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Stock Ratings / Utilities / CWST / options
GFL (72) WCN (73) OIO (50) RSG (81) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CWST) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$93.33 +3.34% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $93.71

Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CWST) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) β†’
ROARABLE C- β€’ HOLD / WATCH Cap $5.94B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on CWST Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CWST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Casella Waste Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CWST) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $93.33 (+3.34% 1D, market cap $5.94B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, CWST ranks #34 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CWST compare to GFL and WCN in the Utilities sector?
β–Ό

Within the Utilities sector (Environmental Services), CWST carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 33.8%, and ROIC of 2.4%. By comparison, GFL (GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate voting shares no par value) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $19.71B) and WCN (Waste Connections Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 42.3x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $46.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GFL leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while RSG leads on capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CWST?
β–Ό

Per CWST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000911177), Casella Waste Systems Inc. generated $1.84B in revenue (+18.0% YoY), $7.9M in net income, and $84.7M in free cash flow against $3.30B in total assets and $773.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $93.71 (+0.41%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) β€’ 4.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 53.5% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH β€’ C-
025507510060
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ Β· Rk C
Cash (13)Whales (12)SEC (14)Macro (11)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target
$113 Bull$94 Base$73 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE CWST RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CWST)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±7.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY CWST SCORES 60/100 (C-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.77 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4.6% FCF Margin ($84.7M FCF) & 33.8% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 10 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
52
Grade C-$81.85+10.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
55
Grade C$90.22-1.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
57
Grade C$88.53+5.4% Next Q
Current
60
Grade C-$93.33+0.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C- (52) β†’ C- (60)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the CWST Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, CWST faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (+0.52% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 31.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($88.63) or 200D SMA ($89.88) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($94.17) toward Bear Floor ($73.45).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CWSTβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œCWST Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±7.6%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (CWST)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for CWST.

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FTC Disclosure: Roarable may receive partner referral compensation at no cost to you. Partner relationships never influence RQD scores.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating CWST & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on CWST
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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CWST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.02%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $90.31H $93.33L $90.31C $93.33VOL 535.0K
RES: $98.23SUP: $71.48SMA50: $88.63SMA200: $89.88
$103.2$95.98$88.75$81.52$74.29RES $98.23SUP $71.48$93.332026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CWST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ CWST Butterfly Map β†’ + Track CWST β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
22.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CWST today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CWST. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CWST today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CWST)

Utilities Rank #34 of 117 βš”οΈ GFL vs CWST Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (CWST vs. GFL, WCN, OIO, RSG)

Industry: Environmental Services (13 Tracked Issuers)

Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CWST) ranks #34 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #52 by equity capitalization ($5.94B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GFL leads on earnings valuation at 32.8x trailing P/E, while RSG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.9% ROIC and 42.0% gross margin. RSG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 81/100 (A-) compared with CWST at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CWST ACTIVE
Casella Waste Systems Inc.
C- 60/100 β€” 33.8% 2.4% +3.34% $5.94B Benchmark Subject
GFL
GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate voting shares no par value
B 72/100 32.8x β€” 9.9% +0.38% $19.71B /gfl-vs-cwst β†’
WCN
Waste Connections Inc.
B 73/100 42.3x 42.4% 9.9% +1.16% $46.05B /wcn-vs-cwst β†’
OIO
OIO Group
D 50/100 β€” β€” β€” +0.53% $661.2M /oio-vs-cwst β†’
RSG
Republic Services Inc.
A- 81/100 33.8x 42.0% 13.9% +3.28% $74.73B /rsg-vs-cwst β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000911177

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CWST) reported GAAP revenue of $1.84B (+18.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.56B , and +45.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $7.9M, operating cash flow of $329.8M, and free cash flow of $84.7M (+8.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, CWST closed FY2025 with $3.30B in total assets against $773.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.77, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.84B $7.9M $329.8M $84.7M $3.30B $773.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.56B $13.5M $281.4M $78.1M $3.23B $755.8M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.26B $25.4M $233.1M $176.2M $3.16B $739.7M

3. CWST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CWST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Casella Waste Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CWST) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $93.33 (+3.34% 1D, market cap $5.94B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, CWST ranks #34 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CWST compare to GFL and WCN in the Utilities sector?

Within the Utilities sector (Environmental Services), CWST carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 33.8%, and ROIC of 2.4%. By comparison, GFL (GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate voting shares no par value) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $19.71B) and WCN (Waste Connections Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 42.3x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $46.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GFL leads on earnings multiple (32.8x) while RSG leads on capital efficiency (13.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CWST?

Per CWST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000911177), Casella Waste Systems Inc. generated $1.84B in revenue (+18.0% YoY), $7.9M in net income, and $84.7M in free cash flow against $3.30B in total assets and $773.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CWST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CWST last traded at $93.33 (+3.34% on volume of 535,049 shares), positioning the stock +5.30% above its 50-day simple moving average ($88.63) and +3.84% above its 200-day simple moving average ($89.88). Across its 52-week range of $74.05 to $107.96, CWST sits at the 56.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±7.6% ($86.24 to $100.42).

Direct Sub-Reports: CWST RQD Cockpit CWST 12M Forecast CWST Earnings & Move CWST Dividends & DRIP CWST Insiders & 13F CWST Whale Options CWST Profit Sankey CWST News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 60/100 (C-) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

CWST β€” Casella Waste Systems Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:19:49Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, CWST scores 57 out of 100, a D+ grade with the verdict "Roarable Sell β€” Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 (ROIC 2.4%; FCF yield 1.47%), Whale 13F Flow at 10/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 10/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 10/20 (Beta 0.63; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 14/20 (Altman Z 2.77; Piotroski F 7/9; Debt/Equity 0.42). The strongest pillar is the balance sheet, which the source data describes as forensically sound. The weakest pillars are flow-related (whale and insider), and the cash-engine pillar is held back by a low return on invested capital and a thin free cash flow yield. For a prospective investor, the upside case rests on balance-sheet durability and the low-beta profile, while the valuation tradeoff is that the rating's cash-return metrics (ROIC 2.4%, FCF yield 1.47%) sit well below the 3.4% dividend yield cited in market data, and EV/EBITDA of 23.1 indicates the market is pricing in more than the current cash-return profile supports. Investors should treat the rating as a reflection of current source data rather than a forecast.

Business

Casella Waste Systems Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Utilities sector and Environmental Services industry.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, the headlines cover an earnings beat with attention on the stock, a report that the stock was down 3.1% and undervalued, a Benzinga long-horizon return piece, and two items referencing Jana Partners disclosing a stake and pitching at a 13D Monitor summit (one item tagged as a catalyst, one as a Seeking Alpha item tagged as a catalyst). A FinancialContent Q2 teardown comparing CWST to waste management peers is also present. Items are tagged GREEN (catalyst) or YELLOW (market wire) in the feed. Risk watch items

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals recorded. The source data therefore does not identify upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations for CWST. Investors should watch whether the Jana Partners stake referenced in the news feed generates any follow-on disclosures, since the source provides no mechanism to assess second-order effects from it.

Open Questions

  • What drove the decline in net income from $25.4M (FY 2023) to $7.9M (FY 2025) despite revenue growth, and does the 0.4% net margin reflect a structural or temporary change?
  • Why did cash fall from $358.3M to $123.8M while debt increased, and what capital allocation decisions account for the change?
  • What are the TTM EPS and forward P/E, given that both are unavailable in the source data and the EV/EBITDA of 23.1 cannot be reconciled to an earnings multiple?
  • What is the company's specific business mix and revenue breakdown, since the source data provides only sector and industry classification?
  • What is the scope and intent of the Jana Partners stake referenced in the news feed, and does it carry any disclosed governance or strategic objectives?

CWST Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Casella Waste Systems Inc. (CWST) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to CWST Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CWST Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $93.33?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CWST 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CWST:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $97.53 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is CWST (D+ β€’ RQD 57/100) a Buy at $90.31?

Welcome to the CWST (Casella Waste Systems Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 57/100 (Roarable Sell β€” Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Environmental Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $71.34 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $90.31

Pump the brakes on CWST β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on CWST, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with 33.8% gross margins. Unless Casella Waste Systems Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $102.95 (+14.0%)
Spot @ $90.31

CWST cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on CWST, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Environmental Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $90.31 (52-wk range $74.05 - $107.96), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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