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Claros Mortgage Trust Inc. (CMTG) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$1.14 -0.87% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.14

Claros Mortgage Trust Inc. (CMTG) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 21/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $162.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is CMTG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Claros Mortgage Trust Inc. (NYSE: CMTG) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $1.14 (-0.87% 1D, market cap $162.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CMTG ranks #1086 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does CMTG compare to AOMR and CHCI in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), CMTG carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -31.9%. By comparison, AOMR (Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E 3.8x, ROIC 16.5%, cap $163.0M) and CHCI (Comstock Holding Companies Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 11.3x, ROIC 24.4%, cap $184.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AOMR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while DOUG leads on capital efficiency (52.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CMTG?
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Per CMTG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001666291), Claros Mortgage Trust Inc. generated $187.8M in revenue (-24.4% YoY), -$489.1M in net income, and -$30.5M in free cash flow against $4.72B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.14 (-0.35%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (21/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510021
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (4)Whales (3)SEC (8)Macro (3)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16.7% Base Target
$4 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE CMTG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for CMTG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (21/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY CMTG SCORES 21/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (38% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 1/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+4/20 pts (19% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
29
Grade E$1.20-7.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
26
Grade E$1.11+9.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
24
Grade E$1.22-6.6% Next Q
Current
21
Grade E$1.14-11.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (29) → E (21)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a CMTG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While CMTG currently carries a cautious 21/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.35) and Max Pain ($1.20) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.80.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $CMTG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “CMTG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 21%NO 79%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±10.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (CMTG)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for CMTG.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring CMTG)

  • ✓Walkthrough of CMTG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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CMTG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -54.76%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $1.18H $1.18L $1.14C $1.14VOL 559.6K
RES: $1.19SUP: $1.01SMA50: $1.35SMA200: $2.12
$3.16$2.60$2.04$1.48$0.92RES $1.19SUP $1.01$1.142026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

CMTG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 CMTG Butterfly Map → + Track CMTG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -24.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on CMTG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for CMTG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for CMTG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (CMTG)

Financials Rank #1086 of 1096 ⚔️ AOMR vs CMTG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (CMTG vs. AOMR, CHCI, DOUG, BEEP)

Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Claros Mortgage Trust Inc. (CMTG) ranks #1086 by composite RQD confidence (21/100, grade E) and #916 by equity capitalization ($162.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AOMR leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while DOUG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 52.5% ROIC and — gross margin. CHCI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 57/100 (D+) compared with CMTG at 21/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
CMTG ACTIVE
Claros Mortgage Trust Inc.
E 21/100 — — -31.9% -0.87% $162.2M Benchmark Subject
AOMR
Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc.
D- 37/100 3.8x — 16.5% +1.85% $163.0M /aomr-vs-cmtg →
CHCI
Comstock Holding Companies Inc. (Class A)
D+ 57/100 11.3x — 24.4% +2.56% $184.7M /chci-vs-cmtg →
DOUG
Douglas Elliman Inc.
D- 35/100 9.6x — 52.5% +3.23% $140.9M /doug-vs-cmtg →
BEEP
Mobile Infrastructure Corporation
D- 38/100 — — -15.2% -4.76% $104.1M /beep-vs-cmtg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001666291

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Claros Mortgage Trust Inc. (CMTG) reported GAAP revenue of $187.8M (-24.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $248.4M , and -38.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$489.1M, operating cash flow of -$30.5M, and free cash flow of -$30.5M (-136.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, CMTG closed FY2025 with $4.72B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $187.8M -$489.1M -$30.5M -$30.5M $4.72B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $248.4M -$221.3M $84.5M $84.5M $6.97B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $306.6M $6.0M $111.1M $111.1M — —

3. CMTG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is CMTG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Claros Mortgage Trust Inc. (NYSE: CMTG) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 21/100 at a spot price of $1.14 (-0.87% 1D, market cap $162.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, CMTG ranks #1086 in composite RQD confidence.

How does CMTG compare to AOMR and CHCI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), CMTG carries a Roarable E (21/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -31.9%. By comparison, AOMR (Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E 3.8x, ROIC 16.5%, cap $163.0M) and CHCI (Comstock Holding Companies Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 11.3x, ROIC 24.4%, cap $184.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, AOMR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while DOUG leads on capital efficiency (52.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for CMTG?

Per CMTG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001666291), Claros Mortgage Trust Inc. generated $187.8M in revenue (-24.4% YoY), -$489.1M in net income, and -$30.5M in free cash flow against $4.72B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is CMTG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

CMTG last traded at $1.14 (-0.87% on volume of 554,636 shares), positioning the stock -15.56% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.35) and -46.23% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.12). Across its 52-week range of $1.09 to $3.62, CMTG sits at the 2.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.5% ($1.02 to $1.26).

Direct Sub-Reports: CMTG RQD Cockpit CMTG 12M Forecast CMTG Earnings & Move CMTG Dividends & DRIP CMTG Insiders & 13F CMTG Whale Options CMTG Profit Sankey CMTG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 21/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

CMTG — Claros Mortgage Trust Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Claros Mortgage Trust Inc. (CMTG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 21/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $1.14 (-0.87% 1D, market capitalization $162.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -31.9%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -18.30%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (3/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 1/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Claros Mortgage Trust Inc. Is listed on the NYSE and classified under the Financials sector and Real Estate industry. The profile describes the company as a Financials issuer operating in Real Estate.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Claros Mortgage Trust Inc. (CMTG) reported $187.8M in annual revenue (up from $248.4M in FY2024, -24.4% YoY) and -$489.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($306.6M revenue, $6.0M net income) through FY2025, CMTG scaled operating cash flow to -$30.5M and free cash flow to -$30.5M, backed by $4.72B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 21/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -18.30% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.09 – $3.62 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependency mapping is therefore — Sector and industry context is limited to Financials and Real Estate.

  • Key Question #1: Can CMTG sustain or expand its — operating margin and -31.9% ROIC against Real Estate peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $187.8M and free cash flow of -$30.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is CMTG's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

CMTG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Claros Mortgage Trust Inc. (CMTG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to CMTG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

CMTG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.14?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON CMTG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on CMTG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.41 (+22.6%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional flow scores 9 of 20 in the RQD rating, the strongest of its five pillars, indicating some measurable accumulation and opt

The street is overcomplicating Claros Mortgage Trust Inc. (CMTG). Institutional flow scores 9 of 20 in the RQD rating, the strongest of its five pillars, indicating some measurable accumulation and options positioning.. With an RQD score of 21/100 (E) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 8/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $1.24.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 3/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $1.15 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.91 (-20.9%)
Spot @ $1.15

ROIC of -31.9%, FCF yield of -18.3%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 show weak cash generation and forensic balance-sheet stress.

ROIC of -31.9%, FCF yield of -18.3%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 1/9 show weak cash generation and forensic balance-sheet stress.. Look at the math on CMTG: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -31.9% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Real Estate demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $1.01 before getting long.

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