direct path to improving the cash-engine and ROIC pillars.

Downside risks: The FY 2025 swing to negative net income (-$37.4M) and negative free cash flow (-$48.6M), combined with debt rising to $300.0M from $230.7M in FY 2024, represents the principal vulnerability the rating identifies.

Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Industrials sector and the Military/Government/Technical industry. Revenue figures are reported in the Financial Trend section below.

Revenue rose from $757.0M in FY 2023 to $824.8M in FY 2025, while operating income moved from $28.9M to $42.2M in FY 2024 before turning to -$35.7M in FY 2025. Per the market data, gross margin is 26.9%, operating margin is -4.3%, and net margin is -4.5%. ROIC is -3.1%. The forensic metrics include an Altman Z-Score of 4.43 and a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, with Debt/Equity at 0.45. Reported debt grew from $230.7M to $300.0M between FY 2024 and FY 2025 against cash of $45.3M.

• 🐂 Primary Bull Case: The Altman Z-Score of 4.43 and Debt/Equity of 0.45 indicate a balance sheet that the rating scores as relatively stronger than its cash engine. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 (ROIC -3.1%, FCF yield -1.92%) and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $84.76 – $210.39 52-week range.
• 🐻 Primary Bear Case: Negative FY 2025 net income (-$37.4M), negative FCF (-$48.6M), and debt rising to $300.0M leave the cash engine and ROIC (-3.1%) as the primary weakness. Investors must weigh current valuation against -4.3% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be identified from the source data. Sector correlations are limited to the Industrials classification and the Military/Government/Technical industry. A prospective investor should note that the absence of mapped supply-chain links means second-order bottleneck analysis is not supported by these sources.

• Key Question #1: What are the valuation multiples (P/E, forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, EPS TTM) given that earnings are negative in FY 2025?
• Key Question #2: What drove the swing from positive FY 2024 operating income ($42.2M) to negative FY 2025 operating income (-$35.7M)?
• Key Question #3: What is the composition and maturity schedule of the $300.0M debt balance, and how is it being serviced given negative FCF?