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Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$72.08 -0.63% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $71.86

Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $18.42B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CRCL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Circle Internet Group Inc. (NYSE: CRCL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $72.08 (-0.63% 1D, market cap $18.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CRCL ranks #813 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CRCL compare to EFX and SOFI in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), CRCL carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, EFX (Equifax Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 31.8x, ROIC 10.2%, cap $21.60B) and SOFI (SoFi Technologies Inc.) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E 47.3x, ROIC 2.1%, cap $21.65B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SYF leads on earnings multiple (6.7x) while EFX leads on capital efficiency (10.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CRCL?
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Per CRCL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001876042), Circle Internet Group Inc. generated $109.8M in revenue (+624.0% YoY), -$69.5M in net income, and $529.7M in free cash flow against $78.71B in total assets and $33.92B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $71.86 (-0.30%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 482.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510044
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D-
Cash (12)Whales (7)SEC (11)Macro (5)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target
$147 Bull$68 Base$53 Bear
📬 FREE CRCL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CRCL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CRCL SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 482.3% FCF Margin ($529.7M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (39.6) create a -15 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
52
Grade C-$79.55+12.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
49
Grade D$89.71-8.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
47
Grade D$81.71-11.8% Next Q
Current
44
Grade D$72.08-6.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (52) → D (44)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CRCL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CRCL currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($86.56) and Max Pain ($75.68) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $147.00.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CRCL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CRCL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 44%NO 56%Trade / Inspect Odds →
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

CRCL Smart-Money Thermometer: BALANCED INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (CRCL)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on CRCL. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CRCL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CRCL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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CRCL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -39.70%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $79.99H $79.99L $72.08C $72.08VOL 16.27M
RES: $88.80SUP: $71.63SMA50: $86.56SMA200: $86.09
$145.8$121.9$98.10$74.27$50.45RES $88.80SUP $71.63$72.082026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CRCL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CRCL Butterfly Map → + Track CRCL →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
26.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +624.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CRCL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CRCL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CRCL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CRCL)

Financials Rank #813 of 1097 ⚔️ EFX vs CRCL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CRCL vs. EFX, SOFI, TRU, SYF)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) ranks #813 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #121 by equity capitalization ($18.42B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SYF leads on earnings valuation at 6.7x trailing P/E, while EFX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.2% ROIC and — gross margin. EFX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with CRCL at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CRCL ACTIVE
Circle Internet Group Inc.
D 44/100 — — -0.2% -0.63% $18.42B Benchmark Subject
EFX
Equifax Inc.
B- 71/100 31.8x — 10.2% +4.29% $21.60B /efx-vs-crcl →
SOFI
SoFi Technologies Inc.
E 32/100 47.3x — 2.1% -0.95% $21.65B /sofi-vs-crcl →
TRU
TransUnion
C 63/100 31.6x — 8.0% +3.18% $14.64B /tru-vs-crcl →
SYF
Synchrony Financial
C+ 69/100 6.7x — 7.6% +1.95% $23.46B /syf-vs-crcl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001876042 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) reported GAAP revenue of $109.8M (+624.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $15.2M , and +453.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$69.5M, operating cash flow of $542.1M, and free cash flow of $529.7M (+62.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, CRCL closed FY2025 with $78.71B in total assets against $33.92B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $109.8M -$69.5M $542.1M $529.7M $78.71B $33.92B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $15.2M $155.7M $344.6M $326.4M $45.83B $19.86B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $19.9M $267.6M $139.6M $138.7M $11.17B $2.61B

3. CRCL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CRCL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Circle Internet Group Inc. (NYSE: CRCL) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $72.08 (-0.63% 1D, market cap $18.42B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, CRCL ranks #813 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CRCL compare to EFX and SOFI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), CRCL carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, EFX (Equifax Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 31.8x, ROIC 10.2%, cap $21.60B) and SOFI (SoFi Technologies Inc.) posts a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E 47.3x, ROIC 2.1%, cap $21.65B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SYF leads on earnings multiple (6.7x) while EFX leads on capital efficiency (10.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CRCL?

Per CRCL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001876042), Circle Internet Group Inc. generated $109.8M in revenue (+624.0% YoY), -$69.5M in net income, and $529.7M in free cash flow against $78.71B in total assets and $33.92B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CRCL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CRCL last traded at $72.08 (-0.63% on volume of 9,168,132 shares), positioning the stock -16.73% below its 50-day simple moving average ($86.56) and -16.27% below its 200-day simple moving average ($86.09). Across its 52-week range of $49.90 to $140.00, CRCL sits at the 24.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 39.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($63.07 to $81.09).

Direct Sub-Reports: CRCL RQD Cockpit CRCL 12M Forecast CRCL Earnings & Move CRCL Dividends & DRIP CRCL Insiders & 13F CRCL Whale Options CRCL Profit Sankey CRCL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 44/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CRCL — Circle Internet Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 44/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $72.08 (-0.63% 1D, market capitalization $18.42B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -0.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of 2.61%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.10x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Circle Internet Group Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Finance: Consumer Services industry.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) reported $109.8M in annual revenue (up from $15.2M in FY2024, +624.0% YoY) and -$69.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($19.9M revenue, $267.6M net income) through FY2025, CRCL scaled operating cash flow to $542.1M and free cash flow to $529.7M, backed by $78.71B in total assets against $33.92B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 44/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 2.61% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $49.90 – $140.00 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.10x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The supply_chain field is NONE, butterfly_links is empty, and proprietary_signals is empty. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are — The only cross-company context in the news feed is the mention of Coinbase and Strategy alongside CRCL in one headline, which the source does not analyze further.

  • Key Question #1: Can CRCL sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -0.2% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $109.8M and free cash flow of $529.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $33.92B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CRCL's 34.0x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.10x)?

CRCL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Circle Internet Group Inc. (CRCL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CRCL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CRCL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $72.08?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CRCL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CRCL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $91.40 (+26.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Free cash flow of $529.7M in FY 2025 and a 2.61% FCF yield sit alongside revenue growth from $15.2M to $109.8M.

Long CRCL at $72.54 targeting $91.40. Free cash flow of $529.7M in FY 2025 and a 2.61% FCF yield sit alongside revenue growth from $15.2M to $109.8M.. Institutional whale score is 7/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $49.90 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Fair point on 34.0x forward P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Finance: Consumer Services. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $56.58 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $72.54

Operating margin of -60% and ROIC of -0.2% combine with debt rising to $33.92B against $1.53B in cash.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on CRCL: Operating margin of -60% and ROIC of -0.2% combine with debt rising to $33.92B against $1.53B in cash.. At 34.0x forward P/E, even a small guidance miss in Finance: Consumer Services triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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